Can Josh Allen Get Over The Playoff Hunt Despite Head Coach Changes?

By Evan Copeland

Josh Allen. 2024 NFL MVP, winner of five AFC East division titles, the most career rushing touchdowns of any quarterback. At 6’5 and 238 pounds, alongside a tremendous talent for rushing the football, he is the epitome of the NFL’s modern dual-threat quarterback.

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Coming into his ninth season with the Buffalo Bills after being selected seventh overall in 2018, Allen has made the playoffs during all six seasons as the week one starting QB. His postseason record sits at 8-7, but the Bills have consistently come up short of even reaching the Superbowl, never mind lifting the Lombardi trophy.

Allen and the Bills’ struggles against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs continue to haunt both player and franchise. Even with Mahomes out of the playoffs last season, the Bills fell to the Denver Broncos in overtime. So, with Sean McDermott out the door and replaced by his Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady, what can we expect for the Bills in 2026?

What roster moves have Buffalo made to support Allen?

Heading into the new season, as I mentioned, Allen will have a new head coach in the form of his former Offensive Coordinator during the McDermott era, Joe Brady. Changes in Head Coach can often result in an uncertain start as the team adjusts, and that may happen in Buffalo.

But this might turn into a positive for Allen. Brady called plays as the Bills OC for years, so the team will keep the same offensive scheme while offering a fresh leadership perspective. He is one of 10 new head coaches in the league for this season but is likely to offer the most stability.

Moving onto the roster now, where he front office has made multiple changes to support Allen, both through trades and free agency. The Bills restructured their superstar’s contract to free up $40 million in cap space, alongside extensions for starting center Connor McGovern.

Buffalo sent a second-round pick to Chicago for DJ Moore, offering Allen a true wide receiver 1 for the first time since Stefon Diggs left in 2024. Adding to the defense as well, the franchise made multiple additions to the secondary, supporting their new defensive scheme.

Missing out on a first-round pick this season following multiple trades down the order, the Bills took an edge rusher and a corner with their second-round picks to further strengthen Jim Leonhard’s defense.

Where do the Bills sit among the AFC favourites?

As is becoming the norm entering every September, the Bills will find themselves amongst the consensus favourites to make a deep postseason run on the AFC side of the bracket. The first job, however, will be to reclaim the AFC East from the New England Patriots.

Drake Maye and co. ended Buffalo’s five-year streak of division titles, made the Superbowl and appear to have strengthened in the offseason. Adding AJ Brown has levelled up the Patriots offense, at the expense of a first-round pick. However, if schedule is anything to go by, they could be in for a 2026 regression, compared to last season’s relative cakewalk.

Let’s look at the other threats to the Bills in reaching a maiden Superbowl of the Allen era. While there seem to be multiple NFC teams ahead in the pecking order in the league overall (take the Rams as an obvious pick), the AFC seems more vague, with question marks surrounding several of the contenders.

First off, the historic roadblock to Allen in his championship hunt, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Kansas City’s offense has been a slow decline since Tyreek Hill was traded to Miami in 2022, culminating in the team missing the postseason for the first time since 2014. Yes, that was largely down to Mahomes going down injured in week 15, but the Chiefs were in disarray long before that.

Travis Kelce has returned to the offense for a potential final season in the league, with the franchise also adding Superbowl LX MVP Kenneth Walker in free agency. While the explosive plays of Mahomes’ early years have dried up, his tandem with head coach Andy Reid always has the Chiefs near the front of the pack.

The Ravens and Lamar Jackson will face similar question marks heading into the new season, with the John Harbaugh era over and former Chargers DC Jesse Minter replacing him in Baltimore. Minter formed a hugely successful partnership with Jim Harbaugh in Los Angeles and with the Michigan Wolverines, securing a National Championship and undefeated season in 2023.

Like Mahomes, Jackson is also coming off an injury disrupted season, with the Ravens failing to make the playoffs. The infamous missed field goal by Tyler Loop against the Pittsburgh Steelers ended their season in dramatic fashion, but in truth they were always fighting an uphill battle.

Head coaching changes in Baltimore have also brought a new offensive coordinator to the Ravens to work alongside Lamar. Both of his MVP seasons have come in his first year under a new OC, a trend Minter will hope continues into 2026. A healthy Lamar Jackson is one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the NFL, and that will see the Ravens back into contention.

Will 2026 be any different?

So, what needs to change for the Bills? They will face significant competition to even win the division, never mind the conference. That goes without mentioning the likes of the Broncos, Texans and Chargers, who are also expected to compete for the number one seed.

ESPN has the Bills with the eighth ranked strength of schedule, facing a gauntlet opening five that starts on the road in Houston. However, for Buffalo the regular season has never been the issue. They show traits of champions until January comes around but always fail to pass the final hurdle.

Allen is incredible but his failures on the biggest stage will continue to haunt him. Four turnovers in a season defining divisional matchup against the Broncos, where the AFC was missing Mahomes and Jackson is the most recent example. He and his team simply need to perform better when it matters most.

The roster is talented enough and the quarterback is a superstar. But until they can get over the hump, being Mahomes or otherwise and reach the Superbowl, Allen’s Buffalo legacy will remain a what if?

EVAN COPELAND

NFL ANALYST

Evan is a Los Angeles Rams fan and sports journalism student at Lincoln University, with a keen interest in NFL writing, alongside golf and football. You can keep up with all of his content on X at @EvanCopeland26.

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