NFL Betting: 2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year Market Analysis

Running backs have taken this award four out of the last seven years and there’s a standout proposition ready to rush his way to the title in 2020. In this article we will take a look at the NFL betting market when it comes to the Offensive Rookie of the Year award in 2020.

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A clear market stand out at the Quarterback position

Offensive Rookie of the Year 2020, NFL Betting: Offensive Rookie of the Year

Unsurprisingly, the market leader is number one pick Joe Burrow and he’s a worthy favourite following a lights out season at LSU. Passer rating and passing touchdown records fell in his wake IN 2019 and he’s an exciting addition, but at 12/5 (Bet365) there are reasons to go look elsewhere. 

The Offensive Line is rotten in Cincinnati and even an established quarterback would have his work cut out, can a rookie really be expected to shine behind it? Aside from the dysfunctional O-Line, it is exprected that the Bengals will be without star receiver A.J. Green for at least part of the season given his recent injury struggled. The supporting cast isn’t bad, but Burrow’s targets are undoubtedly weakened if Green is absent for any length of time. 

The other quarterbacks in the reckoning are Tua Tagovailoa (8/1) and Justin Herbert (16/1), neither look likely to be the starting quarterback for their respective teams when the season gets underway, and history suggests you need to play plenty of games to be in the running. I can see both men taking the starting reigns as the season progresses but neither look a betting proposition at this stage.

A lot of uncertainty among the wide receiver options

Wide receivers have only won this award three times in the current millennium and that trend is alarming enough to almost write them off entirely. The top two in the market are Jerry Jeudy of the Broncos and CeeDee Lamb of the Cowboys. 

Courtland Sutton will be the main man in Denver and although I can see Jeudy making some waves this season, he won’t be able to make the impact required to win the award. The story looks much the same for Lamb in Dallas, as he joins a corps which contains Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup so he will have to be patient. 

Raiders first-rounder Henry Ruggs III (16/1) is arguably the pick of the receivers in terms of this award. The speedster out of Alabama is likely to see plenty of targets and could make some eye-catching plays downfield but he still makes little appeal in this market.

Running back is the place to find the value

There are two standouts amongst this year’s contingent at the running back position. 

Firstly, is the second-favourite overall Clyde Edwards-Helaire (4/1). The Chiefs saw fit to take Edwards-Helaire in the first round of the draft and he looks a serious dual threat prospect, backing up his threat on the ground with a safe pair of hands in the receiving game. The absence of Chiefs 2019 number-one running back Damien Williams only boosts the chances of the LSU recruit, but the presence of the league’s best quarterback in Patrick Mahomes could be a negative. It’s difficult to shine alongside the greatest player in the game! Edwards-Helaire is set for a huge season but at 4/1 he’s short enough to the point where value is lost. 

The real value appears to be in Indianapolis in the form of the super talented Jonathan Taylor (10/1). The second-round pick put up some obscene numbers at Wisconsin and has landed on the perfect roster to showcase his skill set this season. He should see plenty of snaps alongside Marlon Mack and has the opportunity to work behind maybe the best Offensive Line in the NFL. Taylor has also demonstrated promise in the receiving game, and with the Colts receiving core not exactly the most consistent, he should get the chance to shine through the air as well as prove how devastating he is on the ground. At 10/1, he rates a strong selection to give you a ‘run’ for your money.

Michael Norbury

NFL Betting Analyst