Why Quinn Ewers could be a dark horse Rookie of the Year candidate
By Tom Clapham
The notion of a seventh round quarterback contending for Offensive Rookie of the Year might initially sound far-fetched. While Quinn Ewers is undoubtedly a significant outsider – he is absent from conventional betting pools – I think there is a compelling case for why he could emerge as the league’s top offensive rookie.
This conclusion is not based on Ewers having some great untapped potential, nor the surrounding talent and coaching staff in Miami. Instead, it comes down to my lack of confidence in three key factors: the durability of Tua, the ability of Zach Wilson, and the strength of this incoming rookie class.
Tua and the treatment table
The first domino that would need to fall for Ewers to get anywhere near this award would be Tua facing further injury setbacks. I am a Dolphins fan and our best chance to win as a team is with Tua under center. That being said, I have absolutely zero confidence at this point in his career that he has the ability to stay healthy for a full season. After all, he has managed just one complete season in his five years in the league.
His history of concussions is particularly concerning. He now has four since 2019, with two of these coming in 2022 and one in 2024. Speculation says the actual number may be higher. This is clearly an issue, and it feels like it may be only a matter of time before Tua decides that his long-term health is more important than football. There were calls for his retirement last year, and if he suffers another concussion this year, it may be taken out of his hands.
The ineffective 'Zach Attack'
Should Tagovailoa be sideline, the Dolphins’ current alternative is Zach Wilson. While I am glad to see Wilson getting a fresh start, his performance so far in his career offers little indication that he can be an effective starter. He struggled badly during his time with the Jets and didn’t even see the field during his lone season with the Broncos. In his four years in the NFL he has a record of 12-21. The dysfunction of the Jets can be blamed for some of this, but Wilson clearly struggles to lead an NFL offense.
More than a clipboard holder
“They thought he was a third or fourth round pick, but too big of a name to be a clipboard holder”. That was the response from Quinn Ewers’ agent Ron Slavin when asked about why he fell to the seventh round. It is a bit of an exaggeration (and somewhat conspiratorial) although it is true that Ewers definitely has what he needs to succeed at this level, especially in light of his landing spot. With an oft-injured QB1 and an ineffective QB2, Ewers could certainly find playing time as a rookie.
If this opportunity does come I think he could really impress. After all, he is an obvious fit in Mike McDaniel’s scheme and this offense has shown the ability to create fireworks. We know how much these awards voters love quarterbacks too.
Why the favourites may struggle
On top of Ewers’ potential pathway to playing time, I think there are also very real reasons why some of the betting favourites for Offensive Rookie of the Year may struggle.
Ashton Jeanty
As the current betting favourite, Ashton Jeanty enjoyed a dynamic college season, finishing as the Heisman Trophy runner-up. He joins a team seemingly committed to a run-first offensive philosophy. On the surface, this suggests there is potential for significant production from Jeanty in Nevada. However, there are some notable obstacles he will have to overcome to win the award. He will likely have to share the receiving work with veteran running back Raheem Mostert, and I don’t trust the Raiders’ quarterback situation. That will allow defenses to load up the box and commit to stopping the run. That could be tough for a rookie running back to overcome.
Travis Hunter
Travis Hunter enters the NFL with considerable hype, showcasing elite potential as both a wide receiver and a cornerback. His versatility was evident in college, where he arguably could have been a top pick at either position. However, replicating that level of two-way dominance in the NFL will be a far greater challenge. The competition at this level is significantly more intense, and he will face established, high-calibre players at both positions vying for playing time. If he does decide to play both positions he may struggle to put up the production necessary to win the award. Increased snaps on both offense and defense also elevate the risk of injury and potentially expose him to more opportunities for mistakes.
Cam Ward
The Tennessee Titans’ current rebuilding phase presents a significant hurdle for any of their rookies. While Cam Ward should represent an upgrade at quarterback following the team’s previous struggles at the position, the roster lacks established playmakers. Even with improved quarterback play, it is unlikely Ward will have the supporting cast necessary to generate the kind of standout season typically required to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. His rookie campaign is likely to be a challenging one, regardless of his individual talent.
Tetairoa McMillan
While Tetairoa McMillan projects as the primary receiving target in Carolina, this might actually hinder his Offensive Rookie of the Year aspirations. A quick assessment of the Panthers’ offensive roster reveals a lack of dynamic playmakers beyond McMillan. Veteran Adam Thielen is nearing the end of his career, and other young receivers have yet to fully establish themselves. Consequently, opposing defenses will likely be able to focus their coverage heavily on McMillan, making it difficult for him to consistently produce the standout numbers often associated with this award, even with a young quarterback looking his way.
Omarion Hampton
A good friend of mine, who happens to have a good eye for running back talent, is convinced that Hampton is the future for the Chargers. I don’t disagree on his long-term potential, but I do think he will be sharing the backfield as a rookie. The Chargers signed Najee Harris this offseason, who was brought in to be their starter. Harris has been a consistent and reliable player in his career thus far and unless Hampton significantly outperforms Harris in training camp and earns the starting role, his opportunities to accumulate the necessary statistics for this award will likely be limited.
WIth those hurdles for other rookies and the potential path to playing time in Miami, there is certainly a case to be made for Ewers as a dark horse candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year. If he is able to get onto the field, he is in arguably the best situation of any rookie quarterback, and that counts for something. Ewers is often absent from betting markets, but if you can find him listed it could well be worth a wager.
Tom Clapham
NFL Contributor
Tom has been writing about sports since 2016, previously contributing a wide variety of different disciplines, however he always returned to his first love, the NFL. With an opinion on everything that goes on in the league, you can check him out on X @TommyClaps