NFL DFS: DraftKings Week 17 Strategy
The NFL DFS Week 17 main slate is a massive 15-game fantasy smorgasbord. Traditionally, week 17 is the most random of the season. Teams resting starters, others with little to play for, backups playing to get some action are things we have to contend with as DFS players in the last week of the regular season. First world problems.
This is also the week where correlation is the least important. We have so many games that there will naturally be a lot of high scores so I won’t be focusing on correlating my lineups as I do normally. However, if you are playing small field contests (under 1,000 entrants) then I still think it’s an important weapon in your arsenal. I’m also not so worried about defensive rankings. This is because we have no idea about the personnel who will be playing on defenses this week especially those without any real motivation.
Bearing all this in mind, this isn’t going to be like my regular article. Rather than picking three games to correlate, I’m going to focus on some situations which are intriguing to me and offer value to allow you to pay up elsewhere.
These are my personal opinions on the games and strategies at the time of writing this. I may employ different players and strategies than above if later or further information makes me re-evaluate my opinions.
Cheap Quarterbacks
As I write this, there are two cheap starting QBs that interest me. Firstly, Chad Henne ($5.1k) is the starter for the potent Chiefs offense this week. As well as Mahomes being rested, most people expect Hill and Kelce to be rested too. This opens up opportunities for DeMarcus Robinson ($4.8k), Mecole Hardman ($4.2k), and Byron Pringle ($3.9k). Stacking Henne with two of those receivers is a cheap stack with a very high ceiling. It’s not a cash-game play as the floor is too low but in GPPs, it allows you to spend up elsewhere.
The second situation is at the Rams. They still have something to play for and Jared Goff is out this week. John Wolford ($4.9k) has been named as the starting QB. Cooper Kupp is also out which means that Josh Reynolds ($3.2k) and Van Jefferson ($3k) move into the WR2 & WR3 spot behind Robert Woods ($6.3k). Often teams turn to their running game when the starting QB is out but with so many injuries at that position too, that might not be possible for Sean McVay.
Carolina Panthers
Both Christian McCaffrey and Mike Davis are out for Sunday. That leaves Rodney Smith ($4k) atop of the running back depth chart. He had 7 carries and 2 targets against Washington last week. However, the Panthers have also used Curtis Samuel ($5.3k) in the backfield this season when they’ve been short of bodies so, at his price, I think he has a decent floor with plenty of upside.
The Titans v The Texans
The Titans face the Texans in the dome with their fate in their own hands. This offense scores a lot of fantasy points and we know where the points are going. Derrick Henry ($9.4k) disappointed last week in what was a perfect matchup on paper. Only once this season has he had consecutive, underperforming weeks so I expect him to score well this week. For most teams that would mean the QB and WRs were off-limits but the Titans score so many fantasy points, they’re all still viable even with Henry going off. Corey Davis ($6.2k) has been priced up after some of his recent heroics but I prefer AJ Brown this week at $7.2k. Ryan Tannehill ($7k) is also in play for me here.
DeShaun Watson ($7.7) was not on Wednesday’s injury report so if I feel he can play a full game, he’s in a great spot. After JJ Watt’s rallying call to the Texans team in the press conference last week, I expect them to play hard even though they have nothing to play for (other than personal pride).
If there’s one game I’m likely to stack, this is it.
Minnesota Vikings
They don’t have anything on the line but their passing attack is in such a good matchup at the Lions. If there’s any indication that the starters will play the whole game, I’m stacking Kirk Cousins ($6.3k), Justin Jefferson ($7.6k), and Adam Thielen ($7.4k). Also with the sad news of Dalvin Cook being out due to the death of his father, the Vikings might focus more on their passing game.
I don’t expect this to be a popular stack due to the uncertainty so this might be a great starting point to differentiate your lineup from the field.
Players I Like
Here’s a list of other players I like this week who offer great value:
Andy Dalton, DAL – $5.6k
Melvin Gordon, DEN – $5.7k
Michael Gallup, DAL – $5k
Browns, DST – $2.5k
Mark Ferguson
DFS Analyst
Mark is an experienced DFS player and a member of the UK’s winning Fantasy Ashes team. A jack of all sports but NFL is his first love. You can find him on Twitter @_SMRF