2026-02-11
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By Adam Murfet
Mock drafts are rarely about predicting what will happen. They’re about exploring what should happen. Where team needs, roster timelines, and player development curves collide.
This exercise is grounded in structural needs, positional value, and how NFL teams actually behave when they’re on the clock. Quarterback desperation still dominates. Trenches remain the quickest way to stabilise bad teams and extend competitive windows. And versatile defenders continue to rise as offenses become faster and more horizontal.
The 2026 class reflects that shift. This is not a top-heavy quarterback group in the traditional sense, but it is a class rich in players who can immediately change the efficiency profile of a unit.
That’s why this mock leans heavily into need-meets-identity, prioritising functional building blocks over flash. Throughout this mock, players are selected not just on raw talent, but on how their skill sets project into the roles they’d be asked to play on Sundays. Production matters, but so does how that production is achieved. Pressure rates over sack totals. Separation and route tempo over raw yardage. Consistency and processing over occasional splash plays.
There’s also an intentional avoidance of hindsight drafting. This isn’t about forcing last year’s problems into this year’s solutions. It’s about reading where teams are headed, not just where they’ve been. Front offices don’t draft in isolation – they draft with contracts, cap cycles, and coaching philosophies in mind.
Ultimately, this mock is a thought exercise rooted in realism. Some picks will age well. Others won’t. That’s the nature of projection. But every selection here is defensible, contextual, and aligned with how NFL teams actually attempt to close the gap between potential and performance.
That’s the lens this mock is viewed through; not certainty, but structure.
Quarterback need trumps everything, and the Raiders can’t keep kicking this can down the road. Mendoza has quietly put together one of the most efficient profiles in college football: career completion rate north of 67%, strong intermediate accuracy, and a pressure-to-sack rate that suggests real pocket feel rather than manufactured production.
This isn’t a traits-only swing. Mendoza processes quickly, keeps the offense on schedule, and doesn’t crater when protection breaks down – something Las Vegas has struggled to mask. He may not be a superhero, but he’s exactly the kind of stabiliser this roster has been crying out for.
Linebacker isn’t glamorous, until you don’t have one. The Jets’ second level has been leaky in both run fits and coverage spacing, and Reese gives them a true three-down answer.
At Ohio State, Reese consistently flashed elite sideline-to-sideline range, strong processing vs RPO looks, and closing burst that shows up on tape and in tracking data. He upgrades their run defense immediately and allows the Jets to stay in lighter boxes without getting punished.
Arizona pivots to the trenches here, and it makes a lot of sense. Bain gives them exactly what this defense lacks: a legitimate edge presence who can win without scheme help. At Miami, Bain consistently created pressure off the snap with first-step explosiveness and heavy hands, posting strong pressure rates despite regular attention from protections. His ability to convert speed to power shows up repeatedly on tape, particularly against tackles who overset.
The Cardinals were one of the worst teams in the NFL at generating pressure with four rushers. Bain directly addresses that. He allows Arizona to stay sound on the back end while still collapsing the pocket. Something this defense has struggled to do consistently. This is a tone-setting pick. Less about flash, more about structural change.
Tennessee needs juice. Bailey brings it. Bailey’s pressure numbers don’t just come from volume. His win rate vs true pass sets is what stands out. He can stress tackles vertically, flatten at the top of the arc, and doesn’t disappear against the run. For a Titans defense lacking consistent edge disruption, Bailey immediately raises the floor.
The Giants need a receiver who can win early and win clean. Tate does both. At Ohio State, Tate consistently separated against man coverage, particularly on in-breaking routes and option concepts. His target-per-route efficiency suggests a player quarterbacks trust, not just a downfield athlete. This pick is about giving the offense a reliable first-read weapon, not chasing highlight reels.
Cleveland’s offense only functions when the trench integrity holds. Mauigoa is technically advanced, powerful through contact, and far more polished than most college tackles entering the league.
His pass-set depth and anchor strength project well to the NFL, and his run-blocking tape shows consistent displacement rather than flash reps. This is a long-term stabiliser pick. It might be boring. But it is necessary, and smart.
Downs is one of the cleanest evaluations in this class. Elite processing, elite angles, elite reliability. Washington’s defense has lacked a true back-end organiser, and Downs gives them someone who can rotate post-snap, erase explosive plays, and still trigger downhill in the run game. Safeties like this don’t miss.
Running back value is contextual, and this context matters. The Saints need offensive spark and efficiency, not just touches. Love brings explosive rate, receiving versatility, and zone-run vision that fits New Orleans’ current blocking schemes. He doesn’t need 25 carries a game to matter, and that’s exactly why this works.
Kansas City never stops investing in the trenches. Faulk fits the Chiefs’ mould perfectly: long, violent hands, and disruptive even when he doesn’t finish the play.
His interior-edge flexibility allows Steve Spagnuolo to keep creating pressure with numbers rather than blitz dependency. Another year, another defender who somehow gets better in January.
Woods gives Cincinnati something they’ve lacked: interior disruption that doesn’t sacrifice run integrity.
He wins with leverage and strength rather than gimmicks, and his run-stop win rate jumps off the page. With the Bengals needing to protect leads late, this is about controlling games, not just chasing sacks.
Speed everywhere, but it only works if you can cover. McCoy’s man-coverage tape is outstanding, particularly against vertical threats. Miami’s defense asks corners to survive on islands, and McCoy’s footwork, recovery speed, and ball skills fit that profile cleanly.
Dallas needs athleticism and multiplicity in the middle. Styles gives them both. A former safety, Styles thrives in space, carries tight ends with ease, and still triggers downhill with intent. His versatility allows the Cowboys to disguise fronts and coverages without subbing. A big deal for a defense that wants to dictate tempo.
The Rams need secondary reinforcements badly. This is why they are not Super Bowl champions right now. Delane is a smooth mover with excellent route recognition and patience at the line.
He doesn’t panic at the catch point and consistently forces contested throws. For a defense built on pressure and timing, that calm matters.
Baltimore never overthinks this stuff. Ioane is powerful, technically sound, and nasty in the run game. His ability to generate movement on double teams while holding firm in pass protection fits exactly what the Ravens want to be offensively. Plug-and-play.
The Bucs need the next wave on the edge. Howell’s production doesn’t rely on schemed pressure. He wins one-on-one, converts speed to power, and plays with relentless effort. With Tampa needing to keep defensive efficiency high without selling out, Howell is a clean projection.
Back to offense for the Jets. Lemon is dynamic after the catch, wins quickly underneath, and adds a YAC element this offense sorely lacks. His yards per target on short-area throws stand out, giving the Jets a way to stay efficient without forcing hero ball.
Detroit builds forward, always. Proctor is massive, but his movement skills are what sell the evaluation. He holds up against power and doesn’t get exposed laterally. This is about sustaining dominance, not patching holes.
The Vikings need more coverage answers, full stop. Terrell plays with confidence and physicality, particularly in press looks. His ability to disrupt timing at the line gives Minnesota flexibility to be more aggressive up front.
Carolina needs safety valves and mismatch creators. Sadiq gives them both. He’s a fluid mover with strong hands and genuine seam-stretching ability. In an offense searching for identity, a tight end who can dictate matchups matters.
Dallas doubles down on defensive versatility. McNeil-Warren brings range, tackling reliability, and strong processing. He allows the Cowboys to stay flexible in coverage without sacrificing run support.
The Steelers don’t chase chaos at quarterback. They chase traits that scale. Simpson has improved year-on-year, showing better anticipation and pocket control. With Pittsburgh’s infrastructure, this is a development bet that makes sense and he doesn’t need to start right away.
Protection remains priority one. Herbert is an elite quarterback who did not have the protection required to allow him to make enough plays. Pregnon’s balance and hand placement show up consistently, and his ability to anchor against interior pressure fits what the Chargers need to keep their offense functional.
Philadelphia doesn’t apologise for trench obsession. Lomu is strong, athletic, and technically reliable. This is about future-proofing the line and keeping the offense structurally sound.
Boston gives Cleveland a separator who thrives on timing routes. His ability to uncover quickly fits an offense that needs efficiency rather than volatility.
Chicago needs more interior disruption. McDonald brings leverage, strength, and consistent gap control. He won’t headline highlight reels, but he’ll change run fits every snap.
The Bills need another weapon who can win early in the route. They need to surround Josh Allen with playmakers. Concepcion’s route tempo and catch-point reliability give Buffalo more answers against two-high looks.
San Francisco stays on brand. Freeling’s athleticism and reach blocking ability fit perfectly in a scheme that values movement as much as power.
Houston continues stacking the front. Hunter brings penetration ability and disruption that complements their existing pieces, keeping the defense aggressive without overexposure.
More coverage help for a defense in transition. Cisse’s length and ball skills give the Rams developmental upside with immediate sub-package value.
Denver needs reliability at linebacker. Allen diagnoses quickly, tackles cleanly, and keeps the defense organised. Sometimes that’s the upgrade.
The Patriots look to re-establish defensive pressure. Mesidor’s length and power profile fits a scheme that values discipline as much as disruption.
Seattle closes the round with secondary help. Hood’s competitiveness and recovery speed fit a defense that asks corners to be aggressive and resilient.
Co-creator and co-host of the 5 Yard Rush Podcast and writer for FantasyPros
Murf has been podcasting and writing about NFL for the past nine season and can be seen guesting on the college daze podcast on the Nat Coombs show with Ben Issacs and Dom Corbett. He can be found on X (@5yardrush) or via FantasyPros
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