WEEK 12 NFL REDZONE PICKS
Steve Moore breaks down the betting angles for the early games in week twelve.
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Don't Expect The Sweep
While a lot of post Thanksgiving eyes will be on the Chiefs-Bucs game in the later slate as ‘Game of the Week’, the AFC South matchup between the two 7-3 teams heading the division has much more impact on the state of the postseason fate of both teams.
At half-time of their matchup a couple of weeks ago, the Titans had the lead. The Colts adjusted and destroyed them 21-0 in the second half. That tells more of a story than the Colts being a better team though.
What it proves is that these two are fully battle-hardened teams who can both gameplan their way past each other, meaning for either to sweep the other takes something pretty special.
On top of that there is one X-Factor difference in this one. DeForest Buckner is on the Covid list. Without him, this Colts defense is a completely different proposition. Expect the Titans (8/5 with Unibet) to take the lead in the AFC North by Monday morning.
Herbert's Field Day
Arizona scored 32, Seattle scored 34, the Titans scored 42 and the Rams scored 32. This is not your Buffalo defense of old, and Justin Herbert is licking his lips.
Meanwhile, the stats show that for all that Stefon Diggs adds the extra dimension to the Bills offense, when they are without John Brown, as they are this week, then Kyle Allen looks half the quarterback. In what is sure to be a shoot-out, that is not going to fly.
There is only one reason the Chargers are not going to win this matchup. They are the Chargers and will find a way to lose. Expect them to cover the Chargers +4.5 (9/10 with Betfair) line but lose the game. Probably on a special teams foul-up.
Napoleon Dynamite Offense
Did you remember that Mike ‘Napoleon Dynamite’ Glennon was still in the league? I had certainly forgot until the Jake Luton experiment ended this week and the Jags ‘voted for Glennon’.
Glennon is going to have to produce one of his best performances to even come close to the day that Baker Mayfield should have against the abject Jaguars defense.
However, the Browns themselves are missing Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, the only two real game-changing players on the Browns defense.
Without them or any footage of Mike Glennon, allied with the fact that the one thing that the Jags do have are offensive weapons like James Robinson and DJ Chark, it may be a couple of weeks before Glennon goes the way of Luton.
Taking the Over 48.5 (10/11 with various) might therefore be a tasty ploy.
The No Red Zone Game
The injury to Joe Burrow has made Bengals games even less watchable than they were last year, when they were earning the right to get him in the first place.
Meanwhile, the New York Giants have only scored more than 27 points once all season. As a result, this might be a game that even Giants fans might just put on RedZone only. Which would be fine, if there was a high chance that nobody will actually get into the RedZone in this one!
Buying a couple of points to get a line of Under 46.5 (7/10 with 888 & Unibet) means that even if the Giants hit that 27 point mark, Brandon Allen will have to score 20 and that seems a stretch.
Accumulator: Titans Money Line, Chargers +4.5, Browns @ Jaguars Over 48.5, Giants @ Bengals Under 46.5.
A Welshman exiled in Luton, Steve Moore has been a Buccaneers fan ever since he thought a stadium with a pirate ship was cool (he was only 9 at the time!).
Steve has also hosted podcasts on both the NFL and British Universities football and was the statistician for 2008 College Bowl finalists, Staffordshire Stallions