Ranking least to most likely teams to go from worst to first in 2026
By Andy Davies
One of the biggest strengths that the NFL possesses is parity.
Dynasties have existed in the salary cap era, such as the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs in the 21st century. However, there have been six different winners in the past 10 Super Bowls and it took 19 years for there to be a repeat winner.
The NFL also sees many division winners crowned, a year after going last in their division. Since the beginning of the 2020 campaign, there has been only one season where at least one team hasn’t gone from worst to first.
In 2025, the Patriots and Chicago Bears achieved this feat, the former going all the way to Super Bowl LX in San Francisco. The 2026 season is likely to also see a team go from worst to first in their division, given the constant change of dynamic in the league. But who is the most likely?
Here is a ranking of the least to most likely teams to go from worst to first in their division in the 2026 season.
8th - Arizona Cardinals
Not only are the Arizona Cardinals the bookies’ favourites to have the first overall pick in 2027, but they are also in the NFL’s toughest division.
In the NFC West, they are joined by the reigning Super Bowl champions in the Seattle Seahawks. The division also features the favourites to win it all this season in the Los Angeles Rams, along with the San Francisco 49ers who have a whole array of talent at their disposal.
The Kyler Murray era is over, with Jacoby Brissett or rookie Carson Beck handed the keys to a weak roster. Whilst they do have exciting rookie running back Jeremiyah Love, wide receiver Marvin Harrison and tight end Trey McBride, seen by many as the NFL’s best tight end, elite talent elsewhere is hard to come by.
Along with a rookie head coach in Mike LaFleur, this is a Cardinals team that is very unlikely to challenge in 2026, in a difficult division and with the league’s toughest schedule on paper. With their three aforementioned division opponents to play twice a year and games against the Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos, Chiefs, Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys, there are very few games that they have a realistic chance of winning.
Ceiling: Five wins
Floor: Zero wins
Predicted record: 2-15 and fourth in NFC West.
7th - Cleveland Browns
In the biggest blockbuster trade of the 2026 offseason, long serving defensive end Myles Garrett was traded to the Los Angeles Rams.
Selected first overall in 2017, Garrett has lived up to his draft position and has gone on to become today’s best defensive player, receiving two of the past three Defensive Player of the Year awards.
The Browns received the Rams’ Jared Verse as part of the trade, which stops them being ranked eighth. His product on the field, and age, means that the Browns may have won the trade long term, but there will be severe issues on the field in 2026.
No more so than at the quarterback position, with both Shedeur Sanders and Deshaun Watson having their limitations.
Ceiling: Seven wins
Floor: Two wins
Predicted record: 4-13 and 4th in AFC North
6th - New York Jets
Whatever the New York Jets try to do, they seem to find new ways to lose football games.
Not even a four-time Most Valuable Players recipient in Aaron Rodgers could help them turn their fortunes around. His season ending injury just four plays into his debut is arguably the biggest visual representation of their bad luck in the past 30 years.
The Jets drafted well this year, taking linebacker David Bailey, tight end Kenyon Sadiq and wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr in the first round. There is hope for the future, with three first rounders once again in 2027 thanks to the Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams trades.
Despite this, their short-term future is unlikely to see five wins, let alone a division title or more. Garrett Wilson is a top tier wide receiver, but there are very few pieces elsewhere that should give their fanbase much hope for the 2026 season,
Ceiling: Six wins
Floor: Two wins
Predicted record: 4-13 and third in AFC East.
5th - Tennessee Titans
A lot of the Tennessee Titans’ success in 2026 will be hang in the balance of the progression of quarterback Cam Ward.
Ward showed signs in his 2025 rookie year but failed to show this on a consistent basis.
He was not helped by his surroundings, one that saw Brian Callahan lose his job less than two seasons into the role after their Week Six loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. New head coach hire Robert Saleh failed to bring the good times back to the Jets, but who hasn’t failed at the Jets since they won Super Bowl III in the 1960’s.
The addition of wide receiver Carnell Tate out of Ohio State fourth overall will be a much-welcomed weapon for Ward, but there are still so many holes in the roster.
Ceiling: Six wins
Floor: Three wins
Predicted record: 4-13 and fourth in the AFC South.
4th - Las Vegas Raiders
It has been quite the offseason for the Raiders.
With the first overall pick in the NFL Draft, they took their quarterback for the future in Fernando Mendoza.
$281.5 million was also spent in Free Agency. The likes of Nakobe Dean, Tyler Linderbaum, Kwity Paye, Kirk Cousins and Quay Walker were all signed, with the expectation of star defensive end Maxx Crosby departing.
A deal was agreed between the Raiders and Baltimore Ravens, and Crosby was in Maryland. The move fell through and Crosby remained in Vegas.
With Crosby and all of the Free Agency additions, this is a Raiders team that will be much improved in 2026. The performances of Cousins, who is widely expected to start for the majority of the season, is likely to impact their chances of ever challenging for a playoff berth. The same can be said for the strength of the division, with the Chiefs, Chargers and Broncos all expected to challenge for the postseason.
Ceiling: Nine wins
Floor: Four wins
Predicted record: 6-11 and fourth in the AFC West.
3rd - New Orleans Saints
It was a season of two halves for the New Orleans Saints in 2025. After going 2-10 to start the season, they won four of their last five games to finish 6-11.
Quarterback Tyler Shough saw a major improvement, ending the season as a Rookie of the Year nominee. There are a lot of expectations from Saints fans that he can continue his development into his sophomore campaign.
There have been some positive additions for the Saints in 2026, drafting highly rated wide receiver Jordyn Tyson eighth overall. He could prove to be an excellent WR2 alongside Chris Olave.
Running back Travis Etienne was signed for $52 million over four years, and linebacker Kaden Ellis signed for $33 million across three years. The Saints also traded for Raiders defensive end Tyree Wilson.
There are still many holes to their roster. However, they are in one of the league’s more favourable divisions. Whilst they could have the same amount or less wins than the Raiders, the weakness of the NFC South could allow them to challenge for a division.
The Atlanta Falcons, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers are far from perfect teams. There is a chance of anyone winning this division.
Ceiling: 10 wins
Floor: Four wins
Predicted record: 6-11 and fourth in the NFC South.
2nd - New York Giants
If there was one reason why the New York Giants could surprise people this season, it is the arrival of John Harbaugh as head coach.
Whilst Harbaugh’s time at the Ravens came to a disappointing end, fired after failing to make the postseason last season. He will be buoyed by a fresh location and new lease of life, and he is a major upgrade on any head coach the Giants have had in the past 10 years.
Harbaugh brings a lot of leadership and experience to the role, with a Super Bowl XLVII ring. He also guided the Ravens to the playoffs in 12 of his 18 seasons in the role, six of these in the past eight campaigns.
On the field, he will be able to work with some excellent talent. There is a good core of players, provided they all stay healthy.
Quarterback Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo both showed promise in their rookie years but will want to avoid any more time in the medical tent.
Wide receiver Malik Nabers missed most of 2025 through injury, a year removed from a brilliant 2024 rookie campaign. This offseason, the Giants have added further talent to their offense, adding tight end Isaiah Likely from the Ravens and selecting highly rated offensive lineman Francis Mauigoa 10th overall in this year’s NFL Draft.
On defense, they took edge rusher Arvell Reese fifth overall, to compensate for the loss of Dexter Lawrence on the interior, who they traded to the Cincinnati Bengals, compensation they used on Mauigoa.
With Abdul Carter and Brian Burns already on the defensive side of the ball, this Giants team can become a unit that could shock a lot of people in 2026. The additions of Greg Newsome and DJ Reader this offseason, as well as Tremaine Edmunds, add value and experience to the roster.
They will be in a tough NFC East division, which could hinder their chances of challenging. The Eagles still remain very strong, the Cowboys drafted well and the Washington Commanders are only two seasons removed from making the Conference Championship game. We could see them become a surprise outfit once again if quarterback Jayden Daniels remains healthy.
The NFC East is expected to be a strong division in 2026. Whilst the Giants are probably not going to win their division, it would not be a shock at all given Harbaugh’s resume if they were to finish first.
Ceiling: 12 wins
Floor: Six wins
Predicted record: 10-7 and third in the NFC East.
1st - Detroit Lions
2025 was a beyond disappointing campaign for the Detroit Lions.
One year after securing the number one seed in the NFC with 15 wins and two years after reaching the Conference Championship game, the Lions went 9-8, missed out on the playoffs and finished last in the division.
In their NFC Championship collapse against the 49ers, they allowed a 24-10 halftime lead to slip before the third quarter even ended. Whilst the franchise bounced back to go 15-2 the following campaign, many feel that they may not have had a better chance to reach their first ever Super Bowl than in that game at Levi’s Stadium.
However, their division has some limitations that could see the Lions get back to becoming division champions.
The Minnesota Vikings quarterback room leaves plenty to ponder and the Green Bay Packers are expected be missing linebacker Micah Parsons for half of the 2026 season. Chicago are the team most people have down to win the NFC North, but they won a lot of games with late heroics. It is not always easy to continue this.
With an easier schedule than their division rivals due to their last place finish last season, this Lions team have all the tools to return to their 2023 and 2024 form. After all, their nine-win season would have won them the NFC South last season. They are in a way, victims of their division.
The Lions have lost David Montgomery to Free Agency and center Frank Ragnow to sudden retirement, which could be a problem for Detroit in 2026. However, they still have Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown for quarterback Jared Goff to throw to. With Penei Sewell protecting their QB, they will always be competitive. No team stands a better chance to go from worst to first in 2026 than Dan Campbell’s team.
Ceiling: 14-3
Floor: Eight wins
Predicted record: 13-4 and second or first in the NFC North.
ANDY DAVIES
NFL ANALYST
ANDY IS A SPORTS JOURNALISM GRADUATE WITH OVER SIX YEARS EXPERIENCE OF NFL WRITING AND PODCASTING. ANDY HAS BEEN TO EVERY NFL STADIUM AND IS THE HOST OF THE ACROSS THE POD PODCAST. HE HAS PRESS PASS EXPERIENCE AT THE LONDON GAMES AND MANY OTHER NFL BASED EVENTS SUCH AS SUPER BOWL LIX AND LX, HAVING INTERVIEWED THE LIKES OF AARON RODGERS, JUSTIN JEFFERSON, JASON BELL, OSI UMENYIORA, PATRICK MAHOMES, TRAVIS KELCE, DERRICK HENRY, SAQUON BARKLEY AND JALEN HURTS