The Raiders' No. 1 Pick Dilemma: Stick and Pick or Trade Down for the Future?
By Owain Jones
The Las Vegas Raiders hold the first overall selection in the 2026 NFL Draft and appear poised to select their quarterback of the future. But is it really that simple? The No. 1 overall pick is one of the most valuable assets in football, and suitors will undoubtedly be circling, eager to move up.
The situation grows more complex as the Raiders have fired Pete Carroll following their 3-14 season, and reports indicate that minority owner Tom Brady will take a larger role in hiring his replacement.
Should Las Vegas stick and pick a quarterback? Or should they explore moving down? Let’s examine the pros and cons of each option.
The Case for Drafting a Quarterback
The Raiders haven’t drafted a quarterback in the first round since JaMarcus Russell in 2007, a drought spanning nearly two decades. However, Russell embodied what can go wrong when selecting signal-callers. The hit rate is much narrower than at other positions, and botching the decision can define a regime and lead to perpetual mediocrity.
Yet sometimes the opportunity outweighs everything.
Selecting a quarterback first overall can transform how a franchise operates, and the Raiders desperately need that transformation. It forces teams to invest in key positions as they look to surround him with talent, while also dictating coaching hires.
For the Raiders, change is essential. Geno Smith threw for 3,025 yards and 19 touchdowns to 17 interceptions with a passer rating of 84.7 while being sacked a league-high 55 times in 2025. The veteran QB has a guaranteed salary of $18.5 million coming in 2026 per OverTheCap, regardless of his roster status, and could add another $8 million to that figure if he’s still on the roster on the third day of the league year next March.
Meanwhile, the head coach hiring process will likely also prioritize the understanding that Las Vegas will draft a passer. Every coaching candidate interviewing for this position understands the Raiders are selecting a quarterback. The franchise will make it abundantly clear through the interview process that the signal-caller is paramount, and whichever coach lands the job will be expected to develop that player into a franchise cornerstone, directly tying a head coach’s success to the development of their quarterback.
A new head coach with a new quarterback also provides immediate operational stability. It allows schemes to evolve and stops the revolving door at both levels.
Modern NFL history proves that teams without franchise quarterbacks exist in perpetual rebuild mode. The sport revolves around the quarterback position. The Raiders can address offensive line, wide receiver, and defensive needs in subsequent rounds or through free agency, but without a quarterback, none of it matters. The Browns have accumulated draft picks for years and remain irrelevant because they haven’t solved the quarterback puzzle. The Jets traded for multiple first-rounders and still can’t escape mediocrity without a signal-caller. The Raiders risk falling into that same trap if they trade down rather than taking their quarterback.
The Case for Trading Down
The argument for trading down doesn’t rest on whether they need a quarterback. That much is obvious; they do. The question centers on whether the roster is ready to develop one.
The Raiders field the second-worst offensive line unit in the NFL, as they have allowed pressure on 40.7% of their true dropbacks, ranking fourth-worst in the league. However, on true dropbacks without a screen or play action, their pressure rate is 45.1% (second-worst in the NFL), and Las Vegas has the NFL’s third-worst sack rate (11.1%).
These numbers are catastrophic for developing rookie signal-callers. Smith was sacked a league-high 55 times despite being an experienced veteran who understands how to manipulate pockets and release the football quickly. Every young passer needs an adequate offensive line to develop properly, regardless of mobility or processing speed, and the Raiders’ offensive line currently allows pressure in under 2.0 seconds on nearly half of all dropbacks.
Here’s where trading down could be enticing. Las Vegas could collect a haul of picks and deploy them to fix the foundational elements of the roster. There is a strong argument for not selecting a quarterback until you have fortified the roster’s infrastructure first.
Beyond the offensive line, the Raiders’ roster requires comprehensive rebuilding across multiple position groups. The defense surrendered the 25th-most points in the league, while the running game averaged a paltry 3.6 yards per carry.
Las Vegas is not a quarterback away. Trading down allows the Raiders to spread draft capital across positions where they desperately need young, cost-controlled talent.
They are not a rookie quarterback-friendly team right now, and there is potential to undermine confidence and development, wasting the early years of a rookie contract while the roster conditions remain sub-optimal.
The Verdict: Draft a Quarterback
The Raiders should draft a quarterback at No. 1 overall, most likely Fernando Mendoza. The arguments for trading down are legitimate and data-driven, but they ignore the fundamental reality of the modern NFL roster that a franchise quarterback trumps all.
Yes, the offensive line is abysmal, the defense needs help, and the supporting cast is inadequate. But none of that matters if you’re perpetually searching for a quarterback.
The “wait until the roster is ready” argument is real, true, and logical. However, that ignores the reality that NFL rosters and seasons rarely align perfectly. The opportunity to draft No. 1 overall is a rare privilege that needs to be maximized.
Additionally, the drafting of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow over the last decade has shown how selecting a quarterback first can still yield success despite imperfect circumstances.
Furthermore, drafting a quarterback at No. 1 forces organizational alignment. The entire front office must be on the same page to develop their young signal-caller and to maximize the potential.
The “wait-and-see” approach could mean teams are perpetually waiting. There is never a perfect time. But the Raiders need to show commitment. And that starts with the No. 1 overall pick.
OWAIN JONES
college football & NFL DRAFT ANALYST
OWAIN jones COVERS EVERYTHING college football & NFL DRAFT. COMING WITH PLENTY OF EXPERIENCE, OWAIN was PREVIOUSLY a writer for pfsn and WAS THE NFL DRAFT EDITOR AT NINETY-NINE YARDS WHERE HE CREATED DRAFT TALK, YOU CAN FOLLOW HIM ON TWITTER @OwainJonesCFB_