Aaron Jones is Different!

The Green Bay Packers surprised many by re-signing key offensive weapon, running back Aaron Jones to a 4 year $48,000,000 deal on the eve of free agency. The deal makes Jones the 6th highest paid running back in the NFL. It is a move that goes against conventional NFL thinking, but the contract structure, Jones’ early career usage and his skillset make this deal one you shouldn’t dismiss as poor right off the bat. In fact, it could be a masterstroke.

Jones' Importance In The Packers Offense

Waiver Wire

For years much of the media rhetoric around the Packers is the lack of weapons they have put around QB Aaron Rodgers. Whilst the pass catchers haven’t been the big names that are baselessly linked to the Wisconsin team every season, the offense has thrived under the leadership of the future first ballot Hall of Famer Rodgers and second year head coach Matt LaFleur. A huge amount of the teams success has come from the play action segment of their offense, something that doesn’t work without Aaron Jones. Jones’ versatility gives the Packers so many options when he lines up in the back field; they can motion him out to run routes like a receiver, fake the hand off and leak him out into the flat, or send him out on a wheel route. Jones runs routes and pulls off spectacular catches like an outside receiver.

Davante Adams was the only weapon more valuable for the Packers in 2020 (using Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value). Adams had an incredible All-Pro season, whilst Jones was perhaps under heralded for his role in the leagues best offense. Jones averaged slightly fewer rushes per game in 2020, and that along with the expanded passing game saw his efficiency rocket back towards the top mark of his career. Only Nick Chubb and JK Dobbins averaged more yards per attempt in 2020. If Jones can keep to this mark consistently, this contract will look like a steal.

Why This Deal Is Different

When we analyse the top seven highest paid runners in the league (Jones and Joe Mixon are tied for 6th), each of them is a feature back in their offense. Each team who has paid a running back to this level has made them the centre of their offensive scheme. What follows is a loaded box of defenders, and the early career overuse catching up with a player whose contract now looks like an anchor they are having to drag behind them. For the Packers this isn’t the case, for one reason. The Packers have Aaron Rodgers. When you’re quarterbacked by the reigning MVP, defenses can’t stack the box against your running back for fear of being picked apart by the most dangerous offensive player in football. The combination of Rodgers and Jones and their ability to keep defenders guessing make it likely that Jones won’t be the focus of the defense’s game plan – and that could be key.

The second difference in this contract is the usage factor. Through injury and near criminal underuse at the end of the Mike McCarthy tenure, Jones has only carried the ball 651 times in his four seasons. This is less than Nick Chubb in three NFL seasons, less than Derrick Henry’s last two campaigns and fewer than division rival Dalvin Cook who missed the majority of his first season with a torn ACL. Jones doesn’t have that injury history. And he also has a team mate in AJ Dillion who is going to get an extended workload in year two of his NFL career, taking the pressure off the former UTEP player.

Finally, onto the financial details, whilst Aaron Jones signed a deal worth $48,000,000 it is unlikely he gets near to earning that much unless he is still performing at the top of his game. Only $13,000,000 of the deal is guaranteed and the Packers have an out after paying up $26,500,000 over the first two seasons.

A Low Risk, Win Now Move

The Packers Super Bowl window is open, but quickly closing. The shadow of Jordan Love and a potentially messy divorce with Packers legend Aaron Rodgers looms large over the future. With maybe two more chances to win a second Lombardi in Rodgers’ tenure, the team needed to go all in. Aaron Jones is a known commodity in Green Bay, a key cog in what makes the system work, who signed at below market value for his ability to a contract with significant downside protection. This is a home run move for the Packers, one that will see Brian Gutekunst in the Executive of the Year conversation if the Packers go the whole way in 2021…

Alex Chinery

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