CFB: Notre Dame Fighting Irish Mid-Season Review
By Stiofán Mac Fhilib
With Week 5 in the books, the Fighting Irish enter their bye week with plenty to take stock of. Our Stiofán Mac Fhilib gives you a full breakdown of the Lousiville matchup and takes a look back at the season so far.
Looking Back at Last Week
While much of ND Nation watched the opening kickoff against Louisville in Notre Dame Stadium last week with trepidation, I was always confident Marcus Freeman would have the Irish motivated and focused and ready to play, as he so often has done previously against the best teams on ND’s schedule.
Granted, about ten seconds and one Devyn Ford fumble recovered by the visitors at the Irish 24-yard line later, such confidence may have seemed a tad misplaced. But, Notre Dame, led by Riley Leonard in his most impressive outing so far, took advantage of a pair of Cardinals miscues to race into a 21-7 lead by the end of the first quarter.
The teams traded turnovers and scores to leave the Irish up 24-14 at the half, and after both defenses were on top in the third quarter, ND OC Mike Denbrock’s best play call of the season saw Jeremiyah Love take a Leonard screen pass 32 yards for the score to put Notre Dame 31-17 up with nine minutes remaining. Louisville QB Tyler Shough then threw yet another stellar TD pass to halve the deficit, but a failed fourth down attempt at midfield was as close as the Cardinals would subsequently come.
It was a much-needed victory in a game Marcus Freeman could not afford to lose. A battling performance by an injury-hit and young Notre Dame team. Louisville outgained the Irish on the ground and through the air, running 76 plays to ND’s 54. Shough made the two best throws of the afternoon, both for touchdowns, while Caullin Lacy returned for his first game of the season for the Cardinals after a pre-season fracture and made the highlight reel, one-handed catch of the day.
For all that, however, the visitors were 1-5 on fourth down, lost the turnover battle 2-3, and Al Golden’s bend-but-don’t-break defensive game plan ultimately helped see the Irish through. What made this all the more impressive was that Boubacar Traore, starting at edge in place of, injured for the season, Jordan Botelho, himself sustained a serious injury in the first half. Starting CB Christian Gray couldn’t take the field and true freshman, Leonard Moore, had to start and performed admirably. The Irish often had four freshmen on the field on defense, something that will bode well for future seasons, but which may cap expectations for this one.
On offense, Riley Leonard had his most confident and composed performance to date. He threw for a pair of TDs, including a perfect long post route to Greathouse, and rushed for another, looking much better going through his progressions. And this was particularly impressive given the ongoing pass protection issues with the OL. Having already been down three expected starters since the beginning of Fall Camp, LG Sam Pendleton also then went out injured near the end of the game. The bye week could not have come at a better time for Notre Dame.
The Season So Far
Five games into the season, and a 4-1 record is not necessarily a million miles away from where a lot of Irish fans envisaged the team at this point. And yet, in truth, there is an air of disappointment and frustration around much of the ND fan base. That, for the most part, is due to a combination of an(other) embarrassing home loss to a MAC team and the often underwhelming play of QB, Riley Leonard.
Nothing in sports leads to greater disappointment than unfulfilled expectations, and even more so in a fan base starved of success at the very highest level for so many decades. 4-1 with a loss at a good A&M team would have been one thing, but to go to College Station and gut out an important victory, only to return home and lay an egg, again, against a team like Northern Illinois was incredibly frustrating.
Similarly with Leonard. Looking back, missing virtually all of Spring Practice cost him valuable reps and chemistry-building with the offense. It is telling that it’s only in the last week or two that he has finally shown real signs of settling into the passing game at last. But again, three TD passes in five games does not match pre-season hype and expectations.
However, the biggest reason to reassess the heady prognostications of week 0 and after week 1, is the bad luck Notre Dame have had with injuries. By the time the Alma Mater rang out after the Lousiville win, RT Aamil Wagner, was the sole remaining OL player standing from the five expected to start from Fall Camp. And that was an OL that was hugely inexperienced to begin with.
At WR and TE the injury bug has been less severe but both Jordan Faison and Cooper Flanagan have missed different games. On the DL, a combination of serious injuries to Jordan Botelho and Boubacar Traore, along with the often average play of fifth- and sixth-year senior DTs, Rylie Mills and Howard Cross, has lessened the threat of the ND pass rush and run defense.
It’s a measure of the talent – and coaching – on that side of the ball that so many freshmen have been able to keep their heads above water and make an impact, while maintaining the impressive overall defense.
So, what now for the Irish and their remaining seven games? Stanford travel to South Bend next week, followed by neutral site games against Georgia Tech and Navy before the second bye. Then it is FSU and Virginia at home, followed by Army at Yankee Stadium and the Thanksgiving weekend finale out at USC.
12-0 and a fifth seed is off the table now, but 11-1 will almost certainly get the Irish a first-round game. Whether or not it will be at home may depend upon how other teams fare. One more loss and a 10-2 record will make for a very heated debate around ND’s best wins. Should the Irish lose another game it would be better to lose to the likes of Stanford and Virginia, than to USC. And even then, there would be an awful lot of reliance placed upon A&M, Louisville and USC’s ability to finish ranked.
I wouldn’t be placing any bets on a 10-2 Irish team making it, but right now it’s hard to predict them winning out, especially should they sustain any more key injuries. By the second bye week we should have a clearer picture of the potential post-season picture. If Notre Dame can make it to Hallowe’en 7-1 and with a functional passing game, then perhaps optimism will return.
Playoff Picture
Texas A&M and USC’s victories over Arkansas and Wisconsin respectively were helpful to the Irish cause. And even Army and Navy both starting 4-0 is a minor boost, though they would need to be almost perfect the rest of way to affect the rankings come November.
BYU’s win at Baylor makes them the surprise class of the Big 12 right now, but Saturday’s most seismic result came in a game for the ages in Tuscaloosa. Kalen DeBoer extended his phenomenal record as a head coach in big games and against the top coaches, with Alabama’s 41-34 win over Georgia. Bama are well placed now for a run to the SEC title game. The Bulldogs still have a tough schedule to negotiate but on their second half showing will fear no one the rest of the way.
STIOFÁN MAC FHILIB
COLLEGE FOOTBALL ANALYST
A VERY LONG-DISTANCE SUBWAY ALUMNUS OF NOTRE DAME, COUNTY ANTRIM-BASED STIOFÁN HAS BEEN A FAN OF THE FIGHTING IRISH SINCE 2000. FOLLOW HIM ON TWITTER @SMACFHILIB.