2026 Big Ten Football Predictions: Projecting Every Team's Record
By Owain Jones
The Big Ten enters 2026 with a legitimate claim to being the deepest conference in college football.
Three different programmes have won the last three national championships, and eight teams enter the season ranked inside the AP Top 25. You can make a realistic case for Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana to win the National Championship, and for several others to reach the College Football Playoff.
But predicting records isn’t the same as ranking teams.
Schedule, quarterback play, coaching changes, and the fine margins that decide Big Ten games mean some records will flatter teams while others might undersell them. An 8-4 team
So, with the season almost here, these are our 2026 Big Ten football record predictions for all 18 teams.
Oregon Ducks: 11-1
This is championship or bust. No team combines last year’s success with as much promise in 2026. And roster-wise, few teams in the country can match the Ducks on paper.
Dante Moore returns after throwing for 3,565 yards and 30 touchdowns. Evan Stewart is back after missing 2025. And Jamari Johnson could emerge as the best tight end in college football. Meanwhile, defensively, the line is loaded with Matayo Uiagalelei, Teitum Tuioti, Bear Alexander and A’Mauri Washington, all returning.
Finding a weakness is extremely difficult, and making a case for the Ducks to go undefeated in the regular season isn’t far-fetched.
However, the uncertainty comes from losing both coordinators, even with Dan Lanning promoting from within, and whether Oregon has actually evolved enough to finally get over the hump.
They have been close before and looked like one of the most talented teams in the country before. We were saying many of the same things about Oregon a year ago.
The roster is good enough. Now Oregon has to prove it can finish the job.
Indiana Hoosiers: 10-2
How do you follow a 16-0 season and a National Championship? By trying to retain it.
But Indiana enters 2026 as one of the safest College Football Playoff projections in the country. Curt Cignetti has already proven his programme can survive significant roster turnover, and his track record in developing quarterbacks gives confidence that Josh Hoover can successfully replace Fernando Mendoza.
But Hoover will make Indiana different. He is naturally aggressive and turnover-prone, although Cignetti has already shown he can clean that up. Mendoza arrived at Indiana with even greater turnover concerns before developing into the quarterback who led the Hoosiers to a National Championship.
Nick Marsh, Charlie Becker, and Turbo Richard give Hoover the weapons to make his aggression worthwhile, while Indiana’s opening six games provide time for everything to settle before Ohio State and Michigan arrive in consecutive weeks.
The bigger uncertainty might be defensively. Indiana replaces significant experience from an exceptional pass defence, including D’Angelo Ponds, and there isn’t yet an obvious established difference-maker taking his place.
Indiana remains good enough to contend nationally. Expecting another perfect regular season may be asking too much, but the Hoosiers are still a Playoff team, and nobody should be surprised if they make another deep run.
Ohio State Buckeyes: 10-2
Ohio State starts the season ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll and might have the best offensive trio in college football.
Julian Sayin returns alongside 1,000-yard running back Bo Jackson and arguably the best player in the country in Jeremiah Smith. Now, Arthur Smith arrives to coordinate an offense that could look slightly different. Expect heavier personnel, play action, and a greater commitment to establishing Jackson behind an experienced offensive line.
It might not always resemble the explosive Ohio State offenses we expect or generate the same excitement among the fanbase, but it could make the Buckeyes more physical and sustainable against the best teams in the country.
And they’ll need to be.
That’s because Ohio State has a brutal schedule. They travel to Texas, Iowa, Indiana, USC, and Nebraska, while Oregon and Michigan come to Columbus.
Add in significant turnover from an exceptional 2025 defense, even with talented replacements arriving, and there are enough difficult games here to make two losses entirely realistic.
This is still a National Championship-calibre roster. But navigating that schedule at 10-2 feels considerably more realistic than expecting Ohio State to dominate the regular season.
Iowa Hawkeyes: 9-3
You know exactly what Iowa is going to be under Kirk Ferentz. They will run the football, play excellent defense under Phil Parker, be physical at the line of scrimmage, and consistently beat the teams they should.
So, predicting nine wins is really a bet on Iowa finding just a little more at quarterback.
The Hawkeyes haven’t named a starter, with Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski still competing for the job. Brown offers experience and stability, but Iowa already has plenty of that elsewhere. The possibility of Hecklinski winning the job is a big reason we’re predicting 9-3.
His mobility and willingness to attack downfield could give the Hawkeyes something they lacked last season, when Mark Gronowski offered plenty as a runner but never consistently stretched defenses vertically. Hecklinski doesn’t need to transform the offense. A few more explosive plays, turning more field goals into touchdowns, and the occasional high-leverage play could be enough to swing the marginal games Iowa so often finds itself in.
The problem is a brutal three-game stretch: at Michigan, Ohio State, then at Washington.
Find one win there, and 9-3 becomes very achievable
Penn State Nittany Lions: 9-3
Our Penn State predictions are exactly why you have to differentiate the predicted record from the team’s outlook.
We’re predicting nine wins, but that has much more to do with the schedule than the quality of the roster Matt Campbell inherits. Penn State avoids Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana entirely, while Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo make up the nonconference slate. There is a very clear path to 9-3.
That matters for a programme undergoing enormous transition. Campbell added 39 transfers, many following him from Iowa State, including quarterback Rocco Becht. That familiarity should allow Penn State to establish its identity more quickly than a normal first-year staff, even while replacing so much of the roster.
However, there are still questions, particularly along both lines of scrimmage, and USC, Michigan, and Washington provide three obvious tests.
But Campbell is an excellent coach with players who already understand what he wants. Combine that with one of the friendlier schedules among the Big Ten contenders, and Penn State can win nine games without necessarily being one of the conference’s best teams.
USC Trojans: 9-3
The question with Lincoln Riley’s teams has perennially been whether they can just create an average defense. Because he creates more than enough offense to win games.
The Trojans averaged 35.8 points and 7.1 yards per play last season, and Jayden Maiava returns to lead an offense that should remain equally explosive despite losing significant talent at receiver.
But Gary Patterson’s arrival as defensive coordinator is what makes USC particularly interesting in 2026 and could tip the balance. The legendary coach doesn’t need to suddenly build one of the best defenses in college football. USC allowed 23 points per game last season.
Even steady, incremental improvement could change the maths of how Riley’s team wins games, keeping scores down and reducing how often the offense is forced to win shootouts.
The schedule provides little room for error, with Oregon and Ohio State coming to Los Angeles and trips to Indiana and Penn State on the slate.
That’s why 9-3 feels right. But if Patterson can build even an average-to-good defense alongside Riley’s offense, USC has legitimate College Football Playoff upside.
Illinois Fighting Illini: 8-4
Illinois has firmly established itself as a proven Big Ten winner under Bret Bielema. The Illini enter 2026 on the back of consecutive nine-win seasons, but significant roster turnover makes maintaining that level considerably more difficult.
The changes include Luke Altmyer leaving, although Katin Houser provides an experienced replacement after throwing for 3,300 yards and 19 touchdowns at East Carolina last season.
The concern is up front. Illinois needs its three-man front to hold up against the run and occupy blocks without constantly needing extra help; otherwise, it risks compromising the secondary. But that unit should remain a strength with Matthew Bailey and Xavier Scott returning.
The schedule isn’t particularly forgiving, either. Ohio State and Oregon are obvious hurdles, while Iowa presents exactly the sort of physical matchup that can make Illinois uncomfortable.
That’s why 8-4 would still represent a successful season. More importantly, it would provide further evidence that Bielema has built something sustainable in Champaign.
Michigan Wolverines: 8-4
Predicting Michigan to go 8-4 feels wrong. Because they might be considerably better than their record suggests.
New head coach Kyle Whittingham feels almost perfectly suited to the programme, bringing the same physical, line-of-scrimmage identity that has defined Michigan at its best. The defense should also remain one of the Big Ten’s strongest, while Jordan Marshall and Savion Hiter give the offense an excellent, explosive backfield.
But how high Michigan can climb ultimately comes down to Bryce Underwood and how Jason Beck uses him.
The former No. 1 recruit flashed his enormous potential as a true freshman, but 11 touchdowns to nine interceptions also shows how much room there is to develop as a passer. Beck should lean into Underwood’s athleticism with designed runs, RPOs, and play action rather than asking him to suddenly become a conventional dropback quarterback.
The problem is the schedule. Oklahoma arrives in Week 2 before Michigan later faces Iowa, Penn State, Indiana, Oregon, and Ohio State.
That’s brutal. But if Underwood takes the expected Year 2 leap, Michigan could lose four games and still be considerably more dangerous than several teams that finish above them.
Washington Huskies: 8-4
After winning nine games in 2025, simply reaching another bowl for Washington isn’t enough. The bar has been raised.
Much of the Huskies’ ceiling rests on Demond Williams, who threw for more than 3,000 yards and 25 touchdowns while adding 611 yards on the ground last season.
Those numbers are impressive, but Williams and Washington were at their best when they could dictate games against lesser opposition. The offense struggled when it came up against the Big Ten’s elite.
The next step is producing with the same consistency when the athletic advantages disappear and the passing windows tighten against the Big Ten’s best defenses.
And the schedule will give them plenty of opportunities to prove it. Indiana, Iowa, and Penn State all visit Seattle, while Washington travels to USC and Oregon.
Fisch has raised the floor considerably, and Williams gives Washington genuine upside. But until they consistently beat the conference’s better teams, 8-4 feels like the right prediction.
Minnesota Golden Gophers: 6-6
Predicting Minnesota to fall from eight wins to six doesn’t necessarily mean we’re expecting them to become a significantly worse football team.
The Gophers lived on incredibly fine margins in 2025. Remarkably, they went 7-0 at home and 0-5 on the road, while one-score wins over Rutgers, Purdue, and Michigan State helped turn another solid season into an eight-win campaign, including a bowl victory. Repeating that is difficult, especially with Michigan and Iowa visiting Minneapolis this year.
There are still reasons to trust P.J. Fleck’s team. The defense should remain good, while Drake Lindsey provides stability at quarterback. But an offense that averaged only 23 points and 4.9 yards per play needs to become more explosive if Minnesota is going to overcome a more difficult schedule.
Trips to Washington, Indiana, and Penn State provide obvious hurdles, with Mississippi State, UCLA, and Wisconsin adding more competitive games.
Minnesota can play competent football in 2026 and still finish 6-6. Sometimes the record regresses more than the team does.
Nebraska Cornhuskers: 6-6
There is enough talent at Nebraska to make 6-6 look pessimistic. The problem is how much of it we’re still projecting.
Anthony Colandrea brings more improvisation and playmaking ability at quarterback, but his aggressive style also introduces volatility that could decide the close Big Ten games Nebraska has struggled to consistently win under Matt Rhule.
There is also similar intrigue on the offensive line. Only 47% of last season’s snaps return, but transfers Tree Babalade, Brendan Black, and Paul Mubenga give the unit plenty of upside. Babalade, in particular, is a player fans should be excited to see develop after flashing considerable potential without fully realising it.
New defensive coordinator Rob Aurich adds another unknown, even after producing an excellent defense at San Diego State.
As you can see, there is still a lot to play out. Then the schedule turns nasty. Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Iowa, and Washington are all waiting.
There is enough talent on this roster to go 8-4. But with this much projection and volatility, Nebraska hasn’t earned enough trust in marginal Big Ten games for us to predict the breakthrough.
UCLA Bruins: 6-6
Rejoice. There is finally genuine reason for optimism at UCLA.
Bob Chesney arrives after transforming James Madison into a College Football Playoff team, but his biggest task is creating an offense that helps Nico Iamaleava.
There are reasons to believe he can. Wayne Knight follows Chesney from James Madison after rushing for 1,373 yards, while UCLA has aggressively rebuilt an offensive line that was a major problem in 2025. It may not be convincing yet, but if the unit creates a functional running game and cleaner situations for Iamaleava, an offense that averaged only 18.2 points last season should take a considerable step forward.
There are still concerns defensively, particularly against the run, but the schedule provides a realistic route to six wins. Purdue, Maryland, Michigan State, San Diego State, and Nevada are all winnable, leaving UCLA needing to find another win against the middle of its schedule.
We’re betting on Chesney raising the floor immediately. It might be ambitious, but for a programme that won three games last season, 6-6 would represent meaningful progress.
Wisconsin Badgers: 6-6
If Luke Fickell is going to turn Wisconsin around, this is the schedule to finally show some progress.
The Badgers avoid Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana after navigating a brutal schedule in 2025. But a friendlier path doesn’t suddenly erase the questions surrounding a roster that still lacks enough established high-end talent to confidently predict a major breakthrough.
Colton Joseph is the most exciting addition. The Old Dominion transfer threw for 2,624 yards and rushed for another 1,007 last season, and his physical running style feels well suited to Jeff Grimes’ offense. But translating that production against Big Ten defenses, particularly behind another rebuilt offensive line, is a different challenge.
Wisconsin has also attacked the portal defensively to become more physical up front, but much like the offense, we’re still projecting what those additions will become.
The opportunity is considerably better than it was a year ago. And for this coaching staff, it has to happen now. Six wins and bowl eligibility would represent progress, but Fickell has reached the point where Wisconsin has to start taking advantage of these opportunities.
Maryland Terrapins: 5-7
Squint, and you can see why people are projecting progress for Mike Locksley in 2026. There is plenty to like about Malik Washington. But projecting Maryland to make a significant jump because of one exciting young quarterback feels premature.
Washington threw for 2,963 yards and 17 touchdowns as a true freshman, and his combination of arm talent and mobility gives the Terrapins genuine upside entering Year 2. The problem is how much Maryland asked him to do.
The Terps averaged only 104.3 rushing yards per game in 2025, making the offense far too one-dimensional and repeatedly leaving Washington to create in obvious situations.
Washington should take another step in Year 2, but the offense around him has to improve considerably if that development is going to translate into more wins.
Additionally, the schedule contains plenty of games that Maryland hasn’t earned the right to assume it will win yet. UCLA, Virginia Tech, Rutgers, and Wisconsin are opportunities rather than guarantees, alongside more difficult matchups against Ohio State, Nebraska, Illinois, USC, and Penn State.
Washington gives Maryland hope. But until the rest of the offense gives him more help, 5-7 feels more realistic than expecting a return to bowl eligibility.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights: 5-7
For Rutgers to reach bowl eligibility, there are two projections that need to be realised.
Dylan Lonergan takes over at quarterback with enough talent around him to succeed. KJ Duff returns after 905 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, while Antwan Raymond rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season. Lonergan won’t carry this offense, but with the skill talent available, he needs to provide enough stability.
The bigger concern is defensively. Rutgers allowed 32.7 points and 435.3 yards per game in 2025, and new coordinator Travis Johansen now has to oversee significant improvement from a rebuilt unit. They should be better, but will they be better enough to change games?
There are reasons to believe both changes can work. But predicting a new quarterback and a defensive overhaul to both work immediately requires more projection than we’re willing to make.
Bowl eligibility is absolutely attainable. For now, though, 5-7 feels like the more likely and safer outcome.
Northwestern Wildcats: 4-8
Northwestern has done an immense amount to improve its football programme this offseason, even if its 2026 record may not reflect it.
Aidan Chiles has officially won the starting quarterback job, and pairing his talent with Chip Kelly makes this offense genuinely intriguing. Caleb Komolafe returns after rushing for 941 yards and 11 touchdowns, while Griffin Wilde gives Chiles an established weapon after an 880-yard season.
But there are two problems. Northwestern still has questions along an offensive line that needs to hold up against Big Ten fronts, and the schedule is brutal.
The Wildcats face Indiana, Penn State, Oregon, and Ohio State, while an egregiously early bye leaves them playing 11 consecutive games to finish the season. That’s unforgiving for any roster.
Chiles and Kelly should make Northwestern more dangerous and potentially capable of springing an upset. But improvement doesn’t always mean more wins. This could look like a considerably better football team on Saturdays and still finish 4-8.
Michigan State Spartans: 3-9
Year 1 under Pat Fitzgerald isn’t really about how many games Michigan State wins. It’s about whether the Spartans start looking like a Pat Fitzgerald football team. Can he install his culture, and can he get them playing more physically?
For the former Northwestern head coach, there are pieces to build around. Alessio Milivojevic showed enough at quarterback last season to be intriguing, while UConn transfer Cam Edwards arrives after rushing for 1,240 yards and 15 touchdowns. Together, they give Michigan State the foundation for the physical running game Fitzgerald will want to establish.
But the talent around them remains a concern. The Spartans averaged only 3.8 yards per carry last season. Nick Marsh is gone, and significant improvement along the offensive line is required to make that identity work.
Then there is a schedule featuring Notre Dame, Michigan, Washington, and Oregon.
Three wins won’t look like much progress in the standings. But if Michigan State becomes tougher, more disciplined, and consistently more competitive, Fitzgerald will have established something to build upon. In 2026, that matters more than the record.
Purdue Boilermakers: 1-11
Purdue might go 1-11 and still be a better football team than it was a year ago.
That’s the reality Barry Odom faces after a 2-10 season in which the Boilermakers went winless in the Big Ten. The roster remains the conference’s weakest, and the schedule makes finding victories beyond Indiana State extremely difficult.
So, progress has to be measured differently.
Ryan Browne showed occasional promise at quarterback last season, but Purdue averaged only 18.8 points per game, and his production declined considerably down the stretch. The offense needs to become more efficient, sustain drives, and give Purdue a chance to remain competitive deeper into games.
Because there is a difference between losing and being completely outmatched.
If Purdue can eliminate more of the blowouts, become tougher at the line of scrimmage, and enter fourth quarters with opportunities to win, Odom can demonstrate that the programme is moving forward.
But the record will remain ugly.
OWAIN JONES
COLLEGE FOOTBALL & NFL DRAFT ANALYST
OWAIN jones COVERS EVERYTHING college football & NFL DRAFT. COMING WITH PLENTY OF EXPERIENCE, OWAIN was PREVIOUSLY a writer for pfsn, and WAS THE NFL DRAFT EDITOR AT NINETY-NINE YARDS, WHERE HE CREATED DRAFT TALK. YOU CAN FOLLOW HIM ON TWITTER @OwainJonesCFB.