nfl week 12: four things to keep an eye on
By Tayyib Abu
Thanksgiving has come and gone. We’ve feasted on Turkey and some chaotic football, and now we get to gorge like kings as another packed Sunday slate of games round out Thanksgiving week.
Divisional title races are hotting up, and several teams are making moves in the wildcard races. It promises to be another intense week of dramatic football, which may have significant implications going forward.
Here are four things to watch in Week 12 of the new season…
The Eagles Are Starting To Take Flight
Whisper it quietly, but the Philadelphia Eagles are starting to gather some momentum. The Eagles are on a two-game win streak, hauling them into contention for the NFC’s seventh playoff spot. Week 12 started perfectly for the Eagles as the Cowboys lost on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys’ wobble may offer Philly an outside shot at the divisional title. The good news continued for Eagles fans on Thursday night; after gorging on turkey and sweet potato, Eagles fans would’ve looked at their schedule and saw that the New York Giants are coming to the City of Brotherly Love.
The Giants lost in wimpish fashion on Monday night in Tampa. The end seems nigh for head coach Joe Judge and GM Dave Gettleman. A divisional matchup should bring intensity and more fight; however, the Giants are a terrible team. They are not going anywhere in 2021.
On the other hand, the Eagles brutally dominated the Saints, and the key to the Eagles’ sudden surge is a tremendous offensive line playing at an extraordinary level. Per ESPN, the Eagles offensive line is second in run-blocking success. Football outsiders rank the unit seventh in adjusted line yards. Therefore it is no surprise that the Eagles have rushed for over 200 yards in three of their last four games. Considering that the Eagles don’t possess a true superstar runner, it is a heck of an achievement for Philadelphia.
The matchup against the Giants offers Philadelphia another chance to steamroller the opposing defense. Rookie Landon Dickerson deserves special mention as he is shining in the trenches. The big bully from Alabama is mauling opponents in the run game. The Giants are ranked 31st in run defense, and they don’t enjoy the physical element of defending. The Eagles’ offensive line could maul the Giants into submission.
Philly’s secondary is playing at a high level as well. Former All-Pro corner Darius Slay is producing the form that made him a star in Detroit under Jim Caldwell before Matt Patricia told him where to go. The Giants fired Jason Garrett this week, and time will only tell if that is a positive move. The Giants’ pass offense is atrocious, despite the heavy investments made in the skill positions. One area New York could exploit is the Eagles’ non-clinical pass rush. Philly pressured Trevor Siemian last week, but they’ve not registered a sack in the previous two games.
Divisional games are seldom straightforward. Giants vs. Eagles is one of the biggest rivalries in the NFL. If Philadelphia can cap Thanksgiving week by winning over their local rivals, other teams might be registering a flying Eagle on the radars.
The Mike Vrabel Factor
Contrary to popular belief, Mike Vrabel is not a graduate of the Bill Belichick coaching tree. Vrabel did play for Belichick as the Patriots’ dynasty took shape in the early 21st century. Vrabel actually cut his teeth at Ohio State before entering the NFL as part of the Houston Texans’ coaching staff. Consequently, Vrabel is an outlier. Belichick certainly shaped Vrabel’s career as a player, but the former linebacker prides himself on enjoying success outside of Foxborough.
Vrabel dived into the deep end in 2018 as he took on the head coach’s job in Tennessee. In the intervening time, Vrabel’s potent mix of aggressiveness, defiance, and inspirational leadership has propelled the Titans to new levels in the AFC. After 11 weeks, the Titans are 8-3, but they are reeling. An ugly defeat at the hands of the Texans allied with a rash of significant injuries has hindered Tennessee’s playoff push. Now Vrabel leads his underhanded squad back to New England, home to some of his biggest wins, and Vrabel must harness everything to come away with the win.
The Patriots are hitting their stride at the perfect time. Belichick’s defense is back to its very best, and offensively Mac Jones is proving to be a mature game-manager. All of that could cause Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill more problems. The former Dolphin threw multiple interceptions as he toiled without the play-action passing game that Derrick Henry’s presence creates.
Wideouts AJ Brown and Julio Jones are out of the game, tight end Geoff Swaim has battled concussion protocol all week, and linebackers Rashaan Evans and David Long are out. That is a lot of adversity for any coach to deal with ahead of a critical game.
Fortunately for Vrabel, he is used to battling adversity in Tennessee. Vrabel and his team have overcome many challenging hurdles, whether it was a Covid outbreak, the Mariota experience, John Harbaugh, or a pesky Colts side. Moreover, Vrabel won’t fear Belichick or the Patriots. The Titans famously ended Tom Brady’s tenure in New England in the playoffs a few years ago, and Tennessee will roll into Massachusetts hungry to do damage.
Despite their 8-3 status, the Titans are the underdogs in most pundits’ eyes. That should suit a team that enjoys flipping the script. Much is made of a coach’s tactical acumen, scheming, and clock management; no one ever talks about a coach’s leadership skills, his ability to inspire and motivate.
The Titans are a wounded bull, and they are visiting a team on the up. Many teams and coaches would wilt before the game in the face of that adversity. Mike Vrabel will ensure that doesn’t happen; his Titans team will want to make it a real fight, and their record against teams with winning records is astounding. Do not count the Titans out just yet.
The Colts Are Starting to Gallop
Peyton Manning once opined that Indianapolis was a car-racing town. There was an element of truth in Manning’s statement as Indycar racing is a religion in Indiana. The Indycar championship is well into its offseason now. Therefore it makes total sense that the Colts have unleashed an 800 horsepower weapon on the rest of the NFL. Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is rapidly entering the MVP race after rampaging for five touchdowns against the Buffalo Bills last week.
Taylor’s slashing running style, coupled with his speed, power, and acceleration, makes him impossible to stop. Last week, Taylor generated a +10.8 EPA on 32 carries. That is the high mark for all running backs in 2021. Moreover, Taylor has 322 rush yards over expected; he is the only runner above 200 in that metric. Taylor’s brutal running has quickly dragged the Colts into contention in the wide-open AFC.
Head coach Frank Reich is engineering a ferocious run game behind his brilliant offensive line. Guard Quenton Nelson cleared gaping craters in the run game, and Taylor brilliantly took advantage.
The Indianapolis defense executed their game plan brilliantly last week. Josh Allen looked like a rookie as the Colts confused Buffalo’s quarterback with innovative defensive coverages and a relentless pass rush.
Tom Brady reacquaints himself with his former rivals this week as the Colts battle the Bucs. Tampa got back to winning ways as they cruised past a woeful Giants side. The Bucs are starting to get healthy, and Brady is a master at dissecting disguised coverages. His experience and knowledge of defensive formations allow him to locate the soft spots in zone coverages. The key to silencing Brady is the pass rush. The Colts must stay consistent and remorseless in their approach. Michigan man Kwity Paye is improving every week, and the Colts still have DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart to wreak havoc in the trenches.
Tampa defensive coordinator Todd Bowles loves to send pressure after the quarterback, and he will prime his defense to match Indianapolis’ physicality up front. Teams have opted to defend Taylor by leaving a light tackle box. He ranks 25th in the number of eight-man boxes he’s faced in 2021. Tampa Bay will change that on Sunday. If Taylor and the Colts’ offensive line can rumble and win the battle of the trenches, the Colts will announce themselves in the AFC.
The AFC North Becomes A Knockout
Rivalries define sports. Whether it’s Michigan and Ohio State, or Red Sox vs. Yankees, they capture the imagination of fans worldwide. Cleveland and Baltimore may not be the most famous rivalry in the NFL, but it might be the most passion-filled with arguably the most extraordinary backstory.
The Ravens and Browns face off this week in the first of their season series. Both teams picked up gritty, if ugly, wins over the Bears and Lions in Week 11. The Ravens escaped the Windy City with a win as they managed to find a way without Lamar Jackson.
Baker Mayfield threw two ugly interceptions as the Browns scratched a miserable win over the Detroit Lions. Cleveland’s season is on the line over the next three weeks. They play Baltimore, go on a bye week, and return to play Baltimore again. The following two games could define Kevin Stefanski, Baker Mayfield, and the 2021 Cleveland Browns.
The Lions managed to corral Nick Chubb, and the Ravens will back themselves to contain Chubb through their trademark physicality. Despite suffering so many injuries throughout the season, the Ravens’ defense still follows the exact blueprint. And you can guarantee that Wink Martindale will bring the staple Cover 0 blitz. Mayfield must not panic and decide to bail when pressured. Blitzing defenses leave holes open in the backfield, and calm quarterbacks take advantage. Mayfield hasn’t done that in his career thus far, and he must do it in the next two games.
The Ravens are 7-3 in the AFC North. A sweep of the Browns will almost certainly end Cleveland’s chances of a divisional title. Lamar Jackson enjoyed one of his best games last season as the Ravens edged the Browns in a Monday night thriller.
It feels like the first mini playoff fame in the NFL, and it is set up perfectly as these two franchises lock horns. It’s high time in the AFC North.
TAYYIB ABU
CFB/NFL ANALYST
Tayyib is an avid NFL fan and, as a follower of the detroit lions, is a permanent resident in the honolulu blue heartbreak hotel. writing football articles since 2019, tayyib loves everything about the sport except that wins are not a qb stat. follow him on twitter @TayyibABU1