nfl week 5: four things to keep an eye on

By Tayyib Abu

It would be a lie to suggest that Week 5 of the NFL season started on Thursday night. The Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts played a turgid, tepid game in Colorado. Sunday will hopefully feature more excitement and entertainment. Here are four things to watch.

Is The Rhule Of Matt Over?

Sporting News

The Carolina Panthers are a bad team. At 1-3, the Panthers have endured a miserable opening four weeks, and the pressure on beleaguered head coach Matt Rhule is unimaginable. Since their 2021 bye week, the Panthers are 1-8 and are arguably the worst team in the NFC. Damningly, the Panthers are 1-26 under Rhule in games where the opponent has scored at least 17 points.

The offensive struggles have underpinned Rhule’s tenure in Carolina. Teddy Bridgewater, PJ Walker, Sam Darnold, Cam Newton, and others have endured miserable times under Rhule. The latest quarterback to enter the Carolina abyss is fairing no better. Baker Mayfield has underwhelmed through four weeks. The former 1st overall pick from 2018 is last in QBR amongst all starting quarterbacks. He is last in EPA and 31st in DYAR. Mayfield is at rock bottom and has the unenviable task of tackling a devastating San Francisco 49ers defense. 

The 49ers squashed the LA Rams on Monday Night Football, and their defense is playing lights-out football right now. Defensive end Nick Bosa leads the NFL in sacks, QB hits, pressures, and pressure rate. Fellow pass-rushers Samson Ebukam and Charles Omenihu join Bosa in the top-20 for pressures generated. Their presence will make rookie tackle Ikem Ekwonu’s day devilishly difficult. Bosa is the headline star in a 49ers defensive line that Next Gen Stats ranked 1st in the NFL. At the second level, Fred Warner is the best coverage linebacker in football, and the defensive backfield features ballhawks aplenty. 

This feels like an impossible task for the Panthers. An ugly defeat here may push Rhule over the edge.

Kenny Pickett Enters The Fire

The Pittsburgh Steelers needed change. Predictably, Mitchell Trubisky’s second act failed to make intermission. Rookie Kenny Pickett is now the starter, and he could not have been given a more difficult start. Pickett starts his first career game against Super Bowl favorites, the Buffalo Bills. At 3-1, the Bills are well-placed in a crowded AFC, and their defense is a big reason they are favorites to land the Lombardi Trophy in February.

The Bills’ pass rush is relentless. GM Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott have curated a pass-rushing rotation akin to playoff baseball teams’ pitching rotations. The Bills have eight players that have played at least 20% of snaps, but none have played more than 60%. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier keeps his charges fresh, which is a significant reason why the Bills rank third in pressure rate, despite being the lowest blitzing team in the league. Future Hall of Famer Von Miller tops the league in pass-rush win rate for a pass-rusher. It is a challenging task for a questionable Steelers offensive line. And an even bigger ask for a rookie.

But Mike Tomlin often says that the standard is the standard. Well, Pickett will get a first-hand look at a defense that is the standard. How will the home-grown rookie fare? The Steelers’ Twitter hashtag is ‘Here We Go,’ it feels apt this week.

Can Sean McVay Figure It Out?

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The LA Rams are not a good offense right now. Football Outsiders currently rank the Rams 26th in offensive DVOA. Matthew Stafford has thrown six interceptions and leads the NFL in attempts short of the sticks. And running backs Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers are in the bottom 15 for rushing yards over expected.

Oh yeah, there is more. LA’s offensive line is 29th per Pro Football Focus in pass-blocking on true passing sets. The Rams’ offense looks broken at every level. Not too dissimilar to the 2019-20 season when they missed out on the playoffs. Once deemed unpredictable and creative, the Rams look predictable and devoid of game-changing plays. Stafford targeted wideout Cooper Kupp 19 times on Monday night. If you added the targets of Allen Robinson and Tyler Higbee, you would get 20. That is from two players.

LA’s offense has flat-lined, and they host a rampant Dallas Cowboys side in Week 5. The Cowboys’ pass rush is playing dominant, destructive football. Dallas has five players that have registered at least eight pressures. Dallas also leads the NFL in quarterback pressures. What makes this Dallas defensive front so tough to defend is how versatile they are. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has plenty of tricks up his sleeve. Do not feel surprised when Dallas overloads one side of the line, walks Leighton Van Der Esch up as a simulated blitzer, or has four players all play in a two-point stance.

And lastly, keep an eye on 3rd and long situations where Quinn will unleash his four pass-rushers in a NASCAR package made famous by the New York Giants a decade ago. 

Stafford and McVay must be red-alert when adjusting protections and changing plays at the line. More importantly, Henderson and Akers must chip-block well in this game. Both failed in that department in Week 1, resulting in a battered Stafford. McVay must conjure up some creativity and innovation on offense. They can not rely on Kupp to do everything. Free agent acquisition Robinson needs to step up. The former Chicago Bear ranks 144th out of 145 receivers in average separation. He cannot get open. The Rams need him. Their passing offense is one-dimensional. 

Sean McVay is praised as a genius. If he really is the man, he needs one of the best game plans of his career to stop Dallas.

Who Will Walk The AFC North Wire?

The first meeting between the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals promises fireworks. Last season, the Bengals routed the Ravens twice, as Joe Burrow’s side swept Baltimore. However, in 2020, the Ravens destroyed Cincinnati twice, including a shutout. Both teams are 2-2, and a win may count for more than just divisional supremacy come December.

The Bengals have begun to emerge from their two-deep safety nightmare in the last two weeks and are coming off a mini-bye. The Ravens have trailed for 14 seconds this season and are 2-2. Late game collapses on both sides of the ball are to blame. Last Sunday, the Ravens did not score a single point in the second half. Against the Miami Dolphins, the defense blew the game as they surrendered a two-touchdown lead in the 4th quarter. The Bengals are still sputtering on offense, and they have yet to find a consistent rhythm to their offense.

Divisional matchups are often decided on which team minimizes mistakes. Both teams may need to walk a tightrope to escape with a win. It feels like another game where plenty of eyes will be glued to the sidelines in the late stages.

TAYYIB ABU

CFB/NFL ANALYST

Tayyib is an avid NFL fan and, as a follower of the detroit lions, is a permanent resident in the honolulu blue heartbreak hotel. writing football articles since 2019, tayyib loves everything about the sport except that wins are not a qb stat. follow him on twitter @TayyibABU1

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