WEEK 10 NFL REDZONE PICKS
Just five games in the early slot but Steve Moore breaks down the betting angles for the early games in week ten.
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Early Bucs Struggles
One of the biggest shocks of Week 9 was the sheer destruction of the Brady Bucs by the New Orleans Saints. They were 14-0 down by the end of the first quarter and then conceded another 17 before half-time.
If the Buccaneers can’t beat the Panthers early this Sunday then, with the Rams and Chiefs up in the next two games and with two more games against a resurgent Atlanta Falcons led by a Raheem Morris who will be out for revenge, there is no guaranteed that the Bucs end up with a winning record.
With McCaffrey out, I am not confident enough to predict that to happen to start the Bucs slide. However, that first half against the Saints showed up a deeper issue with Bruce Arians’ side.
The first three weeks, the Buccaneers offense impressed early and then fell further and further backwards as games wore on. Since then, the Bucs have led after the first quarter just once (against the Bears in a game they lost). The script has flipped and the Buccaneers have started slower than a sloth with a hangover.
Matt Rhule and the Panthers have been competitive all year with one exception; week two against the Bucs when they were 21-0 down by half-time. Matt Rhule will be desperate not to let that happen again and the Panthers leading after the 1st quarter (9/4 with 888.com & Unibet) is a very good outside play.
Rodgers Goes Ballistic
Aaron Rodgers simply doesn’t need receivers. They would obviously help but even with the receiving corps they have, the Packers own the second-most efficient offense in the league.
Giving them a mini-bye going into a game against the frankly abysmal Jaguars defense is just unfair. Five time this year they have scored at least 34 points and they also put up 30 points in one of the three times they have fallen shy of that.
That means that if we take 34 points as the base-line, Jake Luton and the Jaguars only need 16 to cover the Over 49.5 (20/21 with bet365) total points line. Expect Luton to regress to the mean slightly, but it will take more than one week for enough film to completely nullify him.
Fit-Again Eagles Take Flight
The Eagles offensive line is getting healthier, Wentz now has more receiving threats than he has all year and they have had the bye to work out who they are.
Deal with the Giants and they can start to pull away with the division and be at .500 with a three game winning streak. They already beat the Giants once, with Boston Scott as the premier running back and Richard Rodgers as leading receiver.
Philly will put a statement together to control this sorry division and easily cover the Eagles -3.5 (Evens with Skybet) line.
Baker Will Cook
It has been mentioned in this column before that you can judge how Baker Mayfield will play based purely on whether he is against a good defense or not.
Baker against the Texans, who are so bad that Bradley Roby apparently refused to travel with the team over a dispute about coverage schemes, whilst also coming off a bye, seems manna from heaven.
Jake Luton may not have tied the game against the Texans because of missing the two point conversion. He did however cover the spread, making the Texans 1-7 against it this season. With the spread being Browns -3.5 (21/20 with SkyBet), that should become 1-8.
TIPS REVIEW:
Treble: Jaguars @ Packers Over 49.5 points, Eagles -3.5 and Browns -3.5
Other Single: Panthers to win the 1st quarter
Steve Moore
NFL BETTING ANALYST
A Welshman exiled in Luton, Steve Moore has been a Buccaneers fan ever since he thought a stadium with a pirate ship was cool (he was only 9 at the time!).
Steve has also hosted podcasts on both the NFL and British Universities football and was the statistician for 2008 College Bowl finalists, Staffordshire Stallions