CFB: Notre Dame Fighting Irish Playoff First Round Preview

By Stiofán Mac Fhilib

The College Football Playoff is upon us, and what a way to start the weekend. Indiana will travel to South Bend to take on the Fighting Irish under the lights on Friday evening.  Our Notre Dame columnist, Stiofán Mac Fhilib, gives you the lowdown on what will be a memorable game. 

The Week Ahead

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Indiana Hoosiers (Notre Dame Stadium); 8.00pm EST / 1.00am GMT

From Knute Rockne’s popularisation of the forward pass to his ‘Notre Dame Box formation’. From Rock’s barnstorming ‘We’ll play ‘em anywhere’ coast-to-coast train trips to play top programs to signing the first ever TV contract for a single school with a single television station. Notre Dame has been at the forefront of college football innovation for over a century. 

So, as EPSN and College GameDay roll into town for the first-ever home playoff game in the sport’s long history, it is surely appropriate that it is hosted by the most storied program in college football and, of course, the venue for College GameDay’s first-ever on-campus broadcast: Notre Dame Stadium. 

A turn of events that seemed as inevitable after ND’s first game this season, as it seemed unlikely after the second, has finally come to pass. And it brings a match-up of two teams with some striking similarities, coupled with obvious differences. 

Notre Dame are college football royalty and a true blue blood of the sport. Indiana are also both of those, but in basketball. In football, they’ve had 14 losing seasons since 2008; the Irish have had just one. The Hoosiers had just nine wins in three seasons before Curt Cignetti left James Maddison for Bloomington, IA. 

Marcus Freeman has focused heavily on high school recruiting, in-program development and culture en route to his 30-9 record to date. Cignetti brought in 31 transfers when he arrived in Indiana a year ago, including 13 from his previous program. Both programs went 11-1 in the regular season.  Notre Dame lost their second game; the Hoosiers lost their second last.

For all of Freeman’s in-house development, though, both teams have an experienced portal QB in his last year of eligibility: Duke transfer Riley Leonard and Ohio transfer Kurtis Rourke. The latter is the better passer, but much less mobile. Curiously, when their passing and running stats are combined, Leonard has the greater but only by 11 yards. His total TD-INT ratio is 30-5, compared to Rourke’s 29-4. 

History favours the Irish. ND are 23-5-1 all-time against their in-state rivals. They haven’t met since Notre Dame’s 49-27 home win back in 1991. The Hoosiers’ last win was 20-7 at home in 1950. Their only victory in South Bend came in the very first game in the series in 1898. All of which counts for very little in the first meeting of the 21st century. 

Both teams have question marks over the strength of much of the opposition they have faced. Notre Dame has a defense with National Championship-worthy stats in the regular season, but without that calibre of opposition. The best passing attack they faced caused them some issues at USC. Can Cignetti use any of Lincoln Riley’s approach to hurt what ND see as the strength of their defense? Or will the sub-zero weather be a factor in negating whatever advantage the IU passing threat might otherwise have? The Hoosiers have the advantage at the WR position, with their leading receiver, Elijah Sarratt, having more than twice as many yards as ND’s highest. 

Conversely, the Hoosier’s rush defense is exceptional statistically, but they have yet to face a rushing attack even remotely as dangerous as Notre Dame’s. The injury-depleted Irish OL reached its peak in the LA Coliseum, and if they can continue that form into the playoffs, then Love, Price and Leonard will keep any Defensive Coordinator awake at night.

How IU fared in their two toughest games, a narrow 20-15 home win over Michigan and a 15-38 beat-down at Ohio State, might be the best indicator of what Irish fans can expect on Friday night. 

Michigan held them to 246 yards and OSU to 153. The Buckeyes pressured Rourke all afternoon, sacking him repeatedly and holding him to 8 of 18 for 68 yards through the air. With Howard Cross returning to join Rylie Mills at DT, Irish DC, Al Golden, will presumably try to adopt a similar approach. 

The biggest remaining question mark for Notre Dame fans is the health and confidence of kicker, Mitch Jeter. At some point in the next month the Irish will surely need him to make a crucial kick. If you’re near the grotto on ND’s campus – or anywhere else in the world, frankly – light a candle that the Jeter we saw in College Station, what seems like a lifetime ago, has returned.  

Game Prediction

Notre Dame 28-20 Indiana

Both teams will quickly realise the jump in quality over most of their previous opposition this season. But as a defensive struggle on a freezing night progresses, the Irish ground game will gain an advantage that the suffocating ND defense will capitalise upon in a tense fourth quarter.

Where to Watch

Sky Sports NFL (Channel 408 on Sky); coverage starts at 1.00am GMT

ESPN (in the USA)

Playoff Picture

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After three months of trying to work out which regular season outcomes would assist Notre Dame and their playoff hopes, we’ve now reached the business end of the college football campaign. The runners and riders have been confirmed and now it’s all about the bracket and who survives and advances. 

The Irish know that a first-round victory would send them to the Sugar Bowl where they would face SEC Champions, Georgia. The winners of that game in New Orleans are scheduled to head to Miami to take on Boise State or the winners of the SMU @ Penn State first-round tie. 

Both venues offer the promise of warmer climes than a Friday night in South Bend in December, but for the Irish to begin to dream of t-shirt weather, they first need to concentrate all their efforts on the first-ever college football playoff home game.

STIOFÁN MAC FHILIB

COLLEGE FOOTBALL ANALYST

A VERY LONG-DISTANCE SUBWAY ALUMNUS OF NOTRE DAME, COUNTY ANTRIM-BASED STIOFÁN HAS BEEN A FAN OF THE FIGHTING IRISH SINCE 2000. FOLLOW HIM ON TWITTER @SMACFHILIB.

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