The Running Back Market is Dead
By Lee Wakefield
The running back market is dead. It is lifeless. It is deceased, defunct, and barren. And it stinks.
There is no security in being a running back in the NFL anymore. Whether you’re productive or not, the lifespan is short and you are expendable.
To counter this, running backs have wanted to take advantage of when their payday finally comes along. But as of right now, NFL front offices are not playing ball.
We have seen it throughout the offseason. Austin Ekeler requested a trade from the Chargers. The Chargers obliged and allowed their star running back to seek one. Despite 38 touchdowns in two seasons, no team took a bite.
Josh Jacobs, the NFL rushing leader in 2022, and former second-overall pick Saquon Barkley were both franchise-tagged back in March. Neither player has come away with a long-term deal, the long-term security that they wanted for themselves and their families. Security for putting their bodies on the line each week for their team.
It is what it is
— Saquon Barkley (@saquon) July 17, 2023
Make no mistake these players are stars. They are integral pieces of their offenses. But nobody wants to pay a running back big money.
In fact, the biggest payday currently for running backs drafted in the first round could be the day they sign their rookie contract. For example, Bijan Robinson, this year’s 8th overall pick has a cash total in year 1 of his deal of $13,719,844. Only $750,000 of that is his base salary, the rest is his signing bonus.
No other running back in the league is making within $1.5m of that cash amount this season. And Bijan has yet to take an NFL snap.
Running backs are being treated like new cars – As soon as you drive it off the forecourt, it drops in value.
Some may actually say that running backs around the league are actually treated like old, used cars – You buy them cheap, run them into the ground and then get another one.
However, these aren’t cheap, old players, I am talking about, these players are premium athletes. Some of the most exciting in the sport.
And they want to fight back. Not only have they given each other their support on social media, but they have also banded together and want this problem solved.
Each year ESPN releases the results of their poll of executives, coaches, and scouts and provides a top 10 ranking for each position. One thing to note about the running back results is that of the top 10, only two are signed through the 2025 season.
This is a problem for some of the game’s best players.
How does the NFL fix this problem? Does the league even want to?
There has been a rise in the passing game over the past decade. More emphasis on passing the football, recently a trend of smaller wide receivers, and the modern-day movement towards positionless offensive football have all contributed towards making the ground game less important.
That said, running the ball is still a big part of the game, especially come January. Just ask the Chargers! If L.A. could run the ball they probably wouldn’t have succumbed to an embarrassing playoff collapse last season.
Front offices will have a counterpoint to that. Yes, recent Superbowl winners have all been able to run the ball, but it’s either with cheap veterans or late-round draft picks. Leonard Fournette and Isaiah Pacheco are two recent examples.
The rise of the multi-headed running back stable combined with genius offensive play-caller, such as Sean McVay, Andy Reid, or Kyle Shanahan have helped to keep costs low at the position but success high for the team. Lastly, the efficiency gained by having a mobile, scrambling quarterback such as Jalen Hurts or Patrick Mahomes. This might be the biggest dagger in the heart of the running back market. These guys are already making a tonne of money and using them as a part of the run game or allowing them to scramble for first downs really changes the math of the run game.
So front offices and owners have answers.
Running backs are being artificially devalued, which is not fair. Worst still it is likely collusion. I wish it was different. However, until the game swings around the other way and the running game’s value equalises compared to the passing game, I don’t see the market coming back to life.
Feature Image Credit: amNewYork
Lee Wakefield
NFL, CFB & NFL Draft
Lee Wakefield IS A defensive line enthusiast, Chargers Sufferer, and LONG-TIME writer and podcaster with a number of publications. Find his Chargers content over at Bolt Beat. @Wakefield90 on twitter