nfl week 16: four things to keep an eye on
By Tayyib Abu
Merry Christmas, football fans! This year, the best gifts come a day late as the NFL has a full Sunday slate packed with big games and storylines. The games kicked off on Thursday as the Titans got a much-needed win over an in-form 49ers side. Christmas night served up two crackers as the Browns, Packers, Colts, and Cardinals were all in action.
There are only three weeks left of the regular season, and a record number of teams are still fighting for their playoff destiny. Mix that with more Covid unpredictability, and it is the most challenging time of the year for the clubs vying for playoff spots. It promises to be another dramatic, unpredictable, and controversial week in the NFL.
Here are four things to watch in Week 16 of the NFL season…
We Know Who's Up Next
Sean McDermott ended last week’s post-game locker room speech with one sentence; “We know who’s next.” The Bills head coach immediately turned his focus to the New England Patriots. Buffalo and New England meet the day after Christmas for all the marbles in the AFC East. The first matchup was a tense, physical affair in ugly conditions. Bill Belichick’s master plan worked as the Patriots befuddled Buffalo that Monday night. That loss hurt Sean McDermott and the Bills players, and it is crystal clear how desperate they are to exact revenge in Foxborough.
The Patriots themselves got beaten last weekend by the Indianapolis Colts. It was a stark reminder that no one is invincible in the AFC, and Mac Jones is still a rookie regardless of his maturity. Indianapolis didn’t employ an exotic game plan; they dominated the line of scrimmage on offense and defense. The question now is, can the Buffalo Bills replicate the Colts’ performance.
Stylistically, Buffalo doesn’t match up well. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll’s offense, is predicated on Josh Allen’s strengths. Allen is a playmaking gunslinger capable of brilliance and baffling decisions. The Bills don’t possess a safety valve on offense; the unit thrives or dies based on Allen. That suits the Patriots’ defense. New England’s secondary is arguably the best in the NFL. JC Jackson is playing at an All-Pro level, while the staple of rotating Safeties New England provides them an opportunity to spin out of different coverages.
New England’s defensive backfield routinely puzzles quarterbacks due to showing a plethora of formations. Allen’s main opportunities may arise when the Patriots are in their tried and trusted single-high safety look. Then it becomes a chess match between Allen and Devin McCourty. Buffalo must take their shots when presented with them. Falling into second, third, and long against New England is a recipe for defeat.
Buffalo can’t run the ball successfully. The running game is an afterthought in their offense, and the onus rests on Allen. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots are without Rhamondre Stevenson and Kendrick Bourne. In the first meeting, New England took Buffalo’s soul by running all over Buffalo’s front seven. The Patriots’ run game is a symphony of orchestrated violence. New England can establish dominance by using heavy personnel packages and manipulating Buffalo’s linebackers. Fullback Jakub Johnson is a vital cog in clearing second-level defenders for running back Damien Harris.
New England is seventh in percentage of running plays called. It is their offensive identity. However, only 29% of plays called were running plays last week. Indianapolis shut the Pats’ running game down last Saturday, and they then capitalized on a few Mac Jones errors. Buffalo’s secondary sits second in Football Outsiders’ statistics. While some of those numbers are inflated by playing the Jets, Texans, Steelers, and Dolphins, Buffalo’s back-end can compete with anyone.
Back in training camp, Sean McDermott stressed how important run defense would be. It is now December, and taking care of the run is vitally important. It is the key to success for Buffalo. As for the Patriots, they’ll not stray away from their core principles unless the Bills force them away from the game plan.
It is the most significant Buffalo vs. New England matchup in the 21st century. Last year, the Patriots were a watered-down shell of a team, this year, they are the 100% concentrated beverage. Fifteen weeks of titanic football has led to this moment. Two teams desperate to claim supremacy, two head coaches determined not to concede any ground. For the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots, they do indeed know who’s up next.
The First and Second Overall Picks Clash
Last April, the Jacksonville Jaguars opted to select Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence was THE collegiate prospect. His CV in Clemson orange was outstanding. Lawrence was the no-brainer pick, and the Jags wasted no time making him the first overall pick.
Moments later, the lowly New York Jets were on the clock. Lawrence going first didn’t hurt the Jets too much. There was an embarrassment of riches still available. Jets GM Joe Douglas chose a small-statured quarterback from BYU with a rocket arm. Zach Wilson was leaving the friendly confines of Utah to headline the bright lights of New York.
Sadly, both rookies have endured testing debut seasons. Lawrence suffered as an innocent bystander of Urban Meyer’s chaotic reign in Duval County. Meanwhile, in the New Jersey swamplands, Zach Wilson has looked overawed and out of his depth as the Jets have toiled in the AFC East.
For the first time in their careers, the two quarterbacks meet each other in a game. The Jags didn’t really improve without Meyer as they went down to the Houston Texans. The Jets played hard but ultimately lost out to the Dolphins. Wilson looked better at times in South Beach. However, the Jets got dealt a bad hand this week as they placed 21 members of their team on the Covid list.
Moreover, head coach Robert Saleh is one of those members who will miss the game. It is a hammer blow for the Jets. Last week was one of the first glimpses of the Saleh philosophy, and now an understaffed team is even more diminished.
The Jags are relatively healthy, although they placed star pass-rusher, Josh Allen on the Covid list. It is always intriguing when charting rookie quarterbacks’ progress in the NFL. 2021 has demonstrated how difficult it is to play quarterback in the NFL. Nevertheless, seeing the first two players selected square off is always exciting. The Jags and Jets’ seasons are over. They are playing for draft positioning now. However, you can guarantee that these two quarterbacks will want to win over the other.
Can The Rams Strengthen Their Playoff Position?
The Minnesota Vikings are a distinctly average football team. Their 7-7 record backs that up. Sunday sees the Vikings battle the LA Rams, and both teams are fighting to punch their playoff tickets. The 10-4 Rams have picked up two big divisional wins over the last ten days, while the Vikings did enough to get past the Chicago Bears. Minnesota currently occupies the 7th seed in the NFC, and the Rams are the 5th seed. All of that could change once the clock hits double zeroes this afternoon.
The Cardinals’ wobble in the last two weeks has opened the door for the Rams. If LA wins out, they will pile the pressure on the ailing Cardinals. As for the Vikings, a win here would hold off the chasing pack. The stakes are high, and it’s time for both sides to deliver.
Two weeks ago, this writer suggested that the Rams’ Monday night game in Arizona was the biggest of Matthew Stafford’s career. The veteran quarterback left Detroit to play meaningful games in December. Stafford shone in the Monday night game, and he has another chance to tackle an old foe in Week 16.
Stafford is once again quietly enjoying another elite season. In fact, this may be the best season of his 12-year career. Only Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady have played better than the former Georgia Bulldog per Football Outsiders. Stafford is entrenching himself in the elite tier of quarterbacks, and so much of it is down to one man.
Cooper Kupp is chasing history. The electrifying wideout could break Calvin Johnson’s single-season record for receiving yards. The common denominator? The quarterback under center. Stafford and Kupp have struck an unprecedented partnership in such a short space of time. The duo power the Rams’ offense. And they’ll wish to attack a leaky Vikings secondary.
When quarterbacks target veteran corner Bashaud Breeland, their passer rating is 109. Sophomore corner Cam Dantzler allows a 73.3 passer rating when quarterbacks throw to him. More worryingly for Minnesota, they rank 24th in defending number one wide receivers. None of the above bodes well for a Vikings side fighting for a playoff berth.
Minnesota’s significant advantage over the Rams is that LA played on Wednesday due to a Covid outbreak last week. It is an incredibly short week. LA probably did not hold any padded practice. They will have scheduled walkthroughs for their scripted plays, red-zone offense, and third-down defense.
It is a tough ask for any team to play in the NFL on a short week with little practice. Minnesota’s best hope is to start fast early and force the Rams and Stafford to chase the game. The Rams are the better team on both sides of the ball, and they are more than good enough to win this game.
If specific results fall their way, the Rams could strengthen their position with a win. It is the dame for the Minnesota Vikings. However, whoever loses may open the door to the ferocious chasing pack in the NFC. Matthew Stafford traded Detroit for the bright lights of Hollywood for games like this. Ironically, the season’s biggest game pits him against a familiar foe. There’s no turning back for either team now.
The Elephant In The Room
The last two weeks have seen chaos break out across the NFL as numerous teams saw games postponed or re-scheduled due to Covid outbreaks. It is a sad reality of the situation, and it is now impacting the competitive integrity of the league. The virus has decimated the New Orleans Saints. So much so that they called Drew Brees and Philip Rivers to gauge their interest in making a comeback.
The Ravens have now lost Tyler Huntley to Covid, and they will start Josh Johnson. The Jets, as mentioned earlier, are severely understaffed as well. There are over 170 players on Covid lists in the NFL. Jared Goff, Austin Ekeler, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Quenton Nelson are some of the names on the Covid list.
Now, it is one thing to ask the Jets or Lions to play with players out due to Covid. However, the Saints and Ravens are fighting to make the playoffs. It feels like the NFL is selectively choosing which games to postpone and which games they shouldn’t postpone.
The Covid situation is only getting worse, not better. And it is hard to fathom how the NFL can navigate the final weeks of the regular season and the playoffs without more disruption. At this point of the year, all teams are banged up. Adding outbreaks of Covid on top of that is a recipe for trouble.
Sometimes an NFL season gets decided by teams’ health down the stretch. The winner this year could literally be the last team standing. How the NFL and the franchises now deal with this is the biggest question going forward. It could play a decisive role in determining who gets their hands on the Lombardi Trophy.
TAYYIB ABU
CFB/NFL ANALYST
Tayyib is an avid NFL fan and, as a follower of the detroit lions, is a permanent resident in the honolulu blue heartbreak hotel. writing football articles since 2019, tayyib loves everything about the sport except that wins are not a qb stat. follow him on twitter @TayyibABU1