CFB Week 1 Game Picks: Arch's Big Test Headlines Showcase CFB Weekend
Week 0 of College Football suitably whet the appetite (I promise not all my weekly columns will start with food analogies). From a wet and wild Dublin opener to a Hawaii – Stanford nail-biter, it contained everything you would expect from a CFB curtain-raiser. Now the focus turns to an extended weekend of action that winds its way right from Thursday through to Labor Day Monday. I’ve picked out the ‘big five’ games to give you a steer on how things might shake out.
Auburn at Baylor, 8.00PM ET / 1AM GMT, FOX (Friday)
Auburn favoured by 2.5pts
A road game against a team on the up with an experienced QB who is a dark horse for next year’s draft. Not exactly how Hugh Freeze would have hoped to open the season. Baylor made real strides last year under Dave Aranda and Sawyer Robertson could be one of the top QBs in the nation. The Bears offense is a strong unit, with a talented running back tandem and receiving additions Kobe Prentice and Michael Trigg.
Freeze has gambled on Jackson Arnold at QB who was benched for spells in Oklahoma last year but should be elevated by the ridiculous talent of Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton. They should take advantage of a Baylor secondary that PFF ranked 116th in 2024.
All that said I think a rocking home crowd and the Bears having the QB advantage makes Baylor the pick.
Pick: Baylor outright
Texas at Ohio State, 12PM ET / 5PM GMT, FOX
Ohio State favoured by 1.5pts
The big game of the weekend will be at noon on Saturday, as two of the favourites for the National Championship face off. The Longhorns begin their Arch Manning journey in full while the Julian Sayin era begins for the Buckeyes at QB.
There is a huge amount of talent on both sides of the ball but the continuity of the Longhorns coaching and playing staff gives them the slight edge. All eyes will be on the test that Manning offers the new Matt Patricia-led Ohio State defense. Despite the star power of Caleb Downs and Sonny Styles, this is a unit that lost a lot of talent in the offseason.
This is an acid test for Steve Sarkisian to see if his Longhorns can cope with the pressure of taking on a powerhouse away from home and not miss a beat. For me, Manning will thrive in his biggest test yet.
Pick: Texas outright
Alabama at Florida State, 3.30PM ET / 8.30PM GMT, ABC
Alabama favoured by 11pts
Thomas Castellanos laughs in the face of pressure. He must do, considering his outspoken comments regarding the Crimson Tide ahead of the season opener. It was big talk considering he was benched at Boston College and the team he has transferred to had only 2 wins in 2024. I don’t expect the Seminoles to be that bad again but taking down ‘Bama seems unlikely.
Castellanos’ comments will fuel the likes of LT Overton and Deonte Lawson, their talent could make it a long night for the new Seminoles signal caller. Bama head coach Kalen DeBoer has opted for Ty Simpson as his starting QB and even if he isn’t as talented as Jalen Milroe, he should be able to navigate this game before stiffer challenges in the SEC.
Everyone likes trash talk but the Seminoles might have bitten off too much here even with a Gus Malzahn offensive gameplan.
Pick: Alabama -11.0
LSU @ Clemson, 8PM ET / 1AM GMT, ABC
Clemson favoured by 4 points
Brian Kelly must wish his AD would give him a break just once on opening weekend. Since becoming LSU head coach he has lost each of his three season openers and faces another buzzsaw here given Clemson’s billing as ACC favourite and National Championship contender. They have a top QB in Cade Klubnik and a defense headlined by two potential top-10 players in TJ Parker and Peter Woods.
LSU are not short of talent either, Garrett Nussmeier would like to be QB1 come next spring. Whit Weeks and Harold Perkins have flashed as elite defenders but questions remain over the strength of this rebuilt secondary. The defense will have to find a way of slowing down Klubnik and give Nussmeier a chance to go toe-to-toe.
Things are unlikely to get better for Brian Kelly here and I think he’ll be 0-4 in season openers by the end of the weekend.
Pick: Clemson -4.0
Notre Dame @ Miami, 7.30PM ET / 12.30AM GMT
Notre Dame favoured by 3pts
We’ll have a bigger preview of this game in our weekly Fighting Irish column so I won’t delve too deep here, but what a way to end the weekend. Notre Dame fresh off a National Championship appearance coming into Hard Rock Stadium on a Sunday night. Hat tip to all involved in that bit of scheduling.
This Miami team remains uber-talented but the real question mark is if Carson Beck can keep the QB standard high. He has a lot to live up to following on from the draft’s 1st overall pick Cam Ward. Beck isn’t as mobile as Ward, meaning the Irish will hope to disrupt the pocket and force throws to a Leonard Moore led secondary.
Notre Dame have an even stiffer task at QB as they ask true freshman CJ Carr to get them off the mark in this baptism of fire. Freeman has got this Notre Dame team cooking but loss of playing talent and coaching (DC Al Golden is now with the Bengals in the NFL), could cause early instability. They’ll lean on star running back Jeremiyah Love to keep the chains moving.
Beck should give the Hurricanes a decent floor and for that reason I have to side with them given the inexperience of Carr opposite.
Pick: Miami +3.0pts
Rory-Joe Daniels
NFL & Cfb contributor
AS A LONG-SUFFERING CINCINNATI BENGALS FAN, RORY HAS FOLLOWED THE NFL FOR OVER 20 YEARS. HIS PASSION FOR THE DRAFT LED HIM TO GET ENTANGLED WITH COLLEGE FOOTBALL AND HE HAS BEEN WRITING ABOUT PROSPECTS AND THE CFB LANDSCAPE EVER SINCE.