NFL: Predicting the Playoff Picture in the AFC
By Julian Cordova
The start of the 2024 NFL season is right around the corner. In the next 18 weeks, we will experience 32 teams duke it out for a chance at the Lombardi trophy. But to even have a shot at the big game in New Orleans, you need to make the playoffs. A quick refresher:
There are 32 teams in the NFL; 16 in both conferences. Of these 32 teams, only 14 make the playoffs, 7 from each conference. To make the playoffs you need to do the following:
1. Win your division
Or
2. Have a top 3 record among the 12 teams that did not win their division
So how will the playoffs end up looking in 2025? Let’s take a look at how the AFC may play out this year in my predictions.
The Conference Winner
(1) Kansas City Chiefs: 12-5 (4-2)
The Chiefs are the top dog of the NFL until someone shows otherwise. After last year, a down year from a passing standpoint from Mahomes and his WRs, the Chiefs invested in a speed demon from the desert in Hollywood Brown. They also spent a first-round pick on the fastest combine player of all time, Texas WR Xavier Worthy. Perhaps you can expect some of that magic from 2018/19 Mahomes to return this year. With the 1 seed, the Chiefs also receive a bye week during the Wildcard round.
The Division Winners
(2) New York Jets: 11-6 (4-2)
Marcus Whitman from That Franchise Guy said it best about this Jets team. It’s like a star destroyer built on wooden stilts. From top to bottom, this roster is stacked, and the only thing really in their way is health. This was a top 5 defense last year, and the offense is hand-crafted for Rodgers to excel. The only question is, do these wooden stilts hold? If so, the Jets are legitimate SB contenders.
(3) Cincinnati Bengals: 11-6 (3-3)
The return of Joe ‘Brrr’ Burrow is arguably the biggest “addition” any team made this off-season. Disrespect has run rampant with Burreaux, and the common man has seemingly forgotten that this is a top 2/3 QB that can take a 9-8 team to much more glorious heights. It’ll be a close race, but I do have Cincinnati taking the AFC North.
(4) Houston Texans: 10-7 (3-3)
I do think expectations are being raised a little too high for the Texans. I know we saw them play well, especially for a young team, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re going to get way better. There were a few defensive pieces that departed this off-season. Offensively, I want to see more of Stroud. He is nowhere near a finished product yet, which could mean good or bad things. From my point of view, he showed a lot of extremely promising things last year. I just need to see another year of clear progression before the ceiling of this team gets lifted to SB contenders.
The Wildcards
(5) Miami Dolphins: 10-7 (3-3)
The Dolphins had quite an interesting off-season. They paid their QB a lot, some would argue too much, which led to them losing a couple of key members of the team: Christian Wilkins and Robert Hunt. Regardless of that, this is a high-speed offense that is just really tough to keep up with until teams figure out how to deal with whatever new look Mike McDaniel is masterminding. Their defense may also end up being slightly improved, switching to the highly sought-after Macdonald scheme by bringing in Anthony Weaver. A lot of upside here, but the roster is weaker than last year.
(6) Baltimore Ravens: 10-7 (3-3)
While the addition of Derrick Henry is a big acquisition and should make for a scary run game, there were a lot of losses for Baltimore this year. The big one is Mike Macdonald. As good as Lamar and the offense was last year, the defense was good enough that 1/4 of the league decided they wanted some of it. So the Ravens are left with young coach Zach Orr. Assuming he can even replicate somewhat of the defense Macdonald coached last year, we’ll see the Flock in the playoffs, but narrowly losing the division to Cincinnati in these predictions.
(7) Cleveland Browns: 9-8 (3-3)
The Browns are such a unique team. Their roster has a legit argument to be the best roster in the entire league. However, there are still a lot of things holding them back. Firstly, I do believe people are starting to overrate Kevin Stefanski a bit. He’s a good HC but I think people are giving him a little bit too much credit when it comes to really elevating this team to contender status. Deshaun Watson is a total wildcard who started to look ok last year before he got hurt. Nick Chubb is coming off a major injury. Their OL is gonna take a step down with the departure of Bill Callahan and the regression of Joel Bitonio. The defense shouldn’t have many questions, but that’s a lot of asterisks to add to the Browns to put them higher than this.
Just Missed Out
(8) Buffalo Bills: 9-8 (4-2)
(9) Jacksonville Jaguars: 9-8 (3-3)
(10) Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-8 (3-3)
(11) Indianapolis Colts: 9-8 (3-3)
So with the top 7 teams decided, let’s take a quick look at what the AFC playoffs would look like.
Wildcard Round
(7) CLE Browns @ (2) NY Jets
(6) BAL Ravens @ (3) CIN Bengals
(5) MIA Dolphins @ (4) HOU Texans
In this scenario, where a 9-win Browns team gets the tiebreakers to go their way and slip into the playoffs, I believe they fall to the Jets who will be hosting their first playoff game in 14 years.
Ravens vs. Bengals should be a fantastic game. I’ll give the nod to the home team.
The Dolphins nearly beat the Chiefs last year in Arrowhead, but the weather was so intense especially for Miami which has issues in cold weather games, that they fell just short. Against a younger Texans team, give me Miami on the road.
Divisional Round
(5) MIA Dolphins @ (1) KC Chiefs
(3) CIN Bengals @ (2) NY Jets
Shame that the Dolphins win a playoff game only to find themselves in the same situation as last year. Life is cruel. I’m taking KC.
As good as this Jets team could/should be, I don’t trust the team to stay healthy the entire season and postseason. A playoff win is a lot for this franchise, but the Bengals have been to the big game.
AFC Championship
(3) CIN Bengals @ (1) KC Chiefs
The Bengals have proven to be the only team in the AFC that can get past the Chiefs these last 5 years. Be that as it may, in Kansas City, with the opportunity to complete something historic, I’ll take the Chiefs to reach their 5th Super Bowl in 6 years, in an attempt to win their 5th Lombardi (4th in 6 years).
Make sure to read my NFC predictions to see who the Chiefs will be playing and if I’m predicting them to win or not.
Thanks for reading!