CFB: Notre Dame Fighting Irish Week 8 Preview
By Stiofán Mac Fhilib
As Notre Dame keeps notching up victories week by week, and others ahead of them in the polls lose one by one, Irish fans can’t help but speculate on what it would take elsewhere for a 10-2 ND team to make the playoffs. The most important thing would be for the Irish to actually reach ten wins; with zero margin for error left, that is a little easier said than done.
And of all their six remaining games, by far the toughest will be the visit of Lincoln Riley’s 5-1 USC Trojans to South Bend this weekend. For Marcus Freeman’s roster, this is a de facto playoff game in prime time, and against their biggest rival.
Looking Back at Last Week
For the second consecutive week, Notre Dame fans were treated to a game where the result never felt in doubt, the smothering defense only gave up seven first-half points on an interception-filled afternoon. The Irish offense did more than enough to win comfortably while still failing to convert a pair of red zone fourth downs and not getting near to its full capability.
The visitors, who appeared to have deliberately chosen uniforms to match those worn by Northern Illinois on their more successful trip to South Bend in 2024, were clearly not in the mood to lose to the Irish run game. They stacked the box – limiting ND to 3.7 yards per carry, and Love and Price to ‘only’ 152 yards on the ground – and dared CJ Carr to beat them. Which, of course, the redshirt freshman did, throwing for 342 yards and a pair of TDs.
Love did start and end the day’s scoring with short yardage runs. Still, in between, it was Carr taking advantage of the injury-ravaged NC State secondary, particularly with slot receiver Will Pauling and TE Eli Rairdon. Backup WR, KK Smith, also caught his first TD pass in an Irish jersey, and fans were treated to one of the more unusual safeties you’ll see, on a fumbled snap at the one-yard line that was grounded just inside the end zone.
The biggest concern for ND fans remains the short-yardage play calling, especially in the red zone and on fourth down. Failing to convert twice, for the second week running, could prove costly in a tighter contest, such as what might be offered by USC on Saturday night. It’s a puzzle, given the skill position talent available to OC, Mike Denbrock, and one he needs to solve somewhat urgently.
The defense is clearly heading in the opposite direction, much to the pleasant surprise of every Irish fan who was cursing Chris Ash at halftime in the Purdue game. So, pretty much every Irish fan then! Since that interval, ND has been allowing under ten points per game. Against a dangerous Wolfpack offense, they held them to 23 points below their season average score, 86 yards below their average passing total and 98 yards below their rushing average.
RB, Hollywood Smothers, entered the game as one of the most prolific offensive players so far this season. He left with 46 yards on 12 carries, with a longest gain of just 10 yards, but also still possibly the best name Notre Dame will face in 2025!
The Wolfpack never made it into the ND red zone, scoring on a 45-yard second-quarter pass and only entering Irish territory on two further occasions. The Irish pass defense has regained its swagger and has picked off seven passes in the last pair of outings. But that will all be sorely tested against one of the very best offenses in college football come Saturday.
The Week Ahead
#20 USC Trojans (Notre Dame Stadium); 7.30pm EDT; 12.30am IST/BST
No rivalry in all of college football combines more national championships, Heisman Trophy winners, NFL draft picks and hall of fame players than that begun back in 1926 by Notre Dame legend, Knute Rockne, and USC head coach, Howard Jones, a man Rockne himself recommended to the Trojans.
Before this season, the Irish had faced their previous three opponents a grand total of four times. By contrast, this will be the 96th occasion that they take on USC. And despite the suggestions from some in Southern California, please God not the last in the series. Only World War II (1943-1945) and a global pandemic (2020) have so far interrupted the Greatest Intersectional Rivalry in all of College Football. It would be beyond shameful if cowardice from a minority, albeit a very influential one, at University Park were to halt it.
While ND lead the series overall 52-38-5, it has been one that has seen significant periods of dominance down the years from one side then the other. From 1940 to 1961, the Irish were 15-3-1. From 1967 to 1982, USC dominated 12-2-2, costing Ara Parseghian at least a couple of national titles on top of the two he did secure. From 1983 to the end of the Lou Holtz era in 1995, the Irish never lost, going 12-0-1, which allowed Holtz to mock his Pacific Coast rival regularly.
The Davie/Willingham/Weis era in South Bend saw the Trojans, mostly under Pete Carroll, set an 11-3 mark between 1996 and 2009. However, since the arrival of Brian Kelly in 2010, and continuing under Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame has a current 10-4 record, and they haven’t lost at home to USC since 2011. USC has also lost 15 of their last 16 games played in the Central or Eastern Time zones.
That said, they have a high-powered offence that leads the nation in various key offensive statistics, both in the pass and the run game. Perhaps that is in part a reflection of the defenses they have faced to date, but UNLV transfer QB Jayden Maiava has some serious weapons to use at the skill positions, even with the attrition in the RB room.
Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane are a massive pass-catching threat, especially with Lemon in the slot. The extent to which Irish DC Chris Ash relies on zone coverage will be interesting to watch, as will how often he puts Leonard Moore on Lemon, regardless of where he lines up.
The Trojan OL is not a strength, but between getting his passes out quickly and executing screens very well and very often, Lincoln Riley is excellent at covering for this via his schemes.
Defensively USC improved noticeably during new DC D’Anton Lynn’s first year in 2024. However, they haven’t continued on a similar trajectory this season so far and have yet to face an offense anywhere near as potent as Notre Dame’s.
Their secondary is prone to big plays, and while they love to blitz, when they don’t get home, they have been burned repeatedly by QBs not as good as CJ Carr. They have also found it hard to stop opponents from running when they want or need to, and with rain forecasted during the game, they can expect to be tested by the much-vaunted Irish run game.
Should the game prove to be close, then Riley has a very good kicker in Ryon Sayeri, who is 9-10 for the year on FGs with a longest of 54 yards. And as usual, the Trojans are dangerous in the return game. Special Teams could be a crucial deciding factor on the night, and Marty Biagi may need to delve into his bag of tricks for the Irish.
Game Prediction
NOTRE DAME 35-27 USC
Both teams will have more scoring drives than not, but the key will be the Irish forcing the Trojans to kick field goals often enough to allow them to win an uncomfortably close contest eventually. On a wet evening, it will be the Love and Price show. And ND fans will Love it when the Price is right!
Where to Watch
Sky Sports NFL (Channel 412 on Sky) coverage starts at 12.30am IST/BST
NBC (in the USA)
Playoff Picture
Defeats for Oklahoma and Missouri last weekend helped further thin the ranks of the unbeaten teams. As long as Notre Dame can remain on track for a 10-2 regular season, they want as many P4 contenders as possible to have at least two, but ideally more, losses.
This week, one of LSU and Vanderbilt, and one of Tennessee and Alabama, will get their second ‘L’. Irish fans will also be cheering for upsets by South Carolina, Duke and Utah.
By Sunday evening, ND could be in the top 11 in the AP poll. Ahead of the playoff committee’s first rankings in a couple of weeks, that would represent a significant milestone on the road back to playoff redemption. But first, they need to channel the mantra of another person associated with football in Los Angeles and “just win, baby”.
STIOFÁN MAC FHILIB
COLLEGE FOOTBALL ANALYST
A VERY LONG-DISTANCE SUBWAY ALUMNUS OF NOTRE DAME, COUNTY ANTRIM-BASED STIOFÁN HAS BEEN A FAN OF THE FIGHTING IRISH SINCE 2000. FOLLOW HIM ON TWITTER @SMACFHILIB.