nfl week 1: four things to keep an eye on

By Tayyib Abu

Week 8 of the NFL season falls on Halloween weekend. A jam-packed slate of games is one massive treat for fans. However, teams will want to avoid any frightening moments. Week 8 promises much; here are four things to watch.

Can The Jets Look The Devil In The Eye?

Tom Pennington / Getty Images

Bill Belichick is 34-10 against the New York Jets. Belichick’s Patriots have won 12 consecutive games against the Jets. The last time New England met the Jets, they defeated New York 54-13. In the Belichick era, the Patriots have routinely humiliated the Jets. But is change afoot? Robert Saleh’s Jets are 5-2, while the Patriots are bottom of the AFC East with a 3-4 record. In a break from history, the Patriots are experiencing a quarterback controversy, and the Jets have a stifling defense…

The Jets are 10th in defensive DVOA. Pass rusher Carl Lawson is 4th in quarterback pressures. Defensive tackle Quinnen Williams leads the league in pressures for interior defenders. And in the backfield, Sauce Gardner is locking down wide receivers. The Jets defense is a legitimately strong unit. And in this game, they get to attack an offense that struggled mightily on Monday Night Football. The Patriots offense is a bottom-ten unit. Football Outsiders rank the offense 23rd in DVOA. Mac Jones is 24th in EPA per play, while the Bailey Zappe experience came to a shuddering halt against the Chicago Bears.

The Patriots are an offense stuck in an identity crisis. And the Jets’ defense is talented enough to take advantage. With sophomore quarterback Zach Wilson still struggling to find form, it feels like a defensive struggle is on the cards. Can Robert Saleh take Bill Belichick down in a direct battle? After spending two decades as the whipping boys, can the Jets finally serve up some revenge?

Enter Quarterback Number Two

Malik Willis will become the second rookie quarterback to make his NFL debut this season. With Ryan Tannehill out with illness and an ankle injury, Willis will start against the Houston Texans. It is a fascinating development for a Titans team looking good atop the AFC South. Tennessee drafted Willis in round three, and many experts liked Willis’ raw traits during the pre-draft process.

Renowned draft analyst Oli Hodgkinson was a big fan of Willis during the process. It was easy to see why. Willis displayed electrifying speed and athleticism at Liberty while he wowed with his arm velocity. But Willis fell to round three for a reason. Some analysts questioned Willis’ pro-readiness and whether he had the experience and moxie to play quarterback.

Nevertheless, fate has handed Willis a chance, and it is up to him to take it. The Texans are an honest team with plenty of heart, but they will not have prepared for Willis’ high-octane style. The Titans love running the football, and Willis’ pure ability as a runner should help with the RPO concepts that Tennesse may run. We often see the Titans use Tannehill’s mobility in the bootleg passing game, and Willis should hear similar plays get called into his headset. One way or another, fans are in for a treat watching Willis, and his wild talent take the field.

Who Predicted This?

Seahawks Draft Blog

The Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants is the only matchup this weekend to feature two teams above .500. It truly highlights the unpredictability of this NFL season. The Giants are riding momentum, confidence, and a physical run game. Brian Daboll’s side is 6-0 in one-score games. This ragtag group of players is executing in high-leverage moments and playing for one another. The goal-line stand against the Jacksonville Jaguars highlighted that perfectly. While the Giants are mediocre in many advanced statistics, they are doing brilliantly in the most crucial stat; winning.

As for the Seahawks, they are riding the coattails of Geno Smith and a burgeoning crop of rookies. Smith is top-ten in QBR, EPA per play, Next Gen Passer Score, and Passer Rating. The journeyman is enjoying an All-Pro caliber season, and he is getting plenty of help. Rookie running back Kenneth Walker is averaging 6.1 yards per carry and has four rushing touchdowns already. Walker is dynamite in the backfield. He is patient with home-run hitting ability. Walker has four 10+ yard touchdown runs. If he breaks loose into the second level, he is gone.

Furthermore, rookie tackles Charles Cross and Abe Lucas are playing like veterans. On the defensive side, defensive back Tariq Woolen is playing like a wild man. The Seahawks are 7th in overall DVOA. The Giants are 15th. On paper, the Seahawks are favorites. Their run game, vertical passing game, and speedy defense will trouble the Giants. However, the Giants are tough, well-drilled, and highly disciplined. Back in August, no one thought this would be a must-watch game. Well, it is, and it should not disappoint.

Can The Packers Avoid Embarrassment?

The Green Bay Packers opened as 10.5-point underdogs this week for their game against the Buffalo Bills. It is the most significant point spread in the Mike LaFleur – Aaron Rodgers era. But, as a wise man once said, ‘Vegas very rarely gets it wrong.’ The Pack has lost three consecutive games, while the Bills are back from the bye week. The last we saw Buffalo, they handled business against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Meanwhile, the Packers have lost to the Jets and Washington Commanders. The Bills are 1st in overall DVOA, 2nd in offensive DVOA, and 1st in defensive DVOA. They are the complete team. With a defense loaded with game-wrecking youngsters, perennial pro-bowlers, and a future Hall of Famer, the Bills may run riot. Green Bay’s offense is mired in quicksand, and they are sinking. Aaron Rodgers is 26th in QBR. The offense looks anemic; Green Bay is 21st in explosive passing plays, and they are the 31st-ranked offense in EPA on 3rd-down. The Packers’ offense struggles to move the ball on early downs before failing to convert on 3rd and long situations. They have a slew of problems and are heading into battle against a chainsaw. 

And the news gets worse for Green Bay when you look at the defense. They are a bottom-ten defense on early downs. They are the worst 4th quarter defense in the NFL. Their zone coverage looks are getting ripped apart while they toil against the run. The Bills will stress every facet of the Packers’ defense. Stefon Diggs is a top-five wideout. Gabe Davis is the best YAC receiver, and Isaiah McKenzie is a top-ten slot receiver. And then there is the guy under center; the Kryptonian called Josh Allen continues to defy logic with his play. The MVP favorite is an alien amongst men. Can the Packers be his kryptonite? Probably not.

TAYYIB ABU

CFB/NFL ANALYST

Tayyib is an avid NFL fan and, as a follower of the detroit lions, is a permanent resident in the honolulu blue heartbreak hotel. writing football articles since 2019, tayyib loves everything about the sport except that wins are not a qb stat. follow him on twitter @TayyibABU1

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