Big 10 Weekly: Losing run continues in Unhappy Valley
The Big 10’s grip on the College Football rankings remains tight, but the SEC is waiting in the wings for a slip-up. Ohio State and Indiana remain unbeaten in the top two spots, with Oregon behind three SEC teams in sixth. Even with all that going on, focus remains heavy on the car crash of a season in Penn State and the impending future of the HC in Madison. We start there and round off with a look ahead to the games to watch this weekend.
Where do the Nittany Lions go from here?
There was no post-Franklin bump for Penn State on Saturday; they took their fourth defeat in a row and second by only a single point. It wasn’t much of a surprise, given the Lions had to break in redshirt sophomore QB Ethan Grunkemeyer against a tough Iowa defense. Rather than analysing the fallout of this year’s results, the more intriguing question is what lies in store for 2026.
First up, the small matter of the head coaching vacancy. The current favourite is Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule. As a Penn State alum, it’s clear why he makes sense. A rough outing on Saturday vs Minnesota is unlikely to dampen the buzz surrounding Rhule, who has enjoyed success at every college stop.
One of the other candidates, Curt Cignetti, effectively ruled himself out of contention by signing a bumper $11.6 million per year deal that keeps him in charge of the Hoosiers for the next 8 years. After repeating his success of a year ago, it’s safe to say Cignetti sees higher upside at the traditional basketball school than the former football powerhouse.
Other names to consider are Matt Campbell and Joe Brady, but whoever lands one of the biggest jobs in college football is likely to have a major rebuild on their hands. The next few weeks will give Grunkemeyer a chance to show whether he has the ability to take on Big 10 defenses. However, it also serves as his audition for other teams, considering the new head coach will likely bring his own quarterback.
Holes are likely to open across this roster come draft season. Both running backs, Drew Allar, Dani Dennis-Sutton and more are nearly guaranteed to go pro. Who are the players set to emerge on this roster as replacements?
The upcoming weeks will require the likes of edge defender Chaz Coleman (12 pressures on the season) and the other first and second-year players to develop. There’s plenty of talent in the likes of Daryus Dixson, DeJuan Lane, Owen Aliciene and Koby Howard; they now need additional snaps to aid development ahead of next year.
According to On3, Penn State currently ranks 18th nationally with their 2026 recruiting class. That’s slightly behind where they were over the last two years, and they don’t currently have a 5-star recruit. Regardless of who the incumbent coach is, they will need to hit the ground running if they are to meet the playoff expectations of the fan base.
Is Luke Fickell Next Man Out?
As the season gets to a critical juncture, head coaches’ seats are heating up. This week saw us lose two more big names, Billy Napier and Jay Norvell, leaving Florida and Colorado State, respectively. Next in the firing line appears to be Luke Fickell at Wisconsin. His case wasn’t helped by a 34-0 shutout against his own alma mater, Ohio State. Now he faces Oregon and the prospect of a 3rd straight week without scoring a point, surely not!
There were some words of encouragement from his athletic director, Chris McIntosh, who, in a roundabout way, seemed to infer that the Badgers hadn’t been financially prepared to do battle at the sharp end of the Big 10. That may be more of a way of protecting his own job than Fickell, who surely will run out of excuses if the Ducks run roughshod on Saturday.
Even if he survives that, the schedule shows no signs of easing up. Washington, with dual-threat QB Demond Williams, has caused issues regularly for opponents, and after that no.2 ranked Indiana would surely be the final blow to a beleaguered Fickell. With his 2026 recruiting class seemingly falling apart as well, it’s nearly impossible to envisage Fickell on the sideline for the season opener next year.
Mendoza remains ahead in Heisman race, Sayin gaining ground
The chances of a Big 10 player winning the Heisman trophy remain strong. An excellent performance from Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza keeps him as the bookies’ favourite for the award. He turned in a 24-28, 332-yard, four-touchdown performance against Michigan State, also enhancing his draft stock.
Julian Sayin keeps winning at Ohio State, and as the number one team in the country, it means he will also be part of the conversation. Until Saturday, Sayin was playing the role of game manager for the Buckeyes, but he exploded against Wisconsin, earning a PFF passing grade of 91.6. His play is a big reason why the Buckeyes are considered the nation’s top team.
The other leading contender from the division is Oregon’s Dante Moore. His hopes took a backward step with the Indiana loss, but he does have some matchups that will boost his resume. Games against a strong Iowa defense and USC give him a chance to make a late surge.
Look ahead to the weekend
This could be a big weekend for the Big 10, even though there isn’t a headline-grabbing game. Six teams with 5-2 records will battle each other, and surprisingly, the closest contest in terms of betting spread is 4.5 points. That’s between Washington and Illinois; a win for the Huskies could see them become part of the Top 25 conversation.
The conference’s middle class should be rearranged with the results of the other two matchups. Iowa hosts Minnesota, both teams ruing early-season slip-ups and looking to cling to the playoff race. Nebraska is a 7-point favourite over Northwestern, and all eyes will be on Matt Rhule, given the links to Penn State. Nittany Lions fans may hope for Rhule’s side to be out of playoff contention, thereby speeding up the hiring process.
Elsewhere, a rejuvenated UCLA could be somewhat of a headache for Indiana. Even if they don’t cause an upset, the Bruins look good value at +25.5 points. If you’re looking for needle then the Michigan vs Michigan State matchup is always worth a watch. Spartans head coach Jonathan Smith could certainly use the boost of a rivalry game win.
Full Schedule
Rutgers @ Purdue
Wisconsin @ Oregon
Illinois @ Washington
UCLA @ Indiana
Michigan @ Michigan State
Minnesota @ Iowa
Northwestern @ Nebraska
Rory-Joe Daniels
NFL & Cfb contributor
AS A LONG-SUFFERING CINCINNATI BENGALS FAN, RORY HAS FOLLOWED THE NFL FOR OVER 20 YEARS. HIS PASSION FOR THE DRAFT LED HIM TO GET ENTANGLED WITH COLLEGE FOOTBALL AND HE HAS BEEN WRITING ABOUT PROSPECTS AND THE CFB LANDSCAPE EVER SINCE.