Big 10 Weekly: Conference Championship Preview
Ohio State Buckeyes vs Indiana Hoosiers
And just like that, the Conference Championship is upon us. While both sides have already secured playoff spots with unbeaten seasons, this remains a mouth-watering showdown. Not only for Big 10 bragging rights, but also for precious momentum as they move into the post-season. So let’s dig in and focus on where the game will likely be won and lost.
The Coaches
It’s unfair to belittle the job Ryan Day has done at Ohio State. Winning a National Championship is not a simple task (just ask Brian Kelly!). But, if you were choosing a situation to be dropped into, then the Buckeyes post-Urban Meyer is a pretty good landing spot. Day has excelled with a record of 81 wins to 10 losses (89% win rate). He has consistently built strong recruiting classes and been an unmitigated success, bar a poor run of form against a certain team that plays in blue and maize.
The road to a Big 10 Championship has been more well-trodden by Curt Cignetti. Now 64, Cignetti’s journey to the top came via IUP, Elon and James Madison. Since his arrival in Indiana, Cignetti has a 23-2 record with the Hoosiers (90.5% win rate), proving to coaches at lower levels that sustained success will pay off. Now he needs to come up with a gameplan good enough to knock off arguably the most talented team in the nation.
The Quarterbacks
The quarterback battle in this one likely doubles as a Heisman audition. The performances of these two have been stellar throughout the season, and the winner will only strengthen their case to be crowned the victor in New York.
The stats of these two are eerily similar. Sayin is ranked slightly higher by PFF in passing grade and has a higher completion rate, though both are above the 70% mark in that metric. Mendoza averages 9.3 yards per attempt, Sayin, 9.4. Mendoza has two more touchdown throws than Sayin, with 32; both have five interceptions. They also match one another with 18 big-time throws. Spooky eh!
Where there is a marked difference is the pressure to sack %. Sayin has only taken eight sacks at a P2S % of 9.5, while Mendoza has been dropped 15 times at 15.6%. With the likes of Caden Curry and Arvel Reese providing the pressure for the Buckeyes, Mendoza’s escapability will be key to the Hoosiers’ offense being able to put up points.
Mendoza has more experience and is already touted as a potential No. 1 draft pick in 2026, but that should be the case for Sayin in a year or two as well. The difference between the signal callers could come down to supporting cast, and it’s difficult not to say Sayin has a slight edge in that area.
When Indiana have the ball
As we have alluded to, the key when Indiana has the ball will be keeping their QB Fernando Mendoza upright. The Buckeyes pair of Caden Curry and Arvel Resse have combined for 18 sacks and both have pass rush win rates just shy of 15%. Hoosiers’ left tackle Carter Smith has been exemplary not allowing a sack this year, could right tackle Khalil Benson be targeted by the Ohio State pass rush?
If Mendoza does get time, then he has a strong receiving group to target. Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarrett both average over 13 yards per reception and have 11 TDs. They’ll pose questions of this Buckeyes defense and could cause Caleb Downs to drop deeper to prevent them from taking the top off the defense.
In the running game, the Hoosiers have a physical duo in Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black to take the weight off Mendoza. They’ll face one of my favourite players in this year’s draft class, Sonny Styles, an athletic and physical linebacker. The key for Indiana will be a balanced attack that keeps all of Ohio State’s defense honest. The Buckeyes have stars at all three levels that will look to put Mendoza and co. on the back foot.
When Ohio State have the ball
The stars of this Buckeyes offense are the receiving duo of Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith. Finding a way to slow them down and stifle the passing game is a must for Indiana. That’s easier said than done when there’s also Max Klare and Brandon Inniss as secondary options in the passing game. With the announcement that Offensive Coordinator Brian Hartline will become head coach of South Florida after the playoffs, this really could be his swansong with an ultra-talented group.
D’Angelo Ponds is the star of the Hoosiers’ secondary, but he can’t cover everyone. His battle against Jeremiah Smith will be intriguing, but I would expect Sayin to switch to other options if Ponds proves difficult to shake off. Mikail Kamara leads the Hoosiers in pressures with 46, but he has struggled to turn that into sacks. This would be a good game to buck that trend.
Overall, this is a high-energy defense that will send plenty of pressure to disrupt Sayin. The problem is, if they don’t get home regularly enough, Sayin has shown the ability to hit big shots to his elite playmakers.
Prediction
This is a chance for Indiana to prove they can be a legitimate Championship contender. They’ve done it once this year against Oregon, while Ohio State have lacked a real signature win, an early victory over Texas and a recent triumph over Michigan aside, this will be a different cup of tea. I think the talent and depth of the Buckeyes prevail, but Cignetti has enough about him to keep it interesting.
Ohio State 27-21 Indiana
Rory-Joe Daniels
NFL & Cfb contributor
AS A LONG-SUFFERING CINCINNATI BENGALS FAN, RORY HAS FOLLOWED THE NFL FOR OVER 20 YEARS. HIS PASSION FOR THE DRAFT LED HIM TO GET ENTANGLED WITH COLLEGE FOOTBALL AND HE HAS BEEN WRITING ABOUT PROSPECTS AND THE CFB LANDSCAPE EVER SINCE.