NFL DFS: DraftKings Week 14 Strategy
The NFL DFS week 14 main slate on Draftkings is a 13-game fantasy fest with a nice 7-6 split between early and late games. I like when the games are evenly split like this as it gives you more options for pivots after the early window. Now we’ve reached week 14, it’s worth remembering that this is the time of the season where some teams don’t quite try as hard as previously and random practice squad players produce big games from nowhere. From here on out, I’ll be focusing on games where both teams have something to play for.
So here are the leverage plays and correlated lineups I’m targeting this week. If you want to know more about correlated lineups and leverage plays, please click here.
These are my personal opinions on the games and strategies at the time of writing this. I may employ different players and strategies than above if later or further information makes me re-evaluate my opinions.
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is my favourite game of the day. The Tampa defense has quite a reputation but teams have proven in recent weeks that you can score decent fantasy points against them. There are lots of stacking combos you can play from this game.
With Mattison being down last week, Dalvin Cook ($9.4k) took 87% of the snaps and ended up with 38 touches. Overtime will help with your stats! However, he failed to find the endzone for the second week in a row so he’s due. The Bucs have a great run defense which might tamper his ownership. If so, you want some shares of Dalvin.
Nothing has really changed in the passing game in recent weeks. It goes almost exclusively through Adam Thielen ($7k) and Justin Jefferson ($7.4k). In the last three weeks, they have both scored over 70 fpts.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The running back room is a bit of a mess fantasy-wise. At various points in this season, we’ve thought either Ronald Jones ($6.1k) or Leonard Fournette ($4.5) is the main man. But they’re scoring has been so inconsistent. I’m not that interested in either of them but I can see a path in which either one of them smashes. I just can’t be certain about which one.
The Bucs passing game is almost the polar opposite of the Vikings as there are plenty of pass-catching options for Brady. Mike Evans ($6.6k) and Chris Godwin ($6.3k) have both been consistent but not producing a ceiling game in recent weeks. The x-factor is Antonio Brown ($5.5k) who I feel is always in contention to have a big score. He just hasn’t produced it yet. Add Rob Gronkowski ($4.8k) into the mix with him becoming more involved in the passing game too and it’s anyone’s guess who the best play is.
There are so many combos you can play from this game. My favourite currently is Cousins, Thielen, Jefferson with Brown from the Bucs. However, I expect I’ll have changed my mind many times by Sunday.
Atlanta Falcons @ Los Angeles Chargers
This game only has an implied total of 49.5 which surprised me. I think it’s partly to do with the Chargers bizarre loss last week. I’m not letting that game put me off their key offensive weapons as they’ve been so good for the rest of the year.
Not only has the Falcons backfield been a committee in the last few weeks, but it’s also been one that has been very unproductive. It’s hard to find a fantasy option amongst Gurley ($4.8k), Smith ($4.4k), and Hill ($42k). If you play either of these three, you’re taking a punt.
The passing game is where it gets more interesting. The fantasy leader of the pass-catchers is Calvin Ridley at $7.5k. He’s had 29 targets in the last three weeks but hasn’t produced his monstrous early season form in terms of fantasy points. Julio Jones ($6.6k) is permanently on the injury report but he came back last week to 10 targets. Russell Gage at $4.5k looks like value but his targets are inconsistent week to week. Like all the Falcons receivers, he’s not hit the heights of early season but he does have a ceiling game in his locker.
Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler ($7k) has come back from injury and taken the RB1 role in the Chargers offense. He’s very involved in the passing game so has potential for a blowup game any week.
Keenan Allen ($7.7k) is still a target magnet even if it hasn’t converted into fantasy points the past couple of weeks. Now he faces a Falcons D which gives up the second-highest fantasy points to wide receivers. Mike Williams ($4.7k) has been disappointing so far this season only scoring over 20 fpts twice. Maybe this week’s primo-matchup will help him get back on track. Jalen Guyton ($3.2k) is a big-play threat. He’s been very close to big scores on multiple weeks but just missed out.
It’s possible this game will be under-owned due to last week’s performance by the Chargers. My favourite stack here is Herbert and Allen with Julio Jones running it back. However, there are many combos in play here for me.
New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks
Teams score a lot of fantasy points against the Jets and Seattle are coming off a disappointing performance against the Giants. I expect them to make a statement here which is good for fantasy scoring. The Jets have plenty of nice fantasy pieces too so this game could be a hidden gem.
New York Jets
Last week, everything lined up for Frank Gore ($4k) to smash at low ownership. Then he got concussed on the second play of the game. Ty Johnson ($4.7k) was the main benefactor and could be in for a bellcow role again this week. Assuming Gore is still out, he’ll share backfield duties with Josh Adams ($4.1k).
However, we all know by now that you attack the Seahawks at the receiver position if you want to score fantasy points. Surprisingly, the Jets have three viable and cheap options. Jamison Crowder ($5.4k), Denzel Mims ($4.1k), and Breshad Perriman ($3.9k). Crowder has always been Darnold’s favourite possession receiver and he proved that once again last week. Mims and Perriman are both big-play targets and can go off on any week. Surely this week is their best shot.
Chris Carson ($6.9k) came back in week 12 and has made the backfield his own. The Jets are sneakily okay against the run but you can expect Carson to get most of the inside-the-five work.
Like the Vikings earlier, Seattle’s passing production goes primarily through two guys, DK Metcalf ($8.4k) and Tyler Lockett ($7.2k). It will be interesting to see how the Jets D copes with these two after the change of Defensive Coordinator. Metcalf has been outproducing Lockett as the season goes on but either one could put up a big score any week. David Moore ($3.4k) will vulture the occasional touchdown but otherwise.
There are merits to stacking both sides of this matchup but my favourite is Wilson, Metcalf, and Lockett with Perriman from the Jets.