WEEK 11 NFL REDZONE PICKS
Steve Moore breaks down the betting angles for the early games in week eleven.
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Rain Stops (Offensive) Play
The Browns game against the Texans was absolutely destroyed by the weather and there are rumours of similar conditions for the game against the Eagles this week.
That might be the best chance the Eagles have of winning this game (or to put it frankly, any NFC East team winning out of the division right now!). However, as we saw last week, the thing the weather changes more than anything is the score…
There was 17 points in that Texans game last week, or there would have been 24 if Chubb had ran into the endzone at the end. Either way, that is way below the total points line. Taking Under 45.5 (11/10 with various) seems like a great bet.
It was only that awful weather, allied with Nick Chubb’s turning down of a touchdown, that allowed the Texans to cover the spread for the second time all season. Back in the sunnier climate of south Texas, they won’t have that to fall back on against the Pats.
Being under .500 a week before Thanksgiving may well be a new experience for the Patriots this millennium, but there is no way that Bill Belichick will fold on this season. Unlike the Texans, who seem more dazed and confused than a Hold-em player who has drawn 7/2 off-suit three times in a row.
Expect an ugly game, but take the Pats -2.5 (20/21 with Bet365) to cover easily.
AFC (Imitation) Game
Both of these two sides look like imitations of their 2019 selves. Still both decent sides, but Lamar and the Ravens offense look like they can be game planned against as opposed to the unstoppable force they seemed 12 months ago.
Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill no longer looks like a top five quarterback and Derrick Henry has gone from hacking off an 80-yard touchdown every game to just racking up 80 yards per game.
Those drop-offs are the reason they have gone from AFC powerhouses to just AFC wild-card contenders. The play-off game last year was a 16 point win by the Titans and there is no way that the Titans regression is three touchdowns worse than the Ravens.
Take the Titans +3.5 (5/4 with various)
Burrow Gets A Dub
For all the talk of Alex Smith winning by virtue of just taking the field this year, what has been lost is that, having got on the field, he has pretty much looked like Alex Smith has any time in the last ten years.
That means Washington are able to stay competitive as long as their defense can play well enough that they only need 20 points a game. Unfortunately this is 2020 and against the Lions they proved that they are only average for, well, being carved up.
Talking about being competitive, outside of playing the two AFC North powerhouses, that’s precisely what the Bengals have been all year.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense should have enough to break open the Washington defense and, as underdogs, the Bengals (11/10 with various) are excellent value to flat out win the game.
A Welshman exiled in Luton, Steve Moore has been a Buccaneers fan ever since he thought a stadium with a pirate ship was cool (he was only 9 at the time!).
Steve has also hosted podcasts on both the NFL and British Universities football and was the statistician for 2008 College Bowl finalists, Staffordshire Stallions