2019-10-11
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By Ben Rolfe
Week 6 offers us a great opportunity to cash in, with roles known and nearly a third of the season worth of information for us to use. We are starting to see trends develop, both offensively and defensively. This Week should be high scoring, with seven of the 10 games having a projected total over 45. The games with the extremely low totals can be found in Denver and Baltimore, and outside of the odd player those are situations to avoid. If you can find a usable player in those situation, then those totals should have depressed the price enough to make them a good value.
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In this article, you will find my Week 6 picks on DraftKings, which are based on matchups, situation, weather and betting lines. The focus of this piece will be looking at upside, and is, therefore, more suited for use in GPP formats. However, the names below can also double up as options in cash games, alongside some safer bets.
What is not to love about Ryan this week? Arizona allow the second most opposing plays to opposing offenses of anyone on this slate, and they allow 24.8 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Additionally, the Arizona offense has proven you cannot take you foot off the gas against them, so expect to see Ryan slinging it from start to finish.
Shall we get funky this week? This one might seem odd but stick with me for a second here. Miami are coming off their bye week and are facing the team which ranks 30th against quarterbacks, allowing an average of 23.9 FPPG. Rosen has some solid weapons in the form of Devante Parker and Preston Williams, and the Washington defense is pretty leaky at best.
We have seen the Cincinnati defense put up some pretty ugly performances this season against opposing running backs. They rank 31st against opposing running backs and allow an average of 20.9 FPPG to opposing RB1’s, so Ingram should be able to have some success. Ingram has had double-digit carries in every game this season, and against this defense a fifth touchdown and a third 100-yard rushing performances could be on the table.
Another fantastic matchup for a number one running back against a defense which had been ravaged in the first four weeks by opposing running backs. They bounced back last week, but this will be a tough challenge against a back who averages 19.6 carries per game and a touchdown per game. This should be a tight low scoring game, and they are often the ones Henry shines in.
You will not find many weeks where I do not consider Thompson when he is fully healthy. Thompson is averaging seven targets per game to go with four carries. This game is a battle between two bad defenses and could develop into a shootout, offering a chance for Thompson to put up a fifth double-digit performance of the season.
Thielen got himself going again in a big way last week with a second two touchdown performance in three weeks after a grim performance against Chicago. Right now it appears Thielen is the number one in this offense, and they average 20.1 FPPG against the Philadelphia secondary. If Thielen does not recover from his illness then at $5,900 this might be the time Minnesota decide to get Stefon Diggs going.
This is a perfect spot to be firing up McLaurin, who is averaging nearly eight targets per game and has over 17 FPPG in three of his four appearances so far this season. Miami are allowing an average of 19.9 FPPG to opposing WR1, and after a quiet week against a tough New England defense I expect to see McLaurin bounce back this week.
This is dependent on it definitely being Sam Darnold under centre, but if he is then firing up Crowder is a good way to go. In his one game with Darnold this season, Crowder saw a whopping 17 targets, catching 14 and putting up 24.3 points. Darnold is not going to be 100% in this one and therefore will be looking for short quick passes which suit the style of Crowder’s game.
It took the mediocrity of Cincinnati to make Arizona look good against tight ends, but that should bounce back this weekend. Hooper has averaged 8.4 targets per game and put up double-digit fantasy points in four of the five games, including over 20 points in two of them. Arizona are averaging 24.6 FPPG against tight ends this season, so Hooper could be in for another big day.
Seattle have struggled a little against the tight end position allowing over 16 FPPG. Seals-Jones is a gamble having seen just six targets the last three weeks, but this Browns offense needs to get going and the tight end position is the best way to do that this week.
I have really liked what the Tennessee defense has done this season. They have stifled offenses and kept games close. The Denver offense has had its struggled and Joe Flacco can be prone to turnovers when under pressure. My only concern is that the altitude tires the Tennessee defenders, but hopefully they have done the damage before that.
Head of NFL Content
BEN IS THE HEAD OF NFL CONTENT FOR THE TOUCHDOWN. YOU CAN ALSO FIND HIS WORK AT; FFSTATISTICS, PRO FOOTBALL NETWORK & ROTOBALLER. FOLLOW BEN @BENROLFE15 ON TWITTER.
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