nfl week 16: four things to keep an eye on

By Tayyib Abu

Christmas has come early for NFL fans, as Week 16 takes place over three days. With a packed slate on Christmas Eve, three games on Christmas Day, and one more on Boxing Day, it is a massive weekend. Here are four things to watch:

Is The Patriot Way Over?

Sky Sports

At 7-7, the New England Patriots are alive in the AFC playoff chase. However, the Patriots are 2-3 since the bye week, and they lost chaotically last Sunday. New England has three games left, Buffalo and Miami await, and today they welcome the red-hot Cincinnati Bengals to Gilette Stadium. New England could well finish the season with three straight defeats and end up 7-10. Worryingly, head coach Bill Belichick has a myriad of problems to solve ahead of this three-game gauntlet. 

Offensively, the Patriots are in the dark ages; the brains trust of Matt Patricia, Joe Judge, and Mac Jones has failed to ignite the New England offense. Football Outsiders rank the Patriots 25th in offensive DVOA; they are 24th in offensive EPA per play and 29th in 3rd down conversion rate. Mac Jones is 32nd in QBR amongst all quarterbacks. Every metric allied with game film confirms one thing; the Patriots are a poorly coached offense stuck playing football from 25 years ago. 

And then there is the ill-discipline and mixed messages. The Patriots are 10th overall for most penalties conceded, and they are an astonishing 4th in terms of offensive penalties committed. Belichick’s teams do not beat themselves, yet here they are, an ill-disciplined, poorly prepared team. 

And now they host the Bengals, arguably the most in-form team in the AFC. Zac Taylor’s side has not lost since Halloween, averaging 26 points per game. The Patriots average 21 points per game. Cincinnati’s offense is also humming; since Week 9, Football Outsiders rank them 1st in offensive DVOA. Joe Burrow is playing at an MVP level, and Lou Anurumo’s defense is monstrous against the run. Opponents are averaging 4.0 yards per carry against the Bengals. The Patriots want to run the ball. However, their offensive line is a mediocre run-blocking unit. 

And finally, the Patriots’ aura is slipping. The Bengals will travel to Massachusetts expecting a win. The once efficient, ruthless Patriots are a rabble, and the Bengals may underline the end of the Patriot Way.

More Trouble For Tennessee?

Five weeks ago, the Tennessee Titans dominated the Green Bay Packers in a Thursday Night Football win. Following that big victory, the Titans have lost four straight and now find themselves entangled with the Jacksonville Jaguars for the AFC South title. Everything has gone wrong for the Titans over the last four weeks; owner Amy Adams Strunk fired GM Jon Robinson, offensive coordinator Todd Downing was arrested on DUI charges, and Ryan Tannehill is now out for the foreseeable future.

The wheels have fallen off for Tennessee, and today they take on a valiant, slowly improving Houston Texans team. While the Texans are the worst team in the NFL, no one can deny their tenacity and grit. Be in no doubt, the Texans will fancy this divisional matchup. They have nothing to lose, and their offense has come to life in the last two weeks. Conversely, the Titans have everything to lose; a once unassailable division lead is gone, and the surging Jaguars are chasing Tennessee down. Can Mike Vrabel use all his experience, moxie, and toughness to steady the ship? The Titans’ season depends on it.

A Poignant Occasion

NFL.com

The Saturday slate closes with a game between the 6-8 Pittsburgh Steelers, and the 6-8 Las Vegas Raiders. On paper, it does not feel like the most exciting game, but it will be a poignant game. The matchup will mark the 50th anniversary of the Immaculate Reception. Yes, long before the Helmet Catch, Philly Special, and 59 Wrazer, the Immaculate Reception was defining play of NFL football. On a cold December night at old Three Rivers Stadium, the Pittsburgh Steelers battled the then-Oakland Raiders in an AFC Divisional Playoff game. In the late stages, Steeler quarterback Terry Bradshaw hurled a ball downfield, only for John Fuqua and Raiders safety Jack Tatum to crash into the ball. It looked like an incomplete pass before flying fullback Franco Harris scooped the ball away from the ground and ran in for the touchdown. 

This Saturday night was supposed to commemorate the game and the indelible mark it left on the NFL. Sadly, Franco Harris passed away earlier this week. The Hall of Famer and Super Bowl MVP would be live at Acrisure Field to see his Steeler jersey retired. It is heartbreaking to know he will not be there. Nevertheless, the Pittsburgh Steelers fans will show their appreciation. They are a parochial community, and they love their former champions. And while the game may not feature huge stakes, if the Steelers and Raiders play with the spirit and intensity as their forebearers did 50 years ago, fans could be in for a treat. 

And while the NFL hamster wheel culture will carry on, it is essential to reflect on those that came before us. Franco Harris played in an era where player safety was a footnote, yet he helped build the league into a global phenomenon. Rest in peace, Franco Harris.

Is It Time To Bolt Up?

The 8-6 LA Chargers have stealthily moved into a playoff place. Brandon Staley’s team currently occupies the 6th seed in the AFC, and their glide path to a playoff spot looks inviting. The Chargers close Week 16 with a Monday Night Football game against a shell-shocked Indianapolis Colts team before finishing the season with games against the Rams and Broncos. The path to 11-6 is clear for LA; they just need to keep taking care of business. Indianapolis, Denver, and the Rams are three of the worst six offensive units in the league.

Furthermore, the Chargers’ defense has played excellently in their last two wins. With Justin Herbert rebuilding his relationships with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, the offense is gelling at the right time. LA is playing complementary, winning football right now, and if they can avoid a ‘Chargerization,’ LA’s other team will be in the playoffs. It is in their hands, and they are good enough to make it. It might be time to feel confident about the Bolts. 

TAYYIB ABU

CFB/NFL ANALYST

Tayyib is an avid NFL fan and, as a follower of the detroit lions, is a permanent resident in the honolulu blue heartbreak hotel. writing football articles since 2019, tayyib loves everything about the sport except that wins are not a qb stat. follow him on twitter @TayyibABU1

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