CFB: Notre Dame Fighting Irish Week 11 Preview
By Stiofán Mac Fhilib
Following the first rankings from the playoff committee, the #10 Irish need to continue impressing the twelve committee members in Grapevine, Texas, ideally starting with a win over a historic rival, Navy, which is still vying for the American Conference title.
Looking Back at Last Week
Fresh off a bye week, Notre Dame’s performance was at times discombobulated last Saturday afternoon at Alumni Stadium in Boston. The offense and kicking games were frequently out of sync, and while the defense ultimately did well in keeping points off the board, it committed an absurd host of undisciplined penalties.
Against an overmatched defense yet to register a win against FBS opposition this season, the Irish began with a punt, turnover on downs, TD, and fumble. It took until the two-minute warning of the first half for ND to register their second TD and take a 14-0 lead. Or rather, it would have been a 14-point advantage had they not missed the first PAT and failed on the next two-point conversion attempt.
Those mishaps were only exacerbated when BC marched 75 yards in seven plays and 1:31 to make it a 12-7 game at the half, thanks also to a missed 35-yard FG by Erik Schmidt as the half ended.
The second half didn’t begin any better for the Irish as the Eagles took 11:20 and 21 plays to march 74 yards, though in the end they were held to a chip shot FG. And that was as good as it got for the home team.
Notre Dame quickly extended the lead courtesy of the obligatory Jeremiyah Love TD run, and when backup QB Grayson James was picked off for the second time at the Irish six-yard line, Love ensured another personal 100-yard game with a 94-yard TD scamper to end it as a contest.
The Eagles had clearly decided on the NC State approach to defending the Irish. Load the box to try to contain the ND run game and take their chances with CJ Carr. And Love’s long TD run aside, they held the Irish to 28 rushes for just 65 yards. But the price of too much Cover 0 was almost 300 yards for Carr, and a pair of 40+ yard first-half TD passes.
So, ND shipped back up to South Bend, having entered last weekend at #12 in the AP Poll. And by Tuesday night, the playoff committee’s first rankings had moved them up to #10, which was likely at the upper end of many fans’ hopes and expectations. That ranking is a curious compromise between the advanced metrics, most of which would rate the Irish even more highly, and their résumé to date, which could be half a dozen spots lower.
Either way, it leaves Notre Dame very well placed, as long as they win out. There are even scenarios where the Irish could end up with a home playoff game, though all they can do for now is see how the coming weeks’ schedules unfold.
The Week Ahead
Navy Midshipmen (Notre Dame Stadium); 7.30pm EST; 12.30am GMT
This will be the 98th game in a series that began between the World Wars, but which owes its now permanent place on the Notre Dame schedule to the debt the Irish owe the US Navy from World War II. The use of ND facilities to train officers for the Naval Academy helped keep Notre Dame afloat (pun intended). The debt of gratitude felt by the university means that, in the words of former ND President, Fr. Ted Hesburgh, “we will always play Navy until they tell us they don’t want to”.
It’s been a one-sided series on the field, with the Irish leading 83-13-1 all-time and having the upper hand in each of the last seven matchups. Under Marcus Freeman, ND have averaged 43 ppg on offense, and given that this is the worst Navy defense his team will have faced in his tenure, that total could well be surpassed on Saturday night.
Defensively, all ND fans’ eyes will be on new DC, Chris Ash, to see how he copes with the unique Navy offense for the first time. For comparison, his predecessor, Al Golden, gave up 32 points in his first season, followed by 3, then 14. And for what it’s worth, in his only season in the same role, Freeman’s defense gave up 6 points. Irish fans will want Ash’s first number to be closer to the latter than the former.
To complicate matters a bit, the Navy offense under second-year OC, Drew Cronic, is a good bit more complex than just the old triple option Irish fans have grown used to/sick of (delete according to preference). They use shotgun formations and throw much more often than in the past. The one thing they’ve remained consistent in, however, is efficiency, especially on first down.
Stopping them on early downs and putting them behind the chains has always been the key to stopping them, and the Notre Dame defense will present challenges that the Middies’ offense has yet to face. How QB Blake Horvath and Slotback Eli Heidenreich fare will go a long way in dictating how well Navy ultimately performs.
For an Irish defense that leads college football in interceptions, the focus this week will be on turnovers of the fumble variety. Last season, they forced five from Horvath. Given the wet weather forecast for the game, and the speed of the ND front seven, they will expect to create more havoc in the Navy backfield.
Horvath, though, is a dangerous runner, with six straight 100-yard games, while Heidenreich has set receiving records in the pass-happier Naval offense. They say the first key to stopping the Navy offense is taking away the Fullback Dive. That priority may not have changed, but the other options available to HC Brian Newberry make Navy such a dangerous opponent.
For all that, however, the Midshipmen’s defense lost a lot of experience and production after last season and has regressed to below average. Even against mediocre offenses they have struggled, and that bodes poorly when facing Love, Price, Carr and co. Presumably, they will load the box and hope that a combination of their own long drives, together with inclement weather, can slow down the ND attack because their own ability to stop both the run and pass is very suspect. DT Landon Robinson was first-team all-conference last season and their best player on that side of the ball, but he will be up against the best IOL, by some margin, that he’ll see this year.
Their kicking game is better than average – so way better than Notre Dame’s then – though Irish fans will be very disappointed, and not a little worried, if the game comes down to who can kick FGs better
Game Prediction
NOTRE DAME 42-17 NAVY
Navy will struggle against an Irish defense that is too big and too fast, while Carr’s first-half TD passes and the RB’s second-half rushing TDs will see ND move to a seventh straight win.
Where to Watch
Sky Sports NFL (Channel 412 on Sky) coverage starts at 12.30am GMT
NBC (in the USA)
Playoff Picture
Now that we have an idea of who the playoff committee rates more highly than others, and probably why, fans’ thoughts naturally turn to November’s most important question: who do we want to lose? For Irish fans, many of the usual rules apply. Texas A&M and Miami winning is good. Ditto USC.
Elsewhere, an Iowa win over Oregon would be nice. As would a Texas Tech win over an unbeaten BYU. Beyond that, the scope for upsets is not wide, but with college football, who knows what post-Halloween chaos could ensue?
STIOFÁN MAC FHILIB
COLLEGE FOOTBALL ANALYST
A VERY LONG-DISTANCE SUBWAY ALUMNUS OF NOTRE DAME, COUNTY ANTRIM-BASED STIOFÁN HAS BEEN A FAN OF THE FIGHTING IRISH SINCE 2000. FOLLOW HIM ON TWITTER @SMACFHILIB.