Another top five pick for the Jaguars - a history of failure
By Andy Davies
The Jacksonville Jaguars currently hold the fifth overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, after what has so far been a more than underwhelming season with a 3-10 record so far at time of writing.
It has been a difficult past twelve months for the Jaguars. Last season, after a 24-21 road win against the Houston Texans in late November (Week 12), Jacksonville went 8-3. This marked a 13-3 streak as they had the number one seed in the AFC.
The Jaguars then went 1-5 for the remainder of the season and missed out on the playoffs altogether. Their form has continued into 2024, losing each of their first four games. Just three wins have followed, as the team currently stands 3-10, their win in Tennessee on Sunday marking their first win on the road since that aforementioned win in Houston last season.
The Jaguars had the first overall pick both in 2021 and 2022. However, they have a real chance of picking first overall again. So how has this happened?
The Jaguars’ history of long suffering
One of the youngest franchises in the NFL, the Jaguars have not only struggled in recent years, but it has also been a lot longer a period of struggles since they were added to the league in 1995. Their overall record stands at 206-277, including going 8-8 in the playoffs, and they had no winning season from 2007 until 2017.
Their decade without a winning season saw some tough times. Since the 2013 season, with a top ten draft pick eight of the last 12 seasons, their current form means it is likely to be nine in 13.
After going 4-12 in 2013, they had the third overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. They took University of Central Florida quarterback Blake Bortles with that selection and the entire fanbase had hope that this would be the guy to turn the franchise around.
He would throw for under 3,000 yards in 13 starts, 11 touchdowns and 17 interceptions during his rookie season. They would go 13-13 in 2014, 5-11 in 2015 and 3-13 in 2016, earning them the third overall pick, fifth overall pick and fourth overall pick in the three drafts that followed. They had a resurgence in 2017, going 10-6 as a collapse in the fourth quarter against the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship cost them a place in their first ever Super Bowl.
Despite the loss, all seemed well with the Jaguars. Many had them as one of the AFC favourites. Bortles seemed to have turned a corner, with 21 touchdowns, 3,687 yards and 13 interceptions. However, he would last just one more season as the Jags went 3-13.
They had a seventh overall pick in 2019, and took Josh Hines-Allen with this selection, going on to finish 6-10 and earn a ninth overall pick as a result. Three straight years with two picks in the first round followed. They would win just once in 2020, which saw them take Trevor Lawrence as a result with the first overall pick.
He was seen as the biggest prospect in college since Andrew Luck. Jacksonville also hired Urban Meyer but we all know how this turned out. They won just three times in 2021 and Meyer did not even finish the season.
A second straight year with the first overall pick and an additional first rounder followed and they took Travon Walker with the top selection.
They would make the playoffs in the 2021 season, earning an infamous comeback win over the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wildcard Round. This followed a tremendous run of form in the regular season.
The aforementioned struggles since have made for quite the worrying scenario for Jags fans, who have gone 3-10 despite two first overall picks and six first rounders in total in this decade. So what has gone wrong?
Poor front office moves; needing to learn from others
The Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams have proved how to draft correctly in recent years, unlike the Jaguars.
General manager Brad Holmes and head coach Dan Campbell have drafted excellently. They used the picks given to them in the Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford trade to bolster their roster into the team it is today that currently has a 12-1 record.
The Rams gave the Lions a 2022 and a 2023 first-round pick and a 2021 third-round pick. Thanks to trades with the Arizona Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings, the latter trading for tight end TJ Hockenson, they turned these three picks into six.
With these picks, they took running back Jahmyr Gibbs, tight end Sam LaPorta, defensive tackle Brodric Martin, wide receiver Jameson Williams, defensive end Josh Paschal and safety Ifeatu Melifonwu.
Martin, Melifonwu and Paschal have only started five, 11 and 14 games respectively in the NFL due to injury problems. Williams has racked up 710 yards and four touchdowns in 2024 but has had a mixture of injuries and off the field problems. However, Gibbs and LaPorta have been monumental in the Lions’ resurgence.
Everyone laughed when the Lions took Gibbs when they had already acquired another running back during the offseason in David Montgomery. However, this RB1/RB2 tandem has been electric, with 1,787 rushing yards and 22 rushing touchdowns between them in 2024. LaPorta has also chipped in with 445 receiving yards and five touchdowns. The ability to hand off to Gibbs or find LaPorta in the end zone when Amon-Ra St. Brown is being covered, has helped Goff become an MVP candidate.
St. Brown himself is a 2021 fourth-round pick, taken in what should now be seen as the most important NFL Draft in Lions history, where they also took Penei Sewell seventh overall and defensive tackle Alim McNeill 72nd overall. McNeil recently signed a four-year $97 million extension, St. Brown has over 3,000 yards in his first three full campaigns and Sewell is arguably the team’s most important player.
The Lions and Chargers Show the Importance of Investing in the Offensive Line
The Lions took defensive end Aidan Hutchinson second overall in 2022, one pick behind the Jaguars’ selection of Travon Walker.
Walker has improved over time, whereas Hutchinson has been excellent from day one. It was somewhat of a surprise when the Jags did take him first overall and you cannot help but wonder what would have happened had they gone for the Michigan product.
The Eagles have had some fortune come their way, with several of their best draft picks being missed. Credit still goes to General Manager Howie Roseman for the picks being made. Jalen Carter fell down to ninth overall when the Eagles took him. Jalen Hurts, Dallas Goedert and Landon Dickerson were all second-round picks.
The Rams took two young defensive studs this year in Jared Verse and Braden Fiske. This in addition to getting in Byron Young and Kobie Turner in 2023. These four lead the team in sacks and only Verse was a first-round pick.
The Rams also drafted wide receivers Tutu Atwell and Puca Nacua in the 2021 second round and the 2023 fifth round respectively and have both been very productive for the team.
General Manager Les Sneed deserves a huge amount of praise. He went for the “screw them picks” method in the aforementioned Goff and Stafford trade, which allowed them to achieve their goals and win a Super Bowl, but still have managed to compete since. Despite having no first round pick from Goff in 2016 to Verse in 2024, they have still managed to find some gems.
As we have seen with the Jaguars’ poor use of first rounders and the smart use of later round selection from the Rams, Eagles and Lions, it is not necessarily important to have a selection in the top ten. If you do your due diligence and find guys that suit your culture, are the right characters and also you have the correct coaching staff in place, then you can make any player work for your team.
ANDY DAVIES
NFL ANALYST
ANDY IS A SPORTS JOURNALISM GRADUATE WITH OVER FOUR YEARS EXPERIENCE OF NFL WRITING AND PODCASTING. ANDY HAS BEEN TO EVERY NFL STADIUM AND IS THE HOST OF THE ACROSS THE POD PODCAST. HE HAS PRESS PASS EXPERIENCE AT THE LONDON GAMES AND MANY OTHER NFL BASED EVENTS, HAVING INTERVIEWED THE LIKES OF AARON RODGERS, JASON BELL, OSI UMENYIORA, DOUG PEDERSON, DERRICK HENRY, TREVOR LAWRENCE AND MIKE VRABEL