NFL DFS: DraftKings Week 12 Strategy
The NFL DFS week 12 main slate on DraftKings has five games currently with an implied total of over 50. This means lots of fantasy goodness for us to feast on.
Week 11 validated the concepts I’ve been teaching in these articles. I had one lineup come 6th out of 178,359 entries. It was a unique, correlated lineup with leverage plays and proved that these types of lineups can win GPPs. They won’t win every week but, most importantly, they have the possibility of doing so. Most lineups in these large field GPPs have no chance of winning due to ownership and negative correlations. Just by reading this article, you are giving yourself an advantage over the field and those lineups.
Below are the leverage plays and correlated lineups I’m targeting this week. If you want to know more about correlated lineups and leverage plays, please click here.
These are my personal opinions on the games and strategies at the time of writing this. I may employ different players and strategies than above if later or further information makes me re-evaluate my opinions.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Atlanta Falcons
This game currently has the highest implied total on the slate so players from it will be popular. That means you need to fully commit to this game if you are going to stack it.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders running game all goes through Josh Jacobs ($7.2k). He gets the majority of the touches and looks in the redzone. He hasn’t had the best season fantasy-wise but proved in week 10, he’s capable of a 30 fpt game.
The passing game is heavily focused on Nelson Agholor ($4.9k) and Darren Waller ($6k). Small target trees like this are great for stacking purposes. The Falcons also give up the 4th most fantasy points to wide receivers and the most to tight ends.
Week 11 was a very low-scoring week for all of the Atlanta playmakers. This might suppress ownership in what should be a stellar matchup.
Todd Gurley ($5.5k) continues to be an enigma. When he has a limited number of touches like last week, we’re never sure if it’s a game-script thang or for health reasons. He’s had bellcow usage for most of the season so I assume he will continue to do so. The Raiders give up a lot of fantasy points to RB so Gurley could be a cheaper leverage play off the Falcons passing attack.
Talking of which, Julio Jones ($6.5k) is uncertain to start this week after picking up an injury in week 11. Russell Gage ($4.8k) was the main benefactor with 12 targets however, he didn’t turn them into a big score. Calvin Ridley ($7.1k) returned from injury and continued where he left off. He scores on average 10 more fantasy points in home games. Hayden Hurst ($3.9k) had a zero after being very consistent for weeks. I will have some exposure to him, partly because tight end looks awful this week.
There are a few ways you can stack this game but my favourite is Carr, Agholor, and Waller of the Raiders and bring it back with Ridley of the Falcons.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The second-highest implied total on the slate and so many offensive weapons you can play. If you play enough lineups, this is a game where you can play different combos of the skill positions.
Kansas City Chiefs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6.4k) scored over 20 fpts last week but 12 of those came from touchdowns. I like my running backs in that price range to be slightly less touchdown-dependent. He’s also losing touches to Le’Veon Bell ($4.5k) and Darrel Williams ($4k). The Bucs don’t give up many fantasy points to running backs so this might not be the route to take in this game.
The Chiefs passing game is always in play and matchup proof. That’s what happens when you have a QB like Mahomes. This is another focused target tree with the majority going to Tyreek Hill ($7.8k) or Travis Kelce ($7k). Occasionally, DeMarcus Robinson ($3.7k) or Mecole Hardmen ($4.2k) will have a big game but they’re very inconsistent and hard to predict.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The committee in the backfield for the Bucs is playing havoc for us fantasy players! One week, Ronald Jones ($6.1k) is the main back, the next week it’s Leonard Fournette ($4.9k). But if I had to pick one, it would be Fournette as he’s more involved in the passing game.
The passing game is equally crowded especially with the addition of Antonio Brown ($5.7k). Mike Evans ($6.1k) and Chris Godwin ($6k) have all been priced similarly (like the Pittsburgh receivers) and on any week, any of them could go off. Evans is the redzone and endzone go-to guy. Brown has received the most targets in the last two games and if that trend continues, he’s great value as the cheapest of the three.
Cameron Brate ($3.2k) and Rob Gronkowski ($4.4k) are both active members of the passing game with 10 targets between them last week. Just more mouths for Brady to feed.
My favourite way to attack this game is with the expensive stack of Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, and Antonio Brown of the Bucs. This might be too costly for most players so hopefully, it’s under-owned.
Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings
I was surprised that this game has such a low implied total (48.5) and is only the 7th highest on the slate. This might give us some opportunities to differentiate ourselves from the field.
There’s a possibility that Christian McCaffrey ($9.2k) will be back this week. If so, he’s very tempting against a middle-of-the-road Vikings defense. If he can’t suit up, Mike Davis ($6.9k) is the rushing attack. He’s too pricey for me as after a blistering start, his scores have been poor for six weeks.
It looks like Teddy Bridgewater ($6.3k) will be back this week but if he’s not, the passing game is in good hands with PJ Walker ($5.4k). This is another three-headed monster led by DJ Moore ($6.2k), Robbie Anderson ($6.1k), and Curtis Samuel ($5.1k). Samuel intrigues me the most as he’s the redzone leader of the pack, he’s the cheapest and he’s been getting rushing attempts. They’re all good options though and the Vikings give up the third-most fantasy points to receivers.
Play Dalvin Cook ($9.5k). Do I need to tell you that? He’s having a ridiculous fantasy season and the Panthers is one of the softest matchups for running backs.
Adam Thielen ($6.8k) is currently on the covid list but there’s a chance he’ll be back for Sunday, assuming he tests negative. He’s coming off his second 2 TD game in a row after a bit of a lull in his fantasy scoring. Other than Dalvin Cook, Thielen is the main target in the redzone. Justin Jefferson ($6.3k) has also found his stride the past two weeks. The great part of the Vikings passing game is how concentrated it is to these two.
There are lots of ways to stack this one but if you want a leverage play off Dalvin Cook, my favourite is Cousin, Thielen, Jefferson with Samuel of the Panthers.