2019-11-27
Whether you live in the USA or somewhere else in the world, Thanksgiving has a treat for everyone. Three games of NFL football in the middle of the week is hard to not enjoy, even if the matchups are not great. Even then there is a way to make those not so great matchups more interesting. That solution comes in the form of the DraftKings Thanksgiving contests this week. Even if you have no interest in the three games, these contests give you a reason to stay transfixed to the television.
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In this article, you will find my DraftKings Thanksgiving picks on, which are based on matchups, situation, weather and betting lines. The focus of this piece will be looking at upside, and is, therefore, more suited for use in GPP formats. However, the names below can also double up as options in cash games, alongside some safer bets.
Given that Brees had less than 12 fantasy points the last time these two teams met you may think I am a little crazy for this pick. However, we saw the Atlanta defense regress back to their early season form last weekend. As for Brees, he has had over 20 fantasy points in the other four games he has completed this season. New Orleans are going to be looking revenge in this one, and Brees should be the one to deliver it.
Twice in the last three weeks we have seen a 20-point return from Trubisky. One of those matchups was against these very same Lions, but outside in the tough conditions of Soldier Field. This week these two teams meet again, but in the placid conditions of Ford Field. The Detroit defense is among the worst in the league when it comes to allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks, allowing an average of 22.6 FPPG this season, which rises to over 26 at home.
This one is easy. Buffalo has had trouble against the run a couple of times this season. The most notable one of those was when Philadelphia ran all over them a few weeks ago. Dallas wil be desperate to bounce back from last weekend, and the best way to do that is ride Elliott hard. Elliott is a safe play this weekend having just one single-digit game this season.
Most people have been convinced that David Montgomery is the man to own in the Chicago backfield, but it is Tarik Cohen which has proven to be the safer play the last few weeks. Cohen has returned three double-digit performances in the last three weeks and now has a nice matchup against a team ranking 31st against running backs on DraftKings.
At this price all you are looking for is a touchdown and a return of around 10 points. In a GPP contest you are looking for any little edge you can get at a cheap price. Ollison has seen snaps in the last two games, and he has found the end zone in both games.
There is not safer play in the NFL right now. Even when the New Orleans offense struggles, Thomas succeeds. Evidence of that is his 30-point performance in the embarrassing loss three weeks ago.
I am going full Chicago offense in this one. The Detroit defense is the worst one on show this Thanksgiving. They are allowing over 20 FPPG to lead wide receivers at home this season. Robinson has eight double-digit returns in his 11 games this season. Last week he saw 10 targets for 131 yards and a touchdown, returning 28.1 fantasy points.
Since returning from injury I have been super impressed with Cobb. Yes, this is not the easiest matchup, against a Buffalo team which is strong against the pass. However, he has seen 30 targets in the last four games, returning double-digit returns in the last three, and 20-point returns in two of those three games. Being the third receiver in this offense really plays into his hands and he should be able to make plays for Dallas in this game.
Another player who succeeded when these two teams last met, despite the scoreline, was Cook. He returned a 13.4 fantasy point return at home to Atlanta, and has double-digits in his last five games. He has found the end zone in four of the last five, and I like his chances to do it again this week.
Which quarterback do you most want to go against of the six on show on Thanksgiving? The choices are easy to me. Jeff Driskel and Mitch Trubisky. Now which defense do I trust the most? Yeah, its not the Detroit one, so that leaves me with Chicago at a nice price.
Disclaimer: I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is brolfe1507) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
Head of NFL Content
BEN IS THE HEAD OF NFL CONTENT FOR THE TOUCHDOWN. YOU CAN ALSO FIND HIS WORK AT; FFSTATISTICS, PRO FOOTBALL NETWORK & ROTOBALLER. FOLLOW BEN @BENROLFE15 ON TWITTER.
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