nfl week 13: four things to keep an eye on

By Tayyib Abu

The NFL regular season is in its final throes – or should that be THROWS? (sorry not sorry) – and Week 13 features massive games across the slate. Some teams will feel lucky, while others will lament their fortune after this weekend. Here are four things to keep an eye on.

Here Comes Riverboat Ron's Commanders!

The Washington Commanders are the in-form team in the NFC. After falling into a 1-4 hole, the Commanders have clambered their way out to a 7-5 record. Ron Rivera’s side has won three straight games, including a huge Monday Night Football win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Today, Washington will visit the Meadowlands to take on the ailing New York Giants. 

It is a massive game. The Giants are 7-4, clinging onto 3rd place in the NFC East, and the last thing they needed was a red-hot divisional rival arriving in town. Washington’s recent success has come from its defense; the Commanders have surrendered no more than 21 points in a game since Week 4. They can create turnovers and are stout against the run, in particular. Per Football Outsiders, the Commanders are 4th overall in run-defense DVOA. That is a pertinent statistic ahead of this game.

The Giants are a run-first team; Saquon Barkley anchored the run game during the Giants’ early-season win streak. However, in the last two games, Barkley has totaled just 61 rushing yards. In their previous outing, the Giants registered 90 rushing yards with four ball carriers. Right now, New York cannot run the ball. And that suits Washington perfectly. The Commanders’ defensive line has a little bit of everything, with aggressive edges and powerful lane-cloggers. The recipe for success against the Giants is simple; stop the run, force mistakes, and play a clean game. The Commanders are red-hot at the right time and are favorites in this one. Riverboat Ron’s ragtag group is on its way.

Well, He's Back

In its 100-year history, the NFL has had controversies aplenty; whether that was Michael Vick, Ben Roethlisberger, Ray Rice, Deflategate, or anything to do with Dan Snyder, the NFL has seen it. But the Deshaun Watson saga has arguably been the most challenging and contentious controversy. After 700 odd days, Deshaun Watson will return to the field as the Cleveland Browns head to Houston. 

The $230 million man will now need to find a way of focusing on football as the world follows his every move. Once dubbed by Dabo Sweeney as a Michael Jordan-type prospect, Watson now has to restart his career under heavy scrutiny. Many fans and analysts believe that Watson’s suspension was a lenient punishment. Considering Colin Kaepernick’s plight after protesting racial injustice, it seems wrong for Watson to be back. Never mind pocketing $230 million from Browns owner Jimmy Haslam. 

Watson’s return feels premature and sends the wrong message to the world. Yet here we are, in a situation the NFL tried to ignore until it disappeared. But it never did. And now the NFL and Watson must face the music.

Strength Meets Strength

The Miami Dolphins are the 6th best-scoring offense in the NFL. The San Francisco 49ers are the stingiest defense in the NFL. It is a true strength-on-strength matchup. Mix in the added twist of Mike McDaniel taking on Kyle Shanahan, and this matchup is a blockbuster. 

The Dolphins are an electrifying offense; Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are the best 1-2 wide receiver corps in the game. Both are on course to shatter the 1000-yard receiving mark, and both are in the top bracket regarding WR gravity. Add Mike Gesicki, Durham Smythe, River Kraykraft, and Alec Ingold, and the Dolphins might be the most loaded offense in the NFL. They are 3rd overall in offensive EPA and 2nd overall in offensive DVOA. Mike McDaniel has built a 49er-like offense for Tua Tagovailoa and then placed Tagovailoa in a Crimson Tide-style offense from a talent perspective. Add the wide zone 49er run game and a bevy of talented backs, and the Dolphins look unstoppable…

It is no surprise that they have scored at least 30 points in their last four games. Tagovailoa’s quick release and accuracy are complementing the talent around him. The former Alabama quarterback leads the NFL in completions in the intermediate area of the field. The Dolphins beat teams by getting playmakers into space and winning matchups against linebackers and safeties. In the Next Gen Stats era, passes classed as intermediate throws have generated the most EPA in the league. With teams terrified of getting gashed in the deep third and playing less man coverage against Miami, Waddle and Hill are torching the intermediate areas. The Dolphins have had 29 open throws in the intermediate zone. The next best is 16. In total, Miami has created 719 yards on throws between 10-19 air yards. That is nearly double that of the team ranked second. 

However, the McDaniel scheme now meets its maker in the San Francisco 49ers. Since 2018, the 49ers have allowed the fewest completions in intermediate areas. Moreover, they have surrendered the worst completion rate and passer rating on throws targeting midfield. The 49ers’ defense is built to stop the Dolphins’ offense. Furthermore, Miami may be without two starting offensive linemen. The 49ers are 11th overall in pass rush win rate and are formidable up front. Linebacker Fred Warner is the best coverage backer in football, and Talanoa Hufanga is a do-it-all wild man in the backfield. This tough defense also has not given up a second-half point in its last three games. Coordinator Demeco Ryans is brilliantly adjusting and evolving his game plan. San Francisco is the 5th ranked defense per DVOA. 

It is a true strength-on-strength matchup.

What Next For The NFC South?

No one in the NFC South has a winning record. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead the way with a 5-6 record, with the Falcons, Panthers, and Saints tucked behind. The Buccaneers round the weekend out with a Monday Night Football matchup against the New Orleans Saints, while the Falcons battle Pittsburgh, and Carolina are on the bye week. 

The Saints beat the Bucs in Florida last season, and a win will close this division up even more. A Tampa win will certainly eliminate New Orleans from contention. Where it gets complicated is how Atlanta and Carolina get on. The Falcons are a complete anomaly; brilliant one week, bizarre the next, likewise for the Carolina Panthers. It doesn’t feel easy to predict how this division will shake out. But with the inconsistencies and erratic swings in form, it feels like it will go down to the wire.

TAYYIB ABU

CFB/NFL ANALYST

Tayyib is an avid NFL fan and, as a follower of the detroit lions, is a permanent resident in the honolulu blue heartbreak hotel. writing football articles since 2019, tayyib loves everything about the sport except that wins are not a qb stat. follow him on twitter @TayyibABU1

5/5