ACC Championship Game Preview: Virginia vs. Duke: Head-to-Head, Stats, and Prediction Ahead of Title Decider

A new name will join the illustrious list of ACC Champions as the Cavaliers and Blue Devils compete for their first championship since the ACC Championship Game was introduced.

Virginia ranks No. 17 in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings (No. 16 in the UK & Ireland Top 25 Rankings) and knows it will head to the College Football Playoff with a victory. However, the ACC risks missing out altogether if Duke wins, as two other conference champions are likely to rank higher than the Blue Devils.

Conference executives will be rooting for a Virginia win to secure a berth in the 12-team Playoff. But all signs point to a closer contest than the one in November.

Virginia ran away with a commanding 34-17 victory, only surrendering three points in the first three quarters, but with Darian Mensah under center, Duke has an electrifying passing attack. The 6’3″, 202-pound redshirt sophomore transferred from Tulane after throwing for 2,723 yards and 22 touchdowns in 2024, and has continued his stellar play in Durham, leading the ACC in both passing yards and touchdowns this season.

The Blue Devils lead the ACC in total passing yards (3472) and rank second in points scored per game (35.58). Duke turns games into a shootout, rather than winning with defense. Mensah provides explosive offense as the Blue Devils average 0.27 EPA per dropback (second in the ACC).

Tight end Jeremiah Hasley leads the conference with an EPA per target of 1.09 and leads an abundance of receiving weapons for Mensah to target.

However, the Virginia offense has been clinical without being as explosive. The Cavs went 4-2 in one-score games in 2025, averaging 33.17 points per game through the regular season (fourth in the ACC). J’Mari Taylor led the conference with 997 rushing yards and has the most yards after contact in the league (708). The productive running back will be critical as Virginia looks to control the clock and limit the number of possessions Duke has to play with.

The 5’9″, 204-pound senior transferred from FCS North Carolina Central, where he rushed for 1,146 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2024. Taylor earned First-Team All-ACC honors and needs just three yards to become the first UVA running back since 2018 to eclipse 1,000 yards in a season.

The offenses are evenly matched, but it could be the defense that decides this game.

Duke allows a conference-high 22.3 first downs per game, while ranking 14th in the ACC with 414.7 total yards allowed per game. Furthermore, the Blue Devils average 29.4 points per game, while Virginia allows only 20.0.

The Cavs have the defense to limit Mensah and the best completion percentage allowed this season (58.8%), but they will need both sides of the ball to turn up.

Virginia has the worst third-down conversion rate in the ACC (27.3%), whereas Duke has the highest (46.2%).

If the Cavaliers execute, they have the talent to win this game. But even a slight imbalance could sway the result in Duke’s favor.

Prediction: Virginia 33, Duke 24