Why Is Oregon Football Struggling? Inside the Ducks' 2026 Collapse
By Owain Jones
From national championship contenders to unranked in the space of six weeks, Oregon’s 2026 season has unravelled before it was supposed to even begin.
Saturday’s devastating 17-15 defeat to UCLA leaves the Ducks 3-2, with serious questions about what they can achieve. But let’s be frank. With Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan, and Washington still to come, Oregon’s national championship ambitions are hanging on by a thread.
We certainly didn’t see this coming. We predicted the Ducks would finish 11-1 and considered them genuine national championship contenders. With Dante Moore returning, one of college football’s most talented receiving groups and a defensive front loaded with future NFL players, this is one of the best rosters in football.
Oregon entered the season ranked No. 2 in the AP Poll, its highest preseason ranking in program history. This was supposed to be the year Oregon finally got over the hump, after losing twice to Indiana last season and reaching the CFP semifinals.
Instead, perhaps we underestimated just how difficult replacing Will Stein and Tosh Lupoi would be, and overestimated how far the talent alone could carry Oregon.
Oregon's Offense Has Lost Its Physical Identity
The most frustrating thing about watching Oregon this season is how little authority they play with.
The Ducks look sluggish, a step behind and lacking the intensity we’ve come to expect from Dan Lanning’s teams. There isn’t the same conviction or urgency that allows a team to impose itself physically and dictate how games are played. And that appears to be filtering through the entire offensive operation.
Oregon averaged 198.6 rushing yards per game last season. Against its four FBS opponents in 2026, that figure has fallen to just 105, a decline of almost 47%.
That’s an alarming drop for a program with Oregon’s resources, particularly with Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. returning in the backfield.
Yes, the offensive line has experienced turnover, with Emmanuel Pregnon and Alex Harkey departing for the NFL, while injuries have complicated matters further. But Oregon was supposed to have the depth to absorb those losses. They also returned Iapani Laloulu, a Rimington Trophy finalist who entered the season with 30 consecutive starts.
Instead, the Ducks have not been imposing, managing 90 rushing yards against Oklahoma State and just 73 against UCLA.
Even in the impressive victory over USC, Oregon managed only 138 yards on the ground, which shows how the running game hasn’t consistently provided the foundation for the offense.
But the problems extend beyond the running game.
Oregon converted only four third downs against Boise State in Week 1, managed just 12 first downs and allowed four sacks against Oklahoma State in Week 2, and committed an extraordinary seven turnovers in Saturday’s defeat. It is clunky football that lacks rhythm and timing.
Interestingly, Oregon has scored on 22 of its 23 red-zone opportunities this season, including 18 touchdowns. Finishing drives hasn’t been the problem. It’s getting there consistently enough, with the running game struggling to create manageable situations and the offense repeatedly failing to sustain possessions.
Championship teams need explosive plays, but they also need to execute the ordinary stuff. Oregon has too often struggled to establish the tempo and physical control that allows an offense to dictate games.
Why Oregon's Win Over USC Makes Its Struggles Even More Frustrating
After early-season falters, a lackluster performance against Boise State and the loss to Oklahoma State, there should have been a turning point. Which makes the 41-27 victory over USC even more perplexing.
The Ducks produced 504 yards without allowing a sack or committing a turnover in the Coliseum. Dylan Raiola replaced the injured Moore and completed 19 of 25 passes for 289 yards and two touchdowns, giving fans hope.
For one afternoon, Oregon looked like the offensive powerhouse we expected.
But that performance now feels like the exception rather than the standard.
Raiola’s struggles against UCLA only reinforced the inconsistency. One week, Oregon’s backup quarterback looked capable of keeping the offense humming against a talented opponent. The next, the Ducks couldn’t sustain drives and repeatedly handed UCLA possession.
It’s difficult to look at those performances and conclude that Oregon doesn’t have the players. The ability is there.
The question is why the Ducks haven’t consistently been able to bring it together.
And that brings us back to Moore.
Why Oregon's Offensive Problems Are Exposing Dante Moore's Limitations
Moore’s return was supposed to be one of the final pieces in Oregon’s championship puzzle. A quarterback projected as a potential No. 2 overall selection in the 2026 NFL Draft returning to school was always going to boost expectations.
There have always been questions about his ceiling as an NFL prospect, and Oregon’s offensive struggles have provided another opportunity to examine those concerns.
Moore is a polished, rhythm-based passer who wins with anticipation, accuracy, and operational efficiency. He can be extremely effective within structure, but his average physical tools and limited creativity make him more dependent on timing and rhythm than the elite quarterbacks.
He’s a good quarterback. But he can’t consistently elevate an offense when everything around him isn’t working.
Statistically, there isn’t much to criticise. He is a particular style of quarterback who fits particular systems. Before his concussion, Moore had thrown nine touchdowns without an interception, averaging 9.4 yards per attempt.
His second-half response against Oklahoma State also deserves credit. After Oregon managed just 101 first-half yards, Moore connected on explosive throws to Dakorien Moore and Evan Stewart, helping the Ducks briefly take the lead.
He also had to contend with four sacks and three first-half drops, making it difficult to attribute Oregon’s offensive problems in that game entirely to his performance.
But when the running game disappears, his protection becomes inconsistent, and the offense loses its rhythm, Moore hasn’t demonstrated the creative ability to overcome those problems and carry the offense on his back.
How Losing Will Stein Has Hurt Oregon's Offense
Which makes the departure of Will Stein particularly significant for Moore’s progression and Oregon’s lack of offensive efficiency.
We knew Stein was an excellent offensive coordinator. His Oregon offense averaged 36.9 points and 452.2 yards per game last season, helping Moore develop into one of the country’s most highly regarded quarterbacks. What we perhaps didn’t appreciate was how difficult replacing him would be.
Drew Mehringer’s promotion made sense in the context of this team. He knew the personnel, understood the system, and had been part of Lanning’s staff since 2022 and had served as co-offensive coordinator.
But familiarity with an offense doesn’t automatically mean being able to coordinate it with the same effectiveness.
Under Stein, Oregon had a sharpness and consistency to its offensive operation. The Ducks could move the chains, establish rhythm, and capitalise on explosive opportunities when they presented themselves. That is precisely the environment in which Moore has proven he thrives.
Now Oregon looks less decisive and less purposeful. And when the offensive structure becomes less reliable, Moore’s limitations become more apparent.
The contrast with Stein’s new program at Kentucky is fascinating.
The Wildcats are 5-1, with two top-10 victories and consecutive 35-34 overtime wins against South Carolina and LSU, both secured through decisive two-point conversions.
Kentucky overturned a 17-0 deficit against South Carolina, then found another way to win against LSU. Stein even adjusted the intended look before calling the quarterback run that secured the winning two-point conversion against the Tigers.
There’s a resilience and conviction to Kentucky’s offense that Oregon has too often lacked. Stein’s team has showcased adaptability and the ability to execute in defining moments, even when games aren’t going to plan.
That doesn’t mean Stein would have Oregon undefeated. Far from it. But it does suggest we underestimated how much of Oregon’s offensive success depended on his ability to make exceptional individual talents function together.
The question isn’t whether Mehringer can produce an explosive offense. USC proved he can. It’s whether he can establish the consistency, situational execution, and week-to-week reliability that Stein brought to Oregon. So far, he hasn’t.
Dan Lanning Must Take Responsibility for Oregon's Decline
Tosh Lupoi’s departure to Cal also deserves consideration, particularly after Oregon surrendered 554 yards and 39 points against Oklahoma State.
The Cowboys rushed for 237 yards, a particularly disappointing return for a defense built around a talented front featuring Matayo Uiagalelei, Teitum Tuioti, Bear Alexander and A’Mauri Washington.
But the defensive picture is more complicated. Against UCLA, Chris Hampton’s unit allowed just 17 points despite seven offensive turnovers, generated three takeaways and recorded seven tackles for loss.
Opponents have also converted only 15 of 68 third downs against the Ducks this season.
The defense gave Oregon more than enough opportunities to beat UCLA, despite the offense repeatedly putting it in difficult positions. There have been defensive lapses, yes, but the most persistent problems are offensive.
And ultimately, responsibility falls on Lanning.
He’s assembled one of college football’s most talented rosters and established Oregon as a program capable of competing with anybody. But building the roster is only part of the job.
He’s responsible for the coaching appointments, preparation, and ensuring the standards remain.
Lanning also identified problems with offensive rhythm, tackling, eye discipline, and winning at the point of attack earlier in the year.
After Oklahoma State, Lanning admitted, “I didn’t prepare our guys well enough.” That was nearly a month before the UCLA disaster and before Moore’s injury complicated the situation.
Following Saturday’s defeat, he acknowledged that “Our whole staff wears it. Our whole team wears it.” And he’s right.
Lanning has since indicated that changes have been made to his coaching operation, although he’s remained coy about exactly what those changes involve. Whether that means different responsibilities, adjustments to the decision-making process, or something more substantial remains unclear.
But the fact he’s making changes only six weeks into the season is telling. Something clearly hasn’t been working, and Lanning knows it.
Injuries have mattered, Oregon has experienced personnel turnover, and UCLA deserves credit for emerging as a legitimate Big Ten contender. But those circumstances don’t explain why a team with this much talent has so frequently lacked conviction, physicality, and offensive consistency.
Dan Lanning Must Take Responsibility for Oregon's Decline
At 3-2, with Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan, and Washington still to come, Oregon’s national championship ambitions are all but finished.
The expanded College Football Playoff means the Ducks aren’t mathematically finished, but they’ve left themselves almost no margin for error. And nothing about their performances against Oklahoma State or UCLA suggests they’re ready to navigate that remaining schedule without another setback.
We entered the season convinced the Ducks had everything needed to win it all. And on paper they did. But looking back, perhaps we spent too much time admiring the individual talent and the brilliance of the roster and not enough considering what it takes to make that talent work together.
That’s the uncomfortable lesson of Oregon’s season so far.
Lanning has recruited the players, but replacing the coaches who helped make them so effective has proven considerably more difficult than anticipated.
Oregon was supposed to take the final step towards a national championship in 2026. Instead, six weeks into the season, the Ducks look further away than ever.
OWAIN JONES
COLLEGE FOOTBALL & NFL DRAFT ANALYST
OWAIN jones COVERS EVERYTHING college football & NFL DRAFT. COMING WITH PLENTY OF EXPERIENCE, OWAIN was PREVIOUSLY a writer for pfsn, and WAS THE NFL DRAFT EDITOR AT NINETY-NINE YARDS, WHERE HE CREATED DRAFT TALK. YOU CAN FOLLOW HIM ON TWITTER @OwainJonesCFB.
