NFL Divisional Deep Dive: AFC East

By Peter Mann

As the regular season heads into its closing weeks, one division that has been wrapped up is that of the AFC East, with franchises from both New England and Buffalo having confirmed their spots in the postseason.

This week’s Divisional Deep Dive looks into the AFC East and it’s return of the ‘old guard’ to head of the table, as the New England Patriots, now under the leadership of Mike Vrabel, find themselves on the verge of a first divisional title since 2019. They do still have Sean McDermott’s Buffalo Bills to contend with though and, with two to play, it’ll soon be decided.

Week 15s 35-31 for the Bills, at the Patriots, kept them on the heels of Vrabel’s charges, otherwise it would have been pretty much game over for McDermott’s men; meanwhile, the Dolphins, and especially the Jets, they’ve never really got motoring this campaign, the latter failing to register in the win column until week eight, and have only done so three times, whilst the former have won five of their last eight.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (1st, 12-3, won 28-14 at Baltimore Ravens)

Having dominated the AFC East for so long, winning eleven straight divisional titles, and seventeen in nineteen years between 2001 and 2019, the Patriots were the franchise to beat; they even won five out of nine trips to the Super Bowl over that period.

However, all good things do come to an end, eventually, and that’s what happened in New England, with the Bills taking advantage over recent years. This season though has seen the old-new Patriots take the division by storm, thus far winning twelve of their fifteen outings to top the division going into the closing weeks.

A playoff berth already confirmed, Vrabel’s 2025 Patriots will continue to push as far as they can, or even want, as they look to return to former glories. Mind, it didn’t look that way at the start of the regular season, the Pats taking a little time to get going as they mustered a 1-2 start.

Defeats at home to both Las Vegas Raiders (13-20) and Pittsburgh Steelers (14-21) didn’t really fill the Gillette Stadium with hope, the victory came at the expense of their divisional rivals, Miami Dolphins (33-27) in week two.

Since defeat to the Steelers though, Vrabel’s charges have put on a ten-game winning streak, a run which included a 31-13 success at Tennessee Titans, and a 32-13 home win over Cleveland Browns, in weeks seven and eight.

The Pats also saw off the hosting Tampa Bay Buccaneers (28-23) in week ten, coming from 10-7 down on the brink of half-time to stun the Raymond James Stadium crowd and slowly increase their advantage throughout the second half, running back TreyVeyon Henderson adding two rushing scores to quarterback Drake Maye’s pair of touchdown throws.

The bye week for the Pats perhaps came at the wrong time for them, Vrabel’s men being edged 35-31 at home to divisional rivals, the Bills, in their week fifteen return to action; Vrabel’s men though quickly got back to winning ways this past weekend when at AFC North’s Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens would find the endzone through a pair of rushing scores from Derrick Henry and one from Zay Flowers, with the Pats quarterback, Maye, again on form in his sides’ 28-24 success.

A 2024 first round draft pick from the North Carolina Tar Heels, Maye is enjoying his season in New England, and it’s showed, he responsible for 29 scores thus far, putting up statistics of 31/44, 380yds, 2TDs (pass) against the Ravens.

In addition to Maye, running back Rhamondre Stevenson added 51yds, 1TD (rush), whilst kicker Andres Borregales registered 1/1FG, 41lng, 2/3PATs; they now need to get the job done over their last two games to continue momentum into the postseason.

BUFFALO BILLS (2nd, 11-4, won 23-20 at Cleveland Browns)

Sean McDermott has done some pretty good things over his now nine seasons in Buffalo, he now needs to take them to that next level and succeed in the latter stages of the postseason; a dozen AFC East divisional titles have ended up in Buffalo, McDermott responsible for the last five (in a row, 2020-2024).

This season though, they’ve had to contend with a resurgent New England, whilst trying to maintain their own trajectory; there’s still a chance of the AFC East this season, but they need results to all go in their favour in the last two weeks for that one.

Losses have, to a point, proved costly for McDermott’s men, despite a strong, 4-0 start to the regular season, however, back-to-back losses, to New England (20-23) and at Atlanta Falcons (14-24) before their bye week, put the breaks on.

Weeks eight and nine saw huge wins over Carolina Panthers (40-9) and Kansas City Chiefs (28-21), saw the Bills 6-2, before two defeats in their next three again slowed them down, those coming at the hands of Houston Texans (13-20) and Miami Dolphins (19-23).

The past four weeks have however seen the Bills storm back into contention, make the playoffs, and go into the past two weeks of the regular season with an 11-4 record, their week fifteen, 35-31 success, in New England a huge marker for them.

At Cleveland Browns this past weekend it was their running backs who came to the fore, with Shedeur Sanders and Harold Fanin Jnr registering for the Browns, the Bills were pushed over the finishing line by James Cook and Ty Johnson.

Cook, in his fourth season in Buffalo after his second round draft pick from the Georgia Bulldogs in 2022, posted 117yds, 2TDs (rush), whilst Johnson, formerly with Detroit Lions and New York Jets before moving to Buffalo in 2023, registered 16yds, 1TD (rush), kicker Michael Badgley putting on the extras.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (3rd, 6-9, lost 45-21 home to Cincinnati Bengals)

It’s been a while since the Dolphins did anything, special, despite some of the talent taking to the Hard Rock field, in fact it’s been seventeen years now since they lifted the last of their thirteen, AFC East divisional titles (2008). Over forty years have elapsed since they lifted a Conference championship, and over half-a-century since the last of their two, Super Bowl successes.

They’re crying out for something in Miami that’s for sure but, this season, like most others, have promised much, but delivered nothing – winning seasons of 2016 (10-6), 2022 (9-8), and 2023 (11-6) was only enough for second place, with Mike McDaniel at the helm for his fourth season now.

This season though couldn’t have started any worse though for the Dolphins, an 0-3 start, one win in their first seven, and two wins in their first nine has proven disastrous, the wins coming at home to divisional rivals New York Jets (27-21) in week four, and at Atlanta Falcons (34-10) in week eight.

They did however manage a four-game winning streak either side of their bye week, defeating Buffalo Bills (30-13), Washington Commanders (16-13OT), and New Orleans Saints (21-17) all at Hard Rock, before a week fifteen win away to New York Jets (34-10) put them at 6-7.

McDaniels’ charges though reverted back to typed in recent weeks, losing at Pittsburgh Steelers (15-28) in week fifteen, then a 21-45 loss to Cincinnati Bengals last time out, any sense of continuity failing them.

Against the hosting Bengals, the Dolphins would ship four touchdown scores to Joe Burrow, along with a further two, rushing scores, from Chase Brown and Samaje Perine, Miami relying on a trio of rushing scores to keep themselves, for their part, in the game.

Running backs De’Von Achane and Jaylen Wright posted 81yds, 1TD (rush) and 35yds, 1TD (rush), alongside wide receiver Malik Washington’s 9yds, 1TD (rush), with Quinn Ewers having replaced the benched Tua Tagovailoa, who’s thrown for eighteen touchdowns this season.

NEW YORK JETS (4th, 3-12, lost 29-6 at New Orleans Saints)

The Jets have struggled, for a long time now. In-fact, over the past thirteen seasons, fourteen including this one, have finished either third or fourth in the AFC East on ten occasions (this will be their eleventh), finishing second in 2013 and 2015.

It’s also been over twenty years since the Jets claimed only their second, divisional title (1998 and 2002); it’s been a long, long wait in New York. The Jets are also on their fifth Head Coach in the last decade, with Aaron Glenn in his first season in the hot-seat of an NFL franchise.

A baptism of fire for Glenn et al saw the Jets start the 2025 regular season with seven straight losses, including reverses against divisional rivals Buffalo Bills (10-30) in week two, and to Miami Dolphins (21-27) in week four, had them on the back foot.

Victories over Cincinnati Bengals (39-38), and Cleveland Browns (27-20) either side of the bye week, finally put the Jets into the win column, but a further five losses in their last six outings has Glenn’s men 3-12 going into the final two games.

Their last win, a 27-24 success at home to Atlanta Falcons in week thirteen as quarterback Tyrod Taylor had a passing and rushing touchdown with running back Breece Hall adding a rushing score of his own, before they limped over the line in their last outing, a 6-29 defeat away to New Orleans Saints, kicker Nick Folk with their only scores from a pair of field goals.

TWO GAMES TO GO, PATS AND BILLS WITH AN EYE ON THE POST-SEASON

There are just two games left of the regular season, and it’s all to play for at the top of the AFC East between a resurgent New England, and a Buffalo side looking for a sixth straight, the former leading the way.

New England have, on paper, the easier finale, but it’s divisional matchups so anything can happen really when they travel to the Jets next, before finishing at Foxborough against the Dolphins in early January; Buffalo meanwhile host the 10-5 Philadelphia Eagles in their next outing before finishing the regular season up at the Jets.

No doubt keen to finish on a high, Miami’s is a tough one when they host Tampa Bay Buccaneers next, before closing the season in Foxborough; as for the Jets, two divisional finish their torrid campaign, home to New England and away to Buffalo.

It’s football though, so anything can happen really !!

PETER MANN

NFL ANALYST

PETER IS A LIFELONG SPORTS FAN, JOURNALIST AND AUTHOR BASED IN COUNTY DURHAM. HE HAS FOLLOWED THE NFL AND THE RAIDERS SINCE THE 1980s, AND LOVES BOTH SPORTS AND FAMILY HISTORY. PETER HAS A DEGREE IN SPORT & EXERCISE PSYCHOLOGY, AND CAN BE FOUND ON TWITTER @petermannwriter

 
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