WEEK 13 NFL REDZONE PICKS
There are seven game in the early window this week to follow on RedZone. Steve Moore breaks down the betting angles for the early games in week three.
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Running Down To Nashville
Two of the best running backs in the league face off in Tennessee as Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb have helped the Browns and the Titans to 8-3 records and in great position to make the playoffs.
Whilst Myles Garrett is expected to be back, it shouldn’t matter seeing as Henry is on pace to actually exceed his incredible mark from last season.
Meanwhile, while most people were expecting the Titans offense to drop off, but it’s the defense that has regressed to 28th in efficiency in the league.
While Henry is always one hole away from that 80-yard run that will destroy any over/under line, the Browns should want to keep that Tennessee offense off the field – and ride Nick Chubb in doing so.
Both should beat their respective rushing yards line; Henry over 99.5 yards (5/6 with Skybet), Chubb over 83.5 yards (10/11 with Betfair and Paddy Power)
Riding The Taysom Hill
For all the jokes about neither side fielding a quarterback in the Saints-Broncos game last week, New Orleans are still looking like an NFC powerhouse.
In fact, they have quite possibly the only game-winning defense in the NFL. While you can ignore the Broncos game, the Saints have also conceded no more than 14 points in the three consecutive games before that.
This includes giving up just nine points to the Falcons a fortnight ago. Just like when Teddy Bridgewater stepped in last year, the Saints are so good that it frankly doesn’t matter who is under center, they remain one of the best teams in the NFL.
Raheem Morris’ 4-2 record with the Falcons has skewed the line for this one. Saints -2.5 (10/11 with Betfair and Paddy Power) is a line that should only be acceptable against the likes of the Chiefs and the Steelers.
oThe Saints might have the only game-changing defense, but Over in Indianapolis they may have the biggest game-changing DEFENDER outside of Aaron Donald. Against the Titans last week, the Colts looked like a sub-par team without DeForest Buckner.
Recency bias has meant that suddenly the line for the Texans game this week is Colts -3.5 (19/20 with various). While DeShaun Watson still looks like a top 5 QB, that seems like a small margin of victory. That’s even before we get to the fact that the two of the best Texans not named Watson – Bradley Roby & Will Fuller – are now out for the year.
As a result, feel very comfortable that the Colts will cover, and with change to spare.
The most shocking result of this entire season may well have been the Raiders 43-6 pounding by the Atlanta Falcons last week. Even now it makes very little sense as to why it happened.
When that happens, the best thing to do is throw it out and ignore it as a one off.
Before that result, the idea that the Raiders could be favoured over the Jets by barely a touchdown is frankly crazy. Take the Raiders -7.5 (10/11 with various) and be thankful for it.
Treble: Saints -2.5, Colts -3.5, Raiders -7.5
Singles: Derrick Henry Over 99.5 rushing yards, Nick Chubb Over 83.5 yards
A Welshman exiled in Luton, Steve Moore has been a Buccaneers fan ever since he thought a stadium with a pirate ship was cool (he was only 9 at the time!).
Steve has also hosted podcasts on both the NFL and British Universities football and was the statistician for 2008 College Bowl finalists, Staffordshire Stallions