NFL DFS: DraftKings Week 13 Strategy
The NFL DFS week 13 main slate on DraftKings has 7 games in the early window and 4 in the late. Most of the high-scoring offenses are playing in the later games this week so make sure any lineup you create has options from these late games. This gives you the flexibility to make changes to your lineups just before the late games start if the earlier games haven’t gone as you’d expect.
Below are the leverage plays and correlated lineups I’m targeting this week. if you want to know more about correlated lineups and leverage plays, please click here.
These are my personal opinions on the games and strategies at the time of writing this. I may employ different players and strategies than above if later or further information makes me re-evaluate my opinions.
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans
This game currently has the highest implied total on the slate and there are plenty of quality fantasy options on both teams.
It was nice for Browns fans to see their team play in non-apocalyptical weather last week and they were rewarded with a win.
The two-headed monster on the ground of Nick Chubb ($7.7k) and Kareem Hunt ($5.4k) continue to get the lion’s share of the work on offense. They now face a Titans defense that gives up the 8th most fantasy points on the ground. Chubb is in a funny tier price-wise and could end up being lower owned. If so, plug him in! Hunt’s fantasy production has dropped since Chubb’s return from injury and last week, he even lost his dominance in redzone touches.
Jarvis Landry ($6.2k) is the only viable option in the receiving corps. After his monster game last week, his price has increased but he still represents great value. The Titans are an average defense against the pass. Playing any other pass-catcher is a dart throw as any of them could have a good week but none of them has put together any consistent production.
I hope you played low-owned and cheap Derrick Henry last week because that won’t happen again this season. He’s been bumped up to $9.2k and is projected to be one of, if not the, highest-owned players on the slate. On the face of it, Cleveland looks like they don’t give up many points to running backs. However, they’ve come off a four-week stretch where the weather forced teams to be heavily run-focused and they faced some pretty average rushing attacks. This is the part of the season where Henry has historically stepped-up his game. The way he’s playing currently, he could break records!
It’s a good matchup against the Browns for all the Titans pass-catchers. AJ Brown ($7.6k) returned to his high-scoring ways in week 12 and got a price bump in the process. Corey Davis ($5.1k) has been fairly consistent this season if you want a cheaper piece of this game. Tight end Jonnu Smith ($4.1k) is coming off a zero points week so might be lower owned than usual. The Browns are awful against tight ends so he’s in play this week. If you want a cheap Punty McPuntface play, Anthony Firkser at only $2.5k is worth a look.
Lots to like in this game. I like a complete game stack of Tannehill, Henry, and Brown with Chubb and Landry to bring it back. I’ll also sprinkle some mini-stacks from those five in other lineups.
Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets
This game doesn’t have a high implied total which I think will suppress ownership, however, the Raiders have the fifth-highest team total. I want to take advantage of that as I think there are a few good fantasy options here.
Las Vegas Raiders
They were awful last week which was a surprise as they’ve had a pretty good fantasy year so far.
Josh Jacobs ($7.4k) has an ankle sprain and is by no means certain to play on Sunday. If he doesn’t suit up, Devontae Booker ($5.5k) is expected to take over the RB duties. If Booker starts, he will be popular.
Even in the middle of an awful team performance, Hunter Renfrow ($4.3k) managed to hit value with his 9 targets. Nelson Agholor ($5.2k) continues to consistently receive targets. Darren Waller ($6.1k) is the most expensive tight end on the slate but is an inconsistent fantasy points scorer.
New York Jets
It’s hard to believe there are many fantasy options on the Jets but if you look at the stats, there are some intriguing options.
With all the injuries, Frank Gore ($4.4k) is the only man left standing in the running back room. Last week he had 18 carries and 3 targets. On a younger man, we’d call that bellcow! He now faces a terrible Raiders run defense who give up the 4th most points to the position. If you didn’t know it was Gore, those stats would make you play them.
After starting the season with a bit of a bang, Jamison Crowder ($5.1k) has disappointed and his price has dropped since week 9. The reason may be that the Jets quarterbacks are targeting Denzel Mims ($4.1k) and Breshard Perriman ($3.9k). They’re both have an average depth of target of over 15 yards so I feel one of them has a big game just around the corner.
I’m not going to go too heavy on this game across many lineups but I’ll definitely be using Perriman with either Jacobs or Agholor as the run-backs.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers
This is another game that might go under-the-radar for fantasy players as many will expect this to be a one-sided affair.
Miles Sanders ($6.7k) is the clear lead back but wasn’t involved much in the Week 12 loss to Seattle. Boston Scott ($6k) vultured some touches and targets and consequently, DraftKings has priced him accordingly.
The Eagles receivers have gone MIA (missing-in-action, not the Dolphins) the past few weeks. Travis Fulgham ($5.2k) looked great between weeks 5 to 8 but has a high score of only 3.6 fpts since then. The other pass-catchers have been scoring single-digit points most weeks.
One of the reasons is Carson Wentz’s love of his tight ends. Dallas Goedert ($4.3k) has been his favourite target along with Richard Rogers ($3.3k). The usual TE1 Zach Ertz ($3.9k) has been activated off injured reserve and should be back on Sunday. He won’t be cheaper than this again.
Green Bay Packers
Lots of ways to go with Packers players and different stacks you can make.
Aaron Jones ($7.2k) and Jamal Williams ($6.1k) continue to share the backfield. Williams’s price has increased quite a bit due to his workload during the Chicago game. He is probably too pricey for me now.
Aaron Rodgers ($6.8k) continues to amaze with his fantasy production this season and the main benefactor is Davante Adams ($9k). Defenses know that’s where the ball is going but still seem unable to stop this pairing. You’re paying a premium for them but they’ve been worth it most weeks. Allen Lazard ($5k) has been more involved in the offense since his return from injury. Robert Tonyan ($3.7k) is an intriguing option in a very uninspiring tight end bunch on this slate. He’s averaging over 16 fpts per game in the last two weeks and oddly his price has gone down.
I’ll play multiple Packer stacks this week but my favourite is Rodgers, Adams, and Ertz.