Big 10 Weekly: Private equity investment paused as disharmony reigns
The College Football Playoff is on the horizon, and the stakes are at their highest. However, this week’s headlines have been dominated by a private equity deal that offered an immediate funding boost to the conference, which was put on the back burner after the UC Pension Fund got cold feet. There’s more on that and the action on the field in this week’s Big 10 Weekly.
Michigan and USC dissent causes funding deal to fall through…for now
It’s impossible to ignore the big news in the Big 10 this week. However, many professional writers have covered the subject in much more detail than I will, so before giving you the shorthand version, I’ll point you in their direction. Both Stewart Mandel and Ralph Russo have written pieces on The Athletic, as well as a fantastic podcast that dug into the nitty-gritty of the whole thing, so check them out!
The skinny of it all is that the Big 10 was on the precipice of a vast $2.4bn deal with the University of California pension fund. It would have provided each Big 10 team with an immediate cash injection, and in exchange, the fund would receive 10% of all future TV rights. Although the funds would be distributed unevenly, with the bigger brands getting more, it offered long-term security to the teams considered ‘less desirable’.
However, the UC pension fund this week announced it would be pausing its interest given the outspoken opposition of two of the conference’s biggest schools. USC were unhappy as they were not originally considered a top-tier school and therefore would not receive the maximum compensation. For Michigan, the viewpoint was that the deal offered short-term benefits but was effectively selling the family jewels for cheap.
Of course, Michigan have little to worry about in terms of financing or long-term security. The Maize and Blue has mass appeal; they will never find themselves cut adrift or on the outside looking in. Locking themselves into the Big 10 would prevent them from moving to a potential ‘Premier League’ style with only the biggest brands present, or simply existing as an independent – Notre Dame style.
As teams do battle in the NIL era, revenue is king, and this deal would have offered the likes of Maryland, Rutgers and Purdue a chance to keep pace with SEC rivals, as well as guaranteeing them a seat at the top table. As so often in politics, those at the top ultimately make the decisions. It’s not to say private equity won’t keep digging around, but for now, the Big 10 remains as is.
Penn State on alert as Franklin starts new gig
James Franklin’s announcement as the new Virginia Tech head coach had several implications for his old team, Penn State, this week. First of all, the hire offset the Nittany Lions’ buyout to the tune of around $40 million. But the picture is not all rosy in Happy Valley.
As the coaching search remains in first gear for Penn State, Franklin got straight to work. He headed back to his old campus, picking off two of the key members of the off-field staff—GM of Personnel and Recruitment, Andy Frank and Chief of Staff Kevin Threlkel. Ok, so that alone isn’t a reason to panic; this is a new dawn, and a new head coach is likely to want to be surrounded by fresh faces.
The biggest concern is that those two, plus Franklin, have the inside track on all of Penn State’s recruiting class. They wasted no time attacking it, as reports emerged that 3-star Mathieu Lameh and 4-star safety Matt Sieg are commits Franklin is seeking to flip. With 4-star OT Kevin Brown decommitting already, the Nittany Lions need to steady the ship.
That’s even before we get to transfer portal time. Franklin is likely already sounding out his lieutenants from this year about a potential move to Virginia Tech. The race is now on for the Nittany Lions to find a head coach and help him keep both his roster and recruiting class together. If they don’t act swiftly, the long-term damage could be severe.
A Pac-12 rivalry in Big 10 Clothing
The tests keep coming for USC as they slowly climb up the top 25 rankings, eyeing a spot in the College Football Playoff. Last week, they overcame Iowa, and now they have a chance to take down Oregon on the road and leap into the top 10. It’s a traditional Pac-12 rivalry that has been transported to the Big 10, and it is undoubtedly the biggest game of the weekend.
So what are the key battles to keep your eye on:
Jayden Maiava vs Dante Moore
As the season has gone on, USC QB Jayden Maiava has grown into his role as signal caller for the Trojans. After a difficult afternoon against Notre Dame, Maiava bounced back, and last week against the Hawkeyes, he had four big-time throws and graded at 88.4 with PFF. With elite weapons like Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane, Maiava is beginning to thrive.
Moore, too, has been impressive for the most part. His two blips came against Indiana, where he spent the afternoon under constant pressure, and Iowa, where the conditions were against him. He remains relatively inexperienced, but with a couple more big games, his draft stock could continue to soar and even exceed Indiana rival Fernando Mendoza.
USC run game vs Oregon defense
Oregon have the third-ranked defense in the country, finding a way through them won’t be easy, even for a team as talented as USC. Although all the focus will be on the gifted wideouts, Lincoln Riley needs to establish the run to get the best from his offense. The emergence of freshman King Miller has been positive, but he didn’t pass 100 yards last week. If the Ducks can slow him down, they can drop more men into coverage and muddy the picture for Maiava.
Oregon run game vs USC defense
Just as USC need to open up the passing game via the run, so do the Ducks. They can lean on a committee approach; they have three running backs that have over 400 yards rushing this year, all of them averaging over 7 yards per carry. Noah Whittington will likely get the most carries while they rely on freshman Jordon Davison in the redzone. While the QBs will take top billing, whoever succeeds on the ground will likely triumph.
Best of the Rest
Elsewhere, the other Big 10 fixtures mainly involve teams battling for bowl berths. Ohio State is a 30+ favourite once again in an early kickoff vs Rutgers, no slip-ups needed with Michigan on the horizon. Likewise, Michigan visit Maryland needing a win to keep hopes of a CFB Playoff berth alive. If they can roll the Buckeyes next week, they will be in the conversation.
Matt Rhule gets a shot at the team who were heavily linked to him, Penn State. Having had his contract extended, Rhule can focus on getting the Cornhuskers to a high-profile bowl. They’ll lean heavily on Emmett Johnson with Dylan Raiola out for the year. For the Nittany Lions, pride is all that’s at stake.
Luke Fickell also has job security and assurances that Wisconsin will financially back him next year. He hopes to gather some momentum in the last couple of games and take down Illinois, which is having another strong year and could be targeting a New Year’s Six bowl berth.
Full Weekend Slate
Rutgers @ Ohio State
Minnesota @ Northwestern
USC @ Oregon
Michigan State @ Iowa
Michigan @ Maryland
Nebraksa @ Penn State
Illinois @ Wisconsin
Washington @ UCLA
Rory-Joe Daniels
NFL & Cfb contributor
AS A LONG-SUFFERING CINCINNATI BENGALS FAN, RORY HAS FOLLOWED THE NFL FOR OVER 20 YEARS. HIS PASSION FOR THE DRAFT LED HIM TO GET ENTANGLED WITH COLLEGE FOOTBALL AND HE HAS BEEN WRITING ABOUT PROSPECTS AND THE CFB LANDSCAPE EVER SINCE.