CFB: Notre Dame Fighting Irish Week 12 Preview
By Stiofán Mac Fhilib
After a comprehensive demolition of the Navy Midshipmen to notch up a seventh consecutive win, #9 Notre Dame – and the College GameDay crew – travel to #22 Pittsburgh for an intriguing matchup. Victory is essential for Irish playoff hopes, but the Panthers have more than just a potential spoiler role. Their remaining schedule offers them their own glimpse of playoff participation.
Looking Back at Last Week
As disjointed as the previous week’s ND performance at Boston College was, the display against Navy was complete. The offense scored TDs on seven of its first eight drives and ran out the clock inside the Navy red zone on its ninth, running up over 500 yards of offense and averaging 8.8 yards per play.
In his first outing as Irish DC against the Middies, Chris Ash’s unit was exceptional, holding Navy to 228 total yards at 4.1 ypp and just ten points. And even the kicking unit made all seven kicks; that they were all ‘just’ PATs made no difference to the level of celebration of each by the Irish faithful!
It’s now clear that USC, and their ‘don’t let CJ Carr beat us, so play two high safeties and don’t worry about the ND run game’ approach was something of an outlier. Navy, like NC State and Boston College before them, loaded the box and dared Carr to beat them through the air. So, he did. He only needed to throw 19 times, completing 16 for over 250 yards and three TDs.
Jeremiyah Love was kept relatively quiet, which these days still means 121 total yards from scrimmage on 14 touches and an absurd 48-yard TD run at the start of the second half. The St. Louis native broke two tackles, stiff-armed another defender, then landed on top of a would-be fourth tackler before jumping up and running down the sideline for a highlight reel score. He must now be close to earning an invite to New York in early December.
Navy, without starting QB Blake Horvath, who was nursing an upper body injury, were not able to mix in the passing game in the same manner with backup Braxton Woodson. The Irish defense was able to limit their explosive running plays and forced six Navy punts. That the Middies only went for it once – unsuccessfully – on fourth down is a testament to how well ND did at preventing them from getting into fourth-and-short situations. Holding them to 3-11 on third down was also exceptional.
The Irish offense faced ten third downs and secured a first down on nine occasions. That efficiency will greatly please OC, Mike Denbrock, especially as some of it came with the backups later in the game. Notre Dame was able to rest many of its starters for pretty much all of the fourth quarter, and with a playoff run potentially ahead, that is a luxury they might also be able to enjoy in their final two regular-season games, if they go to form.
Not this Saturday, however, where a Pitt team on a five-game winning run awaits.
The Week Ahead
#22 Pitt Panthers (Acrisure Stadium); 12.00pm EST; 5.00pm GMT
Notre Dame travels to western Pennsylvania for the 74th game in a rivalry that began back in 1909. The Irish lead the series 51-21-1, having won seven of the last eight. The two games this decade finished 45-3 and 58-7 in favour of ND. All that said, the task facing the Irish at noon this Saturday will be significantly different.
Since replacing QB Eli Holstein, an Alabama transfer, with true freshman Mason Heintschel after their defeat to Louisville, the Panthers have won five straight, averaging 40 points per game and scoring at least 30 in each outing, all against ACC opposition. At 7-2 with Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Miami still to come, Pat Narduzzi’s team could still make their own application to the playoff selection committee.
As well as welcoming College GameDay to the city for its first trip to a Notre Dame-Pitt game since Charlie Weis’s debut in September 2005, the home team will also celebrate the 50th anniversary, to the very day, of Tony Dorsett’s 303-yard rushing game against the Irish. The subsequent year, he would win the Heisman Trophy en route to the Panthers’ last national championship, but his performance in that 34-20 win in 1975 is arguably the most memorable of his college career.
Pitt’s leading rusher this season has only 96 yards more through nine games than Dorsett had on that one afternoon, so a repeat may not be on the cards this weekend! Rather, they will rely upon Heintschel, both his arm and his legs. He will make explosive plays but is also a threat to scramble when protection breaks down. As it often has. The Irish pass rush needs to make his afternoon uncomfortable.
Both secondaries will have a significant say in how the game unfolds. Notre Dame will face Pitt receivers who have struggled against man coverage, something the Irish utilise more than most teams. Tight coverage is also a pass rush’s best friend and has contributed to more than a few coverage sacks for ND so far this season.
For the Pitt secondary, their head coach’s calling card is his relentless run defense and penchant for leaving the back end of his defense on islands. The Panthers have an elite run defense this season, so the Irish can expect a tough afternoon for Love and Price, though if any pair of RBs in college football has the propensity to break even just one long TD run, it’s the ND duo.
Expect a repeat of the 2013 Michigan State game plan when Narduzzi was the DC there. Eight or nine men in the box, DBs left one-on-one, and frequent grabbing and holding of Irish receivers on almost every down, in the hope that “they can’t call pass interference on every play”. And given the displays of ACC officials in Notre Dame games so far this season, are there any Irish fans out there who would be confident in the officials’ performance this week?
The challenge for Marcus Freeman and his team is to try to ensure that, unlike against Texas A&M, the game is not close enough for the officials to decide the outcome wrongly.
Game Prediction
NOTRE DAME 103-10 PITTSBURGH
Pitt HC, Pat Narduzzi, will appreciate our Lord’s words in Matthew 7:7: “Ask, and it shall be given to you.”
Where to Watch
DAZN (coverage starts at 5.00pm GMT)
ABC (in the USA)
Playoff Picture
Last week saw some close shaves for the likes of Indiana, Oregon and Vanderbilt. In a bad week for the ACC, Virginia and Louisville both suffered home defeats that may derail their playoff hopes. A possible Big 12 Championship Game preview saw BYU lose for the first time to Texas Tech. However, both Utah and Cincinnati will have a significant say in who actually makes it to JerryWorld.
This week sees some crucial games in the SEC. Texas travels to Georgia, and Oklahoma travels to Alabama. Defeat for either former Big 12 team may well make their playoff path almost impossible, something Irish fans should be rooting for. Elsewhere, there does not appear to be that much scope for upsets, but that is a dangerous mindset in college football. A USC win over Iowa is also in Notre Dame’s interests, though many fans may draw the line at actually cheering on the Trojans!
STIOFÁN MAC FHILIB
COLLEGE FOOTBALL ANALYST
A VERY LONG-DISTANCE SUBWAY ALUMNUS OF NOTRE DAME, COUNTY ANTRIM-BASED STIOFÁN HAS BEEN A FAN OF THE FIGHTING IRISH SINCE 2000. FOLLOW HIM ON TWITTER @SMACFHILIB.