NFL Draft Mailbag: Caleb Downs, trench value, and more

By Jack Brentnall

Another week, another NFL Draft mailbag. This time around, I am answering questions on Caleb Downs’ draft range, position groups to watch at the all-star events, and some of the prospects I am highest on in this class.

What is Caleb Downs’ realistic ceiling and floor based on need and BPA?

I think the ceiling is probably the Cardinals at No. 3. That might feel early for a safety, but in a class that lacks true blue-chip talent at premium positions, and where trade back opportunities could be limited, taking a player with such a clean and translatable projection makes a lot of sense.

As for the floor, that is always tricky with non-premium positions. Still, I struggle to see him getting past the Bengals, particularly if both Rueben Bain and David Bailey are off the board. For a team that badly needs an infusion of defensive talent, it is hard to go wrong with a player as reliable and instinctive as Downs.

What’s the strongest and weakest position groups in this class?

I am torn between wide receiver and linebacker for the strongest group, but I will probably land on receiver. If you had asked me this three months ago, I would have given a very different answer. Several pass catchers took real steps forward during the 2025 season, which has given me confidence that this is another strong receiver crop.

There are four receivers I would feel very comfortable leaving the first round with, and there are not many other positions where you can say that. Carnell Tate and Makai Lemon both look like high-level NFL prospects, while Jordyn Tyson, assuming the medicals check out, is not far behind. The growth of KC Concepcion at Texas A&M has also been one of the nicest surprises of the season for me.

As for the weakest group, it is probably quarterback now that Dante Moore has returned to school. I am a big fan of Fernando Mendoza, but once you get past him, the class thins out quickly. I am not especially high on Ty Simpson, and while players like Trinidad Chambliss are fun, I am not convinced they are strong pro prospects.

Who has been your biggest riser since the summer? And the biggest letdown?

If I am limiting this to players I actually watched over the summer, my biggest riser is probably Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey. On his Stanford tape, I saw a freaky athlete who was largely a designated pass rusher with limited versatility and an overreliance on a small number of moves. This season, he has become a much more complete player and shown that he can be trusted as a run defender.

The biggest letdown is probably another edge rusher in Auburn’s Keldric Faulk. I was already a bit lower than consensus on Faulk over the summer, but I expected him to take a step forward in 2025 and push himself into top-10 pick consideration. Instead, I did not see much growth from his 2024 tape, and that leap never really came.

What positions are you most looking forward to seeing at the Shrine and Senior Bowls?

I am going with cornerback here for a couple of reasons. Outside of a handful of names at the top, there is very little consensus once you get into day two. It is also a group with a wide range of playstyles, from physical press corners to smaller, twitchier nickel types.

All-star events are also particularly useful for corners. The one-on-one drills are tilted in favor of the receiver, so if a corner can come out of a week in Frisco or Mobile looking strong in those settings, it usually means they have done something right.

Who are your favourite Day 2 offensive line options?

There are a few day-two linemen I really like. Northwestern tackle Caleb Tiernan is one of them. I think he likely kicks inside to guard at the next level, but regardless of where he lines up, he shows active, independent hands and the foot quickness you want to see. Arizona State right tackle Max Iheanachor is another name to watch. He was one of the few linemen who did a respectable job containing Texas Tech’s edge duo of David Bailey and Romello Height, and he has legitimate NFL-level athleticism.

I am also a fan of Alabama center Parker Brailsford and Iowa center Logan Jones. Both are on the smaller side, but their movement skills stand out and could push them into the back end of day two.

Where’s the real defensive interior value in this class? Round 3?

I am probably more bullish on this defensive tackle class than most. There are two clear Tier 1 players in Clemson’s Peter Woods and Florida’s Caleb Banks, but I also think there is real value late in the first round and early in the second.

Texas Tech’s Lee Hunter is a player I could see rising during the pre-draft process thanks to his combination of quick hands, size, and athleticism. Florida State’s Darrell Jackson is another I am high on. He is not a polished pass rusher yet, but he is a physical outlier who can reset the line of scrimmage against the run. Ohio State’s Kayden McDonald fits a similar mould. People tend to get hung up on the value of a run-stuffing nose tackle, but with where the NFL is heading, those players can still become meaningful value additions.

What WRs do you like for Buffalo on day 1 and day 2?

Given where the Bills are picking, the only receiver likely to be on the board that I would feel truly comfortable taking in the first round is Texas A&M’s KC Concepcion. He may not be the exact archetype Buffalo needs most, but his ability to separate consistently would be a real asset for Josh Allen and that offense.

On day two, I would be targeting a reliable boundary receiver who can beat press and separate outside. That feels like the type of player Allen would benefit from, and the kind of receiver the Bills may have hoped to get when they drafted Keon Coleman. Washington’s Denzel Boston and Tennessee’s Chris Brazzell both stand out to me in that range.

Which players are you significantly higher or lower on than the consensus? Why?

I will take one on each side of the ball. On offense, it is Clemson offensive tackle Blake Miller. On defense, it is UCF edge rusher Malachi Lawrence.

With Miller, I see the size, length, and athleticism teams typically look for at tackle, along with a lot of starting experience. He also shows some pop in his hands and a finisher’s mentality in the run game, which makes me optimistic about his NFL projection. I would be very happy leaving the first round with him.

Lawrence is the type of edge rusher I usually gravitate toward. At 6’4” and 263 pounds with 35-inch arms, he looks like he was built to play the position. He pairs that frame with legitimate burst and fast, violent hands. I think he belongs firmly in the top-50 conversation.

Who are the best prospects from FCS?

I still have a few FCS names to dig into, but right now it is probably a familiar answer. North Dakota State wide receiver Bryce Lance and quarterback Cole Payton both project as day three picks based on what I have seen so far.

Overall, this feels like one of the weaker FCS classes in recent years. Changes at the college level, particularly with NIL and transfer rules, have likely played a role. This could end up being the first year in a long time where we do not see an FCS player taken inside the top 100.

Previously the founder of The Jet Sweep, Jack joined The Touchdown as head of Draft Content in 2024. A Scouting Academy alumnus, Jack has been Covering the NFL Draft since 2020. Follow him on Twitter @Jack_Brentnall.

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NFL Draft Mailbag: Caleb Downs, trench value, and more