Is this the most wide-open AFC in years?
By Andy Davies
The AFC has been dominated by two teams in the 21st century.
In the 27 Super Bowls held this century, the AFC has been represented by the New England Patriots or Kansas City Chiefs in 15 of these.
It has been a century dominated by Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Patrick Mahomes. In fact, Drake Maye, Joe Burrow, Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, Rich Gannon, Trent Dilfer and Steve McNair are the only other quarterbacks to represent the conference in the Super Bowl since January 2000.
The Chiefs have been the recent dominant force in the conference. However, after the Chiefs’ 6-11 record in 2025 and Mahomes’ return from a serious injury, there is an air of optimism that a different team could make it to the Super Bowl this season.
Could this be the most wide-open AFC in years?
New eras in Baltimore and Buffalo
The best two teams on paper in the AFC are the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills, who are slowly becoming mirror images of themselves.
Both teams have elite quarterbacks at their disposal, both who have won the Most Valuable Player (MVP) award.
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is a two-time MVP, whilst Allen’s sole pickup of the award came in the 2024 season. Both are electric on their day and have excelled in the regular season. Despite this excellence and extensive list of individual highlights, they have both failed to overcome their playoff hoodoos.
The Chiefs have been a thorn in their side, both losing to them in the AFC Championship, twice in the case of Buffalo. Even with the Chiefs down year last season, they missed their chance to finally reach a Super Bowl in their respective Lamar and Allen eras.
Baltimore failed to even make the Super Bowl, Tyler Loop’s missed kick sent the Pittsburgh Steelers into the playoffs at their expense. The Bills beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Wildcard Round but fell narrowly to the Denver Broncos in the Divisional. Both of these failings were one too many for their front offices. John Harbaugh and Sean McDermott were fired following the conclusion for the season.
Jesse Minter was hired as Harbaugh’s replacement in Baltimore. Joe Brady made the step up in Buffalo from offensive coordinator to head coach. Each go into the season as newbies to the role. This could be either the change they needed or set back the franchise.
Of course, Minter and Brady could be the fresh voice needed to lift the shackles off a stale coaching era reaching its climax. However, there is never a guarantee that a coach can make the jump up from being a coordinator to a leader of men.
With the talent both of these teams have, with Baltimore’s Derrick Henry and Buffalo’s James Cook some of the league’s best running backs, this could be a masterstroke by the organisation. On the other hand, it could be a step up too far for Minter or Brady. This could see another team capitalise.
Could another team capitalise in the AFC?
Should the Ravens and Bills struggle under new stewardship, there is a chance for other teams to step in and make the most of their chance.
The Broncos were last season’s number one seed in the conference. Had it have not been for Bo Nix’s injury at the end of their Divisional Round win over the Bills, they could have very easily been the team to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LX.
They will be eager to one better this time around. They will be victims of their own success, with a much harder schedule in 2026. With their defense, they can overcome this. Operating a 3-4 defensive formation, Sean Payton has turned this defense into one of the game’s best.
Denver possess Zach Allen, Jonathon Cooper (not withstanding a potential ban), Alex Singleton, Nik Bonitto, Pat Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga. These are some pieces that will cause sleepless nights for opposition quarterbacks and offensive coordinators.
Adding in Jaylen Waddle to join a wide receiver room that already featured Courtland Sutton will make this Denver offense, seen as the weaker of their two units, even stronger.
The Houston Texans have arguably the league’s best defense. Mistakes from their quarterback C.J Stroud cost them when it mattered most. He recorded four interceptions in their 28-16 Divisional Round loss to the Patriots back in January.
If Stroud can become more frugal with the ball, this is all that the Texans need given their defense. With players like Will Anderson Jr at their disposal, this is a unit that could win them seven games alone. Provided the offense clicks and does not make too many mistakes, head coach DeMeco Ryans will feel that this team has the potential to at least reach the AFC Championship for the first time in franchise history. At that point, a Super Bowl berth is a possibility.
In the Cincinnati Bengals, their biggest question mark is whether Burrow can stay healthy.
He has played a full season just three times in his six-year NFL career to date. In two of those three seasons, Burrow has reached the AFC Championship, winning one and losing one.
It’s simple. If Burrow stays on the field, the Bengals will be a team to challenge the AFC, especially given their softer schedule in 2026. He has the best wide receiver tandem in the league, being afforded the luxury of throwing to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. All five starting offensive lineman return for the first time since he become a pro and the team has invested heavily in defense.
Head coach Zac Taylor could still be the team’s biggest hinderance, but they will be the last team you will want to face if they get hot.
Can the Chiefs get back to their previous form?
One of these teams that could be ready to capitalise are the Chiefs.
NFL fans have very short memories. It was only 18 months ago when they were one game away from achieving a historic three-peat.
Since their Super Bowl LIX loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Chiefs have seen a decline, with a 6-11 record. They were struggling even when Mahomes was on the field. His second ending injury put pen to paper of any late season heroics.
If Mahomes gets back to his 2024 and earlier self, then this Chiefs team should never be disregarded. In Andy Reid, they have one of the league’s best head coaches and tight end Travis Kelce has the talent and mentality to also return to form in what could very easily be his last season as an NFL player.
Mahomes has won a Super Bowl throwing to the likes of Mecole Hardman, Karadius Toney and Juju Smith-Schuster. He hoisted two Lombardi Trophies after the team traded away wide receiver Tyreek Hill. The former Texas Tech QB has proved time and time again, that he can make it work with a poor supporting cast. Whether he can do it again is a question for another day, but you should never write of the organisation as long as number 15 is under centre.
Every team in the AFC has their question marks, and this is a year for the conferences that could be at is most open.
ANDY DAVIES
NFL ANALYST
ANDY IS A SPORTS JOURNALISM GRADUATE WITH OVER SIX YEARS EXPERIENCE OF NFL WRITING AND PODCASTING. ANDY HAS BEEN TO EVERY NFL STADIUM AND IS THE HOST OF THE ACROSS THE POD PODCAST. HE HAS PRESS PASS EXPERIENCE AT THE LONDON GAMES AND MANY OTHER NFL BASED EVENTS SUCH AS SUPER BOWL LIX AND LX, HAVING INTERVIEWED THE LIKES OF AARON RODGERS, JUSTIN JEFFERSON, JASON BELL, OSI UMENYIORA, PATRICK MAHOMES, TRAVIS KELCE, DERRICK HENRY, SAQUON BARKLEY AND JALEN HURTS.