CFB Week 6 Game Picks: Can Vandy upset Bama in Back-to-Back Years?
After a huge Week 5, this week may give us some respite, but no less entertainment. The SEC continues to work itself out. Can Alabama avoid a banana skin and move up the rankings? Can Texas A&M and Miami prove themselves as National Title contenders? Meanwhile, Virginia needs to recapture some of the magic of last week to land another upset in the ACC. Let’s examine our weekly game picks.
Vanderbilt at Alabama, 3.30PM ET / 8.30PM GMT, ABC
Alabama favoured by 10.5 points
All the chatter in the build-up to this one will focus on the shock upset Pavia and the Boys handed Bama last year. But let’s not get out over our skis. Alabama has come a long way since its opening-day defeat to Florida State. Ty Simpson is a real Heisman contender, and this defense looked legitimate against Georgia. Add that to the fact that the Crimson Tide have home advantage this time around, and the spread actually looks favourable towards them.
I’m not saying Diego Pavia doesn’t have it in him, but Bama won’t be sleepwalking into this one. Vanderbilt is no longer the SEC’s whipping boy, but the big dogs found their bite last week, and I expect them to continue their upward trajectory.
Pick: Alabama to cover.
Virginia at Louisville, 3.30PM ET / 8.30PM GMT, ESPN
Louisville favoured by 7 points
Virginia finds itself a ranked underdog in this one after it pulled out an overtime victory over Florida State last week. Given the lack of heavy-hitters on their schedule, that win puts them in the ACC title conversation. QB Chandler Morris has plenty of experience but was up and down last week. Two passing touchdowns and three with his legs secured the win, but Louisville will be aware of the three picks he threw, also.
The Cardinals had five turnovers in their comeback win vs Pitt and will be eyeing up Morris’s spotty play as a potential game changer. Their signal caller Miller Moss threw for 339 yards and 3 TDs, teaming up with Chris Bell for 135 yards. It’s hard to mail in back-to-back underdog wins, and that’s why I’ll take the Cards for the win, but Virginia with the points.
Pick: Virginia +7
Texas at Florida, 3.30PM ET / 8.30PM GMT, ESPN
Texas favoured by 7 points
You could give me all the points in the world in this one, and I’d still pick the Longhorns. Well, not quite, but you get the picture. Despite the deflation felt early by Arch Manning’s mediocrity, he has had two cupcakes to hit his stride. Also, this defense held Ohio State to 14 points and has some stud front-seven guys. Anthony Hill and Colin Simmons against this O-line and a nervous DJ Lagway, they should feast.
The pressure is firmly on Billy Napier, and a home blowout could be the nail in his coffin. The Gators gave up 184 yards on the ground vs Miami and now face the possibility of Quintrevion Wisner returning from injury. I don’t think I need to repeat myself – Texas for the win!
Pick: Texas to cover.
Mississippi State at Texas A&M, 7.30PM ET / 12.30AM GMT, SEC Network
Texas A&M favoured by 14 points
Had Jeff Lebby and the Bulldogs pulled off the upset vs Tennessee, they would have been unbeaten heading into this one. That’s quite the turnaround for a team that won two games last year. Blake Shapen has been efficient at QB, and the defensive secondary has seven interceptions, allowing just over 17 points per game.
Now they face another stiff test in the nation’s second-highest-ranked SEC team, Texas A&M. It was a battle for them to overcome Auburn last week, needing their defensive line to wreak havoc with the offense only scoring 16 points. The Aggies are the most talented team here, but 14 points is a big swing for an offense that sputtered last time out. I’ll take the Bulldogs and the points.
Pick: Mississippi State +14
Miami at Florida State, 7.30PM ET / 12.30AM GMT, ABC
Miami favoured by 4.5 points
We end the night with another Floridian battle. Florida State will be desperate to avenge their close loss to Virginia last week and credit to their offense, which did everything possible to win them the game. The emergence of Duce Robinson with 147 receiving yards should be noteworthy for this Miami defense, as well as the running threat of QB Tommy Castellanos.
Miami come into this one fresh off a bye week, which could be beneficial, but they should be wary of coming in cold. Expect them to lean heavily on Mark Fletcher and the run game, dictating the time of possession. Their defense is talented enough up front to get them the ball back, and Carson Beck has assumed the game manager role well. If the Canes really think they can make the playoffs, they have to win road games like this.
Pick: Miami to cover
Rory-Joe Daniels
NFL & Cfb contributor
AS A LONG-SUFFERING CINCINNATI BENGALS FAN, RORY HAS FOLLOWED THE NFL FOR OVER 20 YEARS. HIS PASSION FOR THE DRAFT LED HIM TO GET ENTANGLED WITH COLLEGE FOOTBALL AND HE HAS BEEN WRITING ABOUT PROSPECTS AND THE CFB LANDSCAPE EVER SINCE.