CFB: Championship Weekend Game Picks
Strap in folks, this one could be a bumpy ride. Championship Weekend with a 12-team playoff field will likely provide plenty of twists and turns. Can SMU secure a spot with a win, or will they be left sweating on a committee decision? Which teams will secure byes for the first round of the playoffs? Here’s my picks for how the weekend could unfold…
Mountain West Championship: Boise State vs UNLV
A win at home in this one for Boise State guarantees them a playoff berth and a bye in the first round. It will also give Ashton Jeanty, their star running back, two more games to pad his Heisman resume. The UNLV Rebels kept Jeanty to his lowest average yards per carry mark of the season in their meeting in Week 9 (3.9 yards) and will need to do so again to cause an upset.
It would be quite the story for the Rebels to make it into the playoffs, considering QB Hajj-Malik Williams was QB2 coming into the year. He and star receiver Ricky White will be the main threats offensively. Still, I expect the Broncos to inflict a heavier margin of defeat than the 5 points they managed earlier in the season, given they will have home advantage this time.
Prediction: Boise State 38-24 UNLV
Big 12 Championship: Iowa State vs Arizona State
What a run these two teams have made to give themselves a shot at the playoffs. It’s a win-and-in game for the 15th and 16th-ranked teams in the nation. Only the Championship winner will get an automatic berth. Arizona State will be a two-point favourite, and given their dominant victory over Arizona last time out, they are the form team. Their offense will be based on physical running back Cam Skattebo, who scored three touchdowns in his previous outings against BYU and the Wildcats.
The Cyclones are led by QB Rocco Becht and his receiving duo Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Both receivers have over 1,000 yards receiving this season and are one of the most productive duos in the nation. On the other side of the ball, Iowa State has the 18th-ranked defense in the country and has 14 interceptions this season; Sun Devils QB Sam Leavitt will have to be on his mettle.
Despite the Cyclones’ stout defense, they are more susceptible to the run. On average, they concede 173.7 rushing yards per game, and for that reason, I believe Skattebo and the Sun Devils will win a tight one.
Prediction: Iowa State 23-28 Arizona State
SEC Championship: Georgia vs Texas
The SEC Championship will be another rematch from the season. The Georgia defense was dominant in Week 8, stifling Quinn Ewers, leading to his temporary benching in favour of Arch Manning. Since then, the Longhorns resumed their winning run even if their SEC opponents were not particularly strong. Now they get a second crack at the Bulldogs, who suffered defeat to Ole Miss and only just squeezed by Georgia Tech last week. Defensively, Georgia has failed to live up to the high standard they set against the Longhorns and will need to reemerge here to get the win.
One good omen for Georgia is that quarterback Carson Beck looked more like his old self last time out. He threw for 297 yards and five touchdowns, avoiding the interceptions that have plagued him throughout the year. This Texas secondary has some ballhawks in the shape of Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba, which could cause some of the old problems to raise their ugly heads.
Texas needs to prove itself, and I don’t think the Bulldogs’ defense is in the same shape as it was the first time around. I’ll take the Longhorns in this one.
Prediction: Georgia 17-20 Texas
ACC Championship: Clemson vs SMU
The most intriguing game of the weekend is the ACC Championship. An SMU victory makes things straightforward: They would secure a first-round bye in the playoffs, and Clemson wouldn’t have the strength of schedule to command an “at large” berth. However, if the Tigers win, SMU will face several days of nervous waiting, considering the selection committee has muted that a loss could see them being leapfrogged by a three-loss Alabama. After the controversy last year with FSU, it’s a situation we could all do without.
Clemson hasn’t done much to persuade me that they can make a playoff run. They lack the star power of previous iterations, mainly due to Dabo Swinney’s stubbornness regarding the transfer portal. Cade Klubnik has improved substantially, but I believe the Mustangs’ Kevin Jennings is the better quarterback in this matchup. He has true star power and could put on a show in this one.
Prediction: Clemson 31-34 SMU
Big 10 Championship: Penn State vs Oregon
Who’d have thought that the Big 10 Championship would be taking place without Ohio State? But here we are. Oregon is the only unbeaten Power 5 side and has looked convincing. Penn State has narrow wins vs. USC and Minnesota but failed its big test against the Buckeyes, never looking threatening in a 20-13 loss. It’s difficult to see them putting the Ducks to the sword, but they do have some playmakers who could make a difference.
Running back Nic Singleton averages over six yards a carry but hasn’t crossed the 100-yard rushing mark since Week 2. Tight end Tyler Warren is arguably the most talented player on offense and is closing in on the 1000 receiving-yard mark. However, Dillon Gabriel and his receiving group of Evan Stewart, Tez Johnson and Traeshon Holden are about as explosive as they come. Even if you come up with a way to slow the passing game down, running back Jordan James averages 5.7 yards per carry and has 13 touchdowns.
The Ducks should be too explosive in this one and maintain their grip on the No. 1 spot.
Penn State 17-31 Oregon
Rory-Joe Daniels
NFL & Cfb contributor
AS A LONG-SUFFERING CINCINNATI BENGALS FAN, RORY HAS FOLLOWED THE NFL FOR OVER 20 YEARS. HIS PASSION FOR THE DRAFT LED HIM TO GET ENTANGLED WITH COLLEGE FOOTBALL AND HE HAS BEEN WRITING ABOUT PROSPECTS AND THE CFB LANDSCAPE EVER SINCE.